Africa

Deby’s Death Heightens Uncertainty in Chad, West Africa

Chad strongman Idriss Deby’s death on April 20, allegedly in combat with rebel forces that had crossed over from Libya, is bad news for the immediate struggle against jihadi radicalism in Nigeria, Niger, and Cameroon. The news is also unwelcome for France and the United States.

Deby had been a staunch ally against jihadi radicalism in the Sahel, and especially against Boko Haram and its factions. His army, the beneficiary of substantial French investment, is commonly regarded as the best in the region. Chad hosts the headquarters of the French Operation Barkhane, numbering just under 5,000 fighters. Deby cooperated with the U.S. military, allowing it to maintain a drone base to aid in the fight against jihadism. The French government has stated that “France lost a brave friend” and that France supports Chad’s “stability and territorial integrity.”

Deby is an example of the dilemma faced when the United States, France, and other Western powers tie themselves to autocratic strongmen—for that is what Deby was. He ruled Chad for a generation, faced numerous attempted coups, and manipulated the constitution and the electoral process to, in effect, make himself president for life. He also accumulated an estimated personal fortune of $50 million in one of the poorest countries in the world. Domestic opposition had been growing.

His immediate placeholder, the “National Council of Transition,” appears to be beholden to the military. It has made Deby’s son the interim president, itself a coup: under the constitution that role falls to the speaker of parliament. For now, it looks like the essence of the Deby regime will continue.

But what about the rebel columns advancing on N’Djamena? The ambitions and grievances that drive them presumably do not go away with Deby’s death; France and to a lesser extent Nigeria will likely be decisive as to what happens next on that front. As for the Chadian people, initial reports are of fear of the unknown, especially the possibility of civil war.

Libya welcomes UN decision to deploy cease-fire monitors

Libya’s transitional government on Saturday welcomed a U.N. Security Council decision to deploy international monitors to watch over a nearly six-month-old cease-fire in the conflict-stricken country.

The Government of National Unity also urged the council to help get mercenaries out of the oil-rich country, as it heads toward December elections after a decade of fighting and upheaval.

The U.N. Security Council unanimously approved Secretary-General Antonio Guterres’ recent proposal for up to 60 monitors to join an existing political mission in Libya.

The monitors would arrive in an “incremental deployment … once conditions allow,” according to the council’s British-drafted resolution. The council also urges all foreign forces and mercenaries to get out of the country, as was supposed to happen months ago.

The vote, announced on Friday, was conducted by email, due to the coronavirus pandemic; the results were announced at a brief virtual meeting.

The interim government, which took power last month, expressed its willingness to facilitate the work of the U.N. monitors.

It also said it would would provide “all financial and logistic” capabilities to the country’s elections authority to hold a “fair and transparent” vote on Dec. 24.

Libya has been plagued by corruption and turmoil since a NATO-backed uprising toppled and killed longtime dictator Moammar Gadhafi in 2011. In recent years, the country was split between a U.N.-supported government in the capital, Tripoli, and rival authorities based in the country’s east.

Each side was backed by armed groups and foreign governments. The U.N. estimated in December there were at least 20,000 foreign fighters and mercenaries in Libya, including Syrians, Russians, Sudanese and Chadians.

In April 2019, east-based military commander Khalifa Hifter and his forces, backed by Egypt and the United Arab Emirates, launched an offensive to try and capture Tripoli. His 14-month-long campaign collapsed after Turkey and Qatar stepped up their military support of the U.N.-backed government with hundreds of troops and thousands of Syrian mercenaries.

The cease-fire agreement, reached in October, called for the foreign fighters and mercenaries to leave within three months. No progress was made in that regard.

The cease-fire deal has dramatically reduced civilian casualties, but the U.N. has continued to document killings, forced disappearances, sexual violence, arbitrary arrests, hate crimes and attacks against activists and human rights defenders in Libya, U.N. special envoy Jan Kubis told the council last month.

