Mali : plus de 322 000 réfugiés et demandeurs d’asile accueillis

Le Mali accueillait 322 584 réfugiés et demandeurs d’asile au 30 septembre 2026, en plus de 414 524 déplacés internes, selon les données présentées lundi à Genève par la délégation malienne à la 77e session du Comité exécutif du Haut-Commissariat des Nations Unies pour les réfugiés (HCR).

Sahel central : les déplacements forcés ont presque doublé en cinq ans

Au Burkina Faso, au Mali et au Niger, près de quatre millions de personnes sont aujourd’hui déplacées de force, contre deux millions en octobre 2020. L’insécurité et les chocs climatiques aggravent la crise au Sahel central, tandis que le manque de financements humanitaires fragilise l’aide aux populations.

Au large de Djibouti, au moins 139 migrants meurent dans le naufrage de leur embarcation

Le bateau de fortune transportait 305 personnes de Djibouti vers le Yémen, selon les survivants du naufrage cités par l’Organisation internationale pour les migrations.

Au moins 139 personnes ont péri, et 84 autres sont portées disparues, en raison du naufrage d’une embarcation de fortune dans la nuit du 8 au 9 octobre, au large de Djibouti, a fait savoir l’Organisation des Nations unies (ONU), dimanche 11 octobre.

The UAE And The Horn Of Africa’s Perfect Storm – Analysis

Key Takeaways:

  • Dawit Giorgis argues the Horn of Africa is becoming a global choke-point crisis as attention shifts from Hormuz: he blames Ethiopia’s Abiy government, AU alignment with Addis, thin U.S. grasp of the ground, and the UAE under MbZ as a “sub-imperial” actor via DP World ports (Berbera, Bosaso, Assab) and proxies.
  • He says a UAE–Saudi split now fuels Sudan (UAE–RSF vs Saudi tilt to SAF), Yemen spillover at Bab al-Mandeb, and Ethiopian fighting, including alleged UAE drones from Bahir Dar hitting Sudan; EPFAS (Fano, TPLF, OLA) is framed as a united opposition Abiy cannot beat.
  • The essay urges Europe to use finance, trade, and IMF/World Bank leverage on Abu Dhabi and Addis, warning state collapse in a country of ~135 million could drive a huge Sahara-to-Mediterranean refugee wave.

Egypt’s spy chief warned Israel of major Hamas attack days before 7 October, report says

Egypt warned Israel of a possible major Hamas attack, the latest report suggesting a security failure amid pressure on Netanyahu to face an independent inquiry

Egypt’s then-intelligence chief travelled to Israel 11 days before Hamas’s 7 October 2023 attack and warned that the group appeared to be preparing a major assault, according to an investigation by The Atlantic.

How Tigray’s renewed fighting could spread in Horn of Africa

The fresh hostilities in Ethiopia’s Tigray region come after months of growing animosity between rebel forces and the federal government. Horn of Africa expert Martin Plaut warns of possible regional spillover.

Fighting has erupted again in Ethiopia’s northern Tigray region. Tigrayan forces launched a major offensive on September 23, with fighting also reported in the neighboring regions of Afar and Amhara.

Ceuta: Spain On Alert Over New Migrant Influx

Key Takeaways:

Spanish Foreign Minister José Manuel Albares said Madrid is working daily with Morocco’s Nasser Bourita to block a possible new rush on Ceuta after social media calls to storm the border on Sept. 23, Morocco’s election day.
He said those posts have less reach than before the July surge, when about 80,000 irregular migrants entered the exclave and more than 100 people died; Rabat has been asked to reinforce the frontier.
Declassified Spanish reports called Morocco’s July response passive or worse and alleged forces helped usher people forward—claims Rabat denies. Albares cited an Aug. 15 halt of thousands as proof of later cooperation and said Morocco is “receptive” on disinformation.

La nouvelle frontière de la Russie en Afrique

Alors que la stratégie russe visant à étendre son influence au Sahel s’effondre, Moscou change de cap pour employer les mêmes tactiques consistant à attiser la contestation envers la démocratie et à promouvoir la cause du régime militaire dans les démocraties des pays côtiers d’Afrique de l’Ouest.

Spanish Secret Services Warned Of Imminent Mass Influx Into Ceuta

Key Takeaways:

Spain released classified files showing CNI warnings before the July 30 surge when about 80,000 people entered Ceuta. Agents flagged social-media calls to cross by fence and sea around 8 p.m. during Morocco’s Throne Day.
The messages described large online followings and possible entries by swimming or over the fence, and a CNI memo was also sent to Moroccan security services.
Sánchez says the papers show the government was not properly warned; Interior Minister Grande-Marlaska says intelligence did not alert them, while Defence Minister Robles says CNI did. Coverage notes the declassification is incomplete.

AI Helps Terror Groups Plan, Execute Attacks

Key Takeaways:

A Cambridge study by Antonia Juelich, based on interviews with 27 former Boko Haram and ISWAP members in northeastern Nigeria (last active in 2024), says those groups now use general AI chat tools not only for propaganda but as a routine “problem-solver” for planning and technical questions. She argues earlier assessments understated how systematic that use has become.
The report claims specialized units and internal training, plus help from foreign IS trainers with laptops and accounts. Interviewees described current content filters as inconvenient rather than blocking: rejected queries are retried on other accounts or recast as fictional. Rand’s Steph Guerra separately notes safeguards are split across firms and countries and work better against lone actors than well-resourced groups.
Neither group is reported to have obtained CBRN weapons. Juelich’s policy point is that companies and governments need stronger, coordinated limits as models improve—without treating AI-aided terrorism as a future problem only.