Africa

How have Russia’s policies in the Middle East changed since the Arab uprisings?

Comparing Russia’s policies between 2011-15 and 2015-21

The response of the Russian government to the Arab uprisings that began in January 2011 has aimed primarily at protecting its interests in the Middle East, including security and economic objectives.[1] Nonetheless, it has pursued different approaches over time: an initial period of observation and political pressure between 2011 and 2015, followed by more active policies thereafter. This essay explains the reasons for this shift and argues that Russia’s policies since 2015 are likely to continue, despite domestic and external challenges.

Tchad : quels risques après la mort d’Idriss Déby ?

Que s’est-il passé ?

Selon des sources officielles, le président tchadien Idriss Déby Itno est décédé mardi 20 avril vers 1 heure du matin, à la suite de combats entre l’armée tchadienne et la rébellion du Front pour l’alternance et la concorde au Tchad (FACT), non loin de Mao dans la région du Kanem, au centre du pays. Au pouvoir depuis 30 ans, Déby venait tout juste d’être réélu pour un sixième mandat consécutif. Sa mort a été annoncée à 11 heures du matin, sur l’antenne de la télévision nationale, par le porte-parole de l’armée, le général Azem Bermandoa. Certains observateurs émettent des doutes sur cette version des faits et présentent d’autres hypothèses, non confirmées, sur les circonstances de sa mort, notamment celle d’une réunion de négociations avec des membres du FACT qui aurait tourné à la fusillade.

US-Proposed Afghan Peace Huddle Postponed

The United Nations said Wednesday a multi-nation conference that the organizers had hoped would “add momentum” to the faltering peace talks between Afghanistan’s warring parties has been postponed.

Turkey, Qatar and the U.N. had planned to convene the 10-day event, proposed by the United States, in Istanbul starting this Saturday.

Mali Soldiers ‘Killed, Mistreated, Disappeared’ Dozens of People: HRW

The armed forces of Mali are responsible for dozens of cases of killings, mistreatment, and disappearances during counterterrorism operations in the country’s central Mopti region, Human Rights Watch (HRW) said on Tuesday.

In a press release, the international nongovernmental organization claims that Malian soldiers have taken the lives of at least 34 villagers, caused the disappearance of more than 16 people, and severely mistreated several detainees.

Thousands Flee Renewed Clashes in Central African Republic

The U.N. refugee agency reports renewed fighting between government forces and rebel groups in Central African Republic has sent more than 2,000 refugees fleeing for their lives to neighboring Chad this past week.

Newly arriving refugees have been telling aid workers in Chad of the mayhem engulfing their region. The refugees, who come from CAR’s northern Kaga-Bandoro region describe shocking acts of violence, looting and extortion by rebel groups as government forces were closing in on them.

Armed group takes control of county in western Ethiopia – rights commission

An armed group has taken control of a county in western Ethiopia, the state-appointed Ethiopian Human Rights Commission said, citing reports that civilians had been killed and public servants kidnapped.

The commission said it had received reports that Sedal Woreda, in the Kamashi Zone of the western Benishangul-Gumuz Region, was “under near full control of an armed group as of April 19”. It did not say which armed group it was referring to.

Climate Change Amplifies Instability in Africa

Climate change is straining livelihoods across broad swaths of Africa, intensifying instability in multifaceted ways. The continent’s ability to adapt to and mitigate these effects will have global repercussions.

Climate change is inherently unfair. It tends to most affect the poorest countries that have the lowest carbon emissions. By adding pressure to already strained environmental and economic systems, climate change exacerbates resource competition, intercommunal grievances, state fragility, and other vulnerabilities. Countries in conflict, in turn, are less able to focus on conservation and long-term adaptation.

Deby’s Death Heightens Uncertainty in Chad, West Africa

Chad strongman Idriss Deby’s death on April 20, allegedly in combat with rebel forces that had crossed over from Libya, is bad news for the immediate struggle against jihadi radicalism in Nigeria, Niger, and Cameroon. The news is also unwelcome for France and the United States.

Deby had been a staunch ally against jihadi radicalism in the Sahel, and especially against Boko Haram and its factions. His army, the beneficiary of substantial French investment, is commonly regarded as the best in the region. Chad hosts the headquarters of the French Operation Barkhane, numbering just under 5,000 fighters. Deby cooperated with the U.S. military, allowing it to maintain a drone base to aid in the fight against jihadism. The French government has stated that “France lost a brave friend” and that France supports Chad’s “stability and territorial integrity.”

Deby is an example of the dilemma faced when the United States, France, and other Western powers tie themselves to autocratic strongmen—for that is what Deby was. He ruled Chad for a generation, faced numerous attempted coups, and manipulated the constitution and the electoral process to, in effect, make himself president for life. He also accumulated an estimated personal fortune of $50 million in one of the poorest countries in the world. Domestic opposition had been growing.

His immediate placeholder, the “National Council of Transition,” appears to be beholden to the military. It has made Deby’s son the interim president, itself a coup: under the constitution that role falls to the speaker of parliament. For now, it looks like the essence of the Deby regime will continue.

But what about the rebel columns advancing on N’Djamena? The ambitions and grievances that drive them presumably do not go away with Deby’s death; France and to a lesser extent Nigeria will likely be decisive as to what happens next on that front. As for the Chadian people, initial reports are of fear of the unknown, especially the possibility of civil war.