Tunisia divers find another body from migrant boat; 22 dead

Navy divers recovered another body on Saturday from a migrant boat that floundered and sunk off the coast of eastern Tunisia, bringing to 22 the number of known dead, including nine women and a baby, as police searched for the smuggler.

An estimated 40 people were aboard the boat which sank Friday off the coast of Sfax in the Mediterranean Sea and the search for the missing continued, according to Ali Ayari, spokesman for the port city’s National Guard.

Also sought is a Tunisian said to have been the main smuggler and two others from sub-Saharan Africa, Ayari told The Associated Press. A Tunisian middleman has been arrested, he added.

“The boat took on water shortly after leaving the Sidi Monsour beach, near Sfax, which leads one to think the migrants were (victims) of a scam,” Ayari said.

The craft was allegedly headed to Italy, a main destination for migrants taking to the Mediterranean from this North African country and looking for a foothold in Europe to escape poverty or conflict.

On March 9, two boats ran aground in the same area, killing 39 people with 165 others rescued. Most people aboard were from sub-Saharan Africa.

New clashes in Mozambique three weeks after Palma attack

New clashes have erupted in the town of Palma, Mozambique, three weeks after a jihadist attack left dozens of people dead and forced thousands to flee their homes.

MAPUTO – New clashes have erupted in the town of Palma, Mozambique, three weeks after a jihadist attack left dozens of people dead and forced thousands to flee their homes, military and security sources said.

Heavy loss of life feared in clashes between Chad herders, farmers

Clashes between sedentary farmers and semi-nomadic herders in southeastern Chad have left many dead in recent days, humanitarian and human rights sources said Sunday.

The two groups have a long and troubled history in the region, where weapons abound and violence often flares after cattle destroy crops.

Can Turkey rely on Libyan PM to guarantee its strategic interests?

Ankara’s two critical deals with Tripoli remain in limbo even though Libya’s new prime minister raised Turkish spirits during a much-hyped visit this week.

A high-profile visit by Libya’s new interim prime minister, complete with economic accords, has cheered Turkey up, but Ankara’s interests in the war-torn country remain far from guaranteed amid a flurry of rival diplomacy ahead of Libya’s elections in December.

Ethiopian Survivors Retell Horrors Of Last Month’s ‘Houthi Holocaust’

When Abdel Karim Ibrahim Mohammed, 23, fled the recent violence consuming Ethiopia’s Oromia region, he never imagined he would fall into the hands of Yemen’s Houthis.

In fact, like many of his compatriots desperate to escape conflict-ridden Ethiopia, he had not even heard of the Iran-backed militia, which seized control of Yemen’s capital Sanaa in 2015.

Kenya: Battle For Power And Wealth Fuels Kapedo Conflict – Analysis

Government and local leaders should prioritise boundary demarcation and security to resolve the deadly border dispute.

The killing of a senior police officer in Kenya’s Kapedo area on 17 January is just the latest attack in a longstanding brutal conflict. Those responsible control the disputed Kapedo area that borders Baringo and Turkana counties.

It Is Time to Rethink U.S. Strategy in the Sahel

If Washington wants to play an effective role, it needs less counterterrorism, better diplomacy. Here are four ways to get there.

Close to 10 years after the French military intervention pushed al-Qaida affiliated fighters out of northern Mali, the Sahel region continues to make headlines with the world’s fastest growing Islamist insurgency and one of the world’s most severe humanitarian crises. Across the region, insecurity and socio-political instability continue to reach new heights. Yet, unrelenting setbacks in the fight against terrorism are undermining political support for international actors within a region where a donor “traffic jam” is currently at play. For these reasons, a change in international policy toward the Sahel is not only necessary, it has become inevitable.

WFP: Millions in West, Central Africa Facing Hunger Emergency

The United Nations World Food Program warns that millions of people in West and Central Africa are facing catastrophic levels of hunger driven by conflict and soaring food prices.

More than 31 million people, an increase of 10 million over last year, are expected to be unable to feed themselves during the upcoming June to August lean season. This period precedes the next harvest and is the time of year when food stocks in West Africa are at their lowest.