Lebanon: Eyes on Hezbollah, allies after Hariri resignation

Three scenarios emerge as Prime minister’s departure ushers in period of horse-trading among major political players.

Beirut, Lebanon – With the recent resignation of now-caretaker Prime Minister Saad Hariri amid unprecedented protests, Lebanon is entering a phase of political wrangling in which Hezbollah and its allies will be decisive.

Iran’s IRGC has long kept Khamenei in power

In an Oct. 2 speech to the top commanders of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), Iran’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, asked them to be ready for “big events.” In characteristically vague language, Khamenei was issuing a warning to his domestic opponents, President Hassan Rouhani, and the country’s foreign foes. His choice of speaking to the IRGC bosses was anything but coincidental.

The US has a partner in eastern Syria — provided it has the will

The Trump administration inherited a number of complex problems in the Syrian file from its predecessors in the White House. In dealing with the Syrian crisis, the Obama administration had three main priorities: not disturbing Iran in Syria during the process of nuclear negotiations, working with Russia toward a ceasefire in various parts of Syria (without trusting that Russia could deliver or should have the upper hand), and, most importantly, carrying out a limited military intervention in the northeast to defeat ISIS — an issue it considered separately from the Syrian crisis.

Saudi Arabia’s quick fix of Yemen’s southern conflict will face a durability problem

After violent confrontations with the government of Yemen and repeated struggles for autonomy, members of the Southern Transitional Council (STC), which represents a political movement that calls for secession, appeared satisfied with the terms of a deal that will be signed with the government of Yemen in Riyadh on Oct. 31. The Saudi-brokered agreement united the conflicting parties in their fight against the Iran-backed Houthis, with a strong vision aimed at stopping any side-show that could endanger this effort.

In Middle East: Pull Down Facades

The state-controlled media in Tehran are advising the “authorities” in Beirut and Baghdad to crush the popular uprisings “by all means necessary”. One of Tehran’s Iraqi propagandists even advised Prime Minister Adel Abdul Mahdi “to kill leaders of sedition (fitna)” who had gathered in a restaurant in Baghdad.

Candid assessment of Libyan energy sector at Tunis forum

Calls were made at a two-day Libyan energy forum held in Tunis on 20-21 October for a return of an oil ministry and for the national electricity company GECOL to be split into three separate companies covering transportation, generation and distribution. There were also calls for the authorities to open the door to greater private sector involvement in both the oil and electricity industries.