Author: M Barbu

Special Analysises

New Reports Suggest New Clashes in Northern Syria Imminent

On Friday, Syrian state-run news SANA reported that the Israelis conducted an airstrike in the suburbs outside of Aleppo in southern Syria. The target was the town of al-Safirah where the Syrians once had a major missile production facility. SANA quoted an unnamed military source who said that “at 1:30 am at dawn on Friday, the Zionist enemy launched an air aggression [sic] targeting the vicinity of Aleppo city with a number of missiles.” The source added that “the army air defenses confronted the aggression and shot down the majority of the missiles.” However, the Syrian military always claims to shoot down the “majority” of incoming missiles and those boasts are generally ignored by the majority of military analysts. The Syrian Observatory for Human Rights (SOHR), the U.K.-based watchdog for the Syrian civil war, reported that its personnel heard loud explosions in Aleppo city and the surrounding countryside in the early hours of Friday morning. They said that the Israeli rocket attack, the fourth in the past month on Syrian territory, did in fact lost some missiles due to Syrian air defenses. SOHR’s report stated that the Israeli missiles hit the area of “Defense Factories” near al-Safirah in the eastern countryside of Aleppo, where Iranian-backed militias are located. No casualties or material damage have been reported. On September 3, SOHR reported that supposed Israeli airstrikes pounded the positions of Iranian forces and Iranian-backed militias in the al-Thallathat area in al-Bokamal desert in the eastern countryside of Deir Ezzor. SOHR personnel on the ground documented the killing of nine Iranian-backed militia members; several others were wounded in this attack. Furthermore, SOHR sources reported that jets, said to be Israeli, also targeted a base that housed Iraqi Hezbollah troops about five kilometers away from Qallat al-Rahbah on the outskirts of al-Mayadeen city in Deir Ezzor. That attack left seven more militia fighters dead. The death toll in the airstrike is expected to rise because of the serious injuries of some casualties.

On September 2, Israeli airstrikes hit the perimeter of T4 Tiyas airbase, which is located in the eastern countryside of Homs; they also struck Iranian and Hezbollah bases in the area. Israeli intelligence believes that the T4 airbase is where the Iranians funnel all of their weapons into the country from. Israel has carried out hundreds of air and missile strikes in Syria since the civil war broke out in 2011. It has targeted Iranian and Hezbollah forces as well as government troops loyal to President Assad. The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) did not comment on the reported airstrikes, in accordance with their policy whereby they neither confirm nor deny any operations in Syria. However, Israel has frequently stated that Iran’s presence in support of President Bashar Assad and Hezbollah is a threat and that it will continue its strikes. Recently, Israel said that Assad carries all responsibility for anything that any foreign entity conducts inside the Syrian territory. Meanwhile, in Idlib province, SOHR reported that the Russians conducted two airstrikes in the area between Idlib city and Sheikh Yousef village. No casualties have been reported. The Idlib Post tweeted a video on Friday allegedly capturing one of the Russian strikes in northern Syria. On Wednesday, SOHR reported that five Russian jets flew over the “de-escalation zone,” and conducted several airstrikes on the western outskirts of Idlib city and the hills of Kabani in Jabal al-Akrad in northern Latakia. In addition, SOHR personnel also reported Russian reconnaissance drones flying over the “de-escalation zone,” along with renewed rocket attacks by regime forces on positions in Jabal al-Zawiyah in southern Idlib. Both the Syrian regime forces backed by the Russians and the Turkish military are moving troops near Idlib. All signs are pointing to a renewed push by Assad for Idlib.

Special Analysises

The Anti-ISIS coalition

On 3 September, the Presidential Council (PC) of the Government of National Accord (GNA) announced that the GNA’s Minister of Interior (MoI), Fathi Bashaagha, had been re-instated in his role after being suspended the previous week. The announcement came after a five-hour hearing concerning the recent protests in the western region and the response and role of the security forces. On