On February 25, Syria held a National Dialogue Conference, which is supposed to help the country come together after years of civil war and the toppling of the Assad regime. Syria’s new president, Ahmad Shara’a, spoke at the event and warned that Syria must not be partitioned.
“Syrian history has gone through many challenges and transformations over a century, from the colonial era to political disorder, passing through the United Arab, then a-Baath Party, to the rule of the two Assads,” he said. Today, Shara’a and his administration face the challenge of trying to unite Syria while not ending up with multiple crisis on his hands in various regions.
Syria’s New Struggles
Shara’a wants to rebuild Syria and has been doing outreach to achieve results. For instance, he has visited Saudi Arabia and Turkey, two important powers that form pillars in the region. Both countries are partners of the United States, Turkey via NATO, and Saudi Arabia through a historic friendship dating back a century. As such, Syria is seeking to ingratiate itself with the West and Western friends in the region. Turkey has the economic power and expertise to invest in Syria’s infrastructure and reconstruction. Saudi Arabia has the finances to help that investment.
However, Damascus’s current challenge is much more complex than convincing countries to invest. For instance, Syria needs to get European countries and the US to end sanctions. Europe is easing sanctions on Syria. “The European Union on Monday began easing energy and transport sanctions and banking restrictions against Syria, aiming to help breathe life into the conflict-torn country’s economy if its new leaders work toward a peaceful future,” the Associated Press reported.
This sounds like good news for Damascus. However, it is correctly predicated on a “peaceful future.”
Syria is trying to hold dialogue with various people in the country to get to a peaceful future. Shara’a says he wants people to “stand together, united and cooperating.” The challenge for unity now is the fact that Syria remains divided on multiple levels.
For instance, in eastern Syria, the area is controlled by the US-backed Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF). This group is linked to the Autonomous Administration of North and East Syria (AANES), the civil authority. Eastern Syria has had this autonomy since 2015, when the SDF was created and began pushing ISIS out of cities in the east. In 2019, the SDF’s operations against ISIS culminated along the Euphrates river near Baghouz. Tens of thousands of ISIS members and their families are still held in various camps and prisons in eastern Syria.
The Future is Unclear
The future of eastern Syria is unclear. The SDF is powerful, but it also relies on backing from the US for some of what it seeks to accomplish. This has been challenged by Turkey, which backs a group called the Syrian National Army. That group controls areas in northern Syria and has been attacking the SDF for much of the last decade. Turkey backs the SNA not only as a way to have a proxy for Syria but also because Ankara views the SDF as linked to the Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK), which Ankara views as a terrorist group. As such, Ankara accuses eastern Syria of being run by “terrorists.”
Turkey is close to the new rulers in Damascus because Shara’a ran Idlib province for many years close to Turkey when Shara’a was head of Hayat Tahrir al-Sham. HTS drove into Damascus unopposed on December 8, 2024, when the Assad regime collapsed after HTS had launched a surprise attack on Aleppo in late November 2024.
The issue facing Shara’a is that any reconciliation with eastern Syria and attempt to incorporate the SDF into some umbrella security force would likely be opposed by Turkey. The only way this might not happen is if Ankara agrees to a deal with the PKK in which the PKK lays down its arms. Another challenge for Damascus regarding Ankara is trying to get its new security forces to run affairs in areas where the SNA is dominant. Damascus has sent forces into Afrin in northern Syria but has had trouble making a deal with the SNA in other areas.
Northern and Eastern Syria aren’t the only hurdle for the new rulers in Damascus. In southern Syria, the Druze minority residing in and around Suwayda also want more of a voice in the new government. They also appear to want more autonomy. In the last month, Damascus has been unable to find an accommodation. Meanwhile, Israel has demanded southern Syria be demilitarized. Israel’s foreign minister slammed Shara’a, claiming that he came to power via “a jihadist Islamist terror group from Idlib, that took Damascus by force.” These developments don’t point to any kind of positive engagement between Jerusalem and Damascus.
Therefore, the challenge in southern Syria has become more complex for Shara’a. Not only must he try to figure out how to thread the needle of accommodating the Druze minority, but he also has to deal with Israel’s increasingly more assertive policy. Further to the north of Suwayda are US forces at Al-Tanf Garrison. These forces are a remnant of the war on ISIS when the US was working with Syrian rebel groups to fight ISIS. The US forces are near the Jordanian and Iraqi border. However, they remain in Syria, backing a group called the Syrian Free Army. This group has hundreds of fighters and has positive relations with Shara’a and the new government.
However, the question for Damascus will be how it wants to work with US forces in Syria. The US continues to carry out operations. Over the last two months, US Central Command has carried out at least three strikes in northern Syria targeting a group called Hurras al-Din, which is linked to Al Qaeda. Shara’a will likely welcome having the US eliminate extremist groups that might cause him a headache. However, a spotlight on US involvement could lead to questions about whether the US intends to stay or leave Syria.
All of these processes add up to a new crossroads in Syria. Damascus will need to find a way to work with the SDF. It didn’t include Kurdish parties in the recent dialogue conference, which leads to questions about whether it intends to respect the authorities in eastern Syria.
In addition, Shara’a will need to reconcile with other minorities such as the Druze. If he is moderate, he will enable some forms of autonomy. However, if he becomes convinced that these groups are “partitioning” Syria, then it could lead to conflict.