Africa

The Impact of Russia’s Invasion of Ukraine in the Middle East and North Africa

The war in Ukraine that followed the Russian invasion is still in its early stages. While it is too soon to measure the war’s full impact on crises in the Middle East and North Africa, it is clear that the repercussions will be multidimensional. For now, its effects are limited in the military sphere, but noticeable in the political realm as conflict actors reposition themselves vis-à-vis one another and the outside world. For the region’s economies and its already strained social contracts, the consequences may be devastating.

Russian Mercenaries in Great-Power Competition: Strategic Supermen or Weak Link?

Along with China, Iran, and North Korea, Russia is one of a handful of strategic competitors posing a substantial threat to U.S. strategic interests.

Russia has now interfered to some extent in at least three democratic elections in the United States. Russian hackers are probably responsible for the recent SolarWinds attack on U.S. government agency networks. Russia has been aggressively undermining U.S. interests in proxy wars in Syria, Libya, and across the African continent, and it is backing the Taliban against the United States in Afghanistan.

Russia’s new world order is bad news for Africa

Rather than following the lead of despots like Putin and Xi, Africa should chart its own path.

On March 30, just a day after a Russian missile hit an administrative building in the port city of Mykolaiv in southern Ukraine, killing at least 12 people, Russia’s Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov made the case for the establishment of new world order. In a videotaped message to his Chinese counterpart Wang Yi, Lavrov claimed the world is “living through a very serious stage in the history of international relations”. He added, “We, together with you, and with our sympathisers will move towards a multipolar, just, democratic world order”.

Analysts Warn Tunisia Risks Drifting Back to Pre-Revolutionary Era

Political analysts say a quest for ever-greater power by Tunisian President Kais Saied risks sending the nation back to pre-revolutionary times of “strongman” rule.

On Wednesday, Saied announced changes regarding the coming legislative elections. Tunisians will now vote for individuals instead of lists in a two-round ballot. He also indicated there would be changes to the Independent Electoral Commission, which he said would supervise the election but not with its ”current composition,” Reuters reported.

Kaduna’s train attacks add to Nigeria’s deep security problems

The brazen targeting of transport and state infrastructure reflects a security breakdown that threatens lives and economic prospects.

On 28 March, bandits attacked a Kaduna-bound train in central Nigeria carrying 970 passengers. At least eight people were killed, and 168 were kidnapped and are still missing. This unprecedented act of violence, attributed to the failure of authorities to act on intelligence reports, has heightened concerns about a breakdown of security in the country.

Dialogue with jihadists: Mauritania offers lessons for the Sahel

Mauritania’s strategy of preventing radicalisation drastically reduced youth recruitment by terrorists and helped prevent attacks since 2011.

If a decade of military operations hasn’t resolved the disastrous security crisis in the Sahel, could talking to the jihadists help bring peace? Dialogue isn’t a new idea, but Western partners have long opposed it, especially France. As their influence declines, the notion is becoming less taboo.

Hybrid warfare – Africa beware

The recent Mali case shows that countries undergoing transition or conflict mediation are susceptible to hybrid threats.

Africa is rapidly becoming a theatre for hybrid threats. Allegations of state-backed information campaigns designed to ramp up divisions in Mali and cyber attacks on humanitarian relief organisations such as the International Committee of the Red Cross (ICRC) are examples. The use of drones as weapons in the Horn of Africa, Sahel and Mozambique by violent armed groups, state actors or their proxies also signals this emerging trend.

Africa: Could Russia’s War in Ukraine Derail Africa’s Global Partnerships?

The African Union will struggle to ensure partners stick to their promises in a tough new international environment.

A week before Russia invaded Ukraine on 24 February, Africa and Europe agreed on a ‘joint vision’ spanning economic growth, security and climate change. War in Ukraine may not directly influence continental relations but could damage bilateral ties. The agreements could also be affected by the global economic impact of the crisis.

Biden’s budget proposal would slash military aid to Tunisia

Tunisia’s president further cemented his hold on power this week as US lawmakers urged the Biden administration to scrutinize its security aid to the country.

The Biden administration has proposed cutting US military aid to Tunisia by nearly half as the North African country’s leadership continues on the path toward authoritarianism.

Nigeria Security Tracker Weekly Update: March 26–April 1

Below is a visualization and description of some of the most significant incidents of political violence in Nigeria from March 26 to April 1, 2022. This update also represents violence related to Boko Haram in Cameroon, Chad, and Niger. These incidents will be included in the Nigeria Security Tracker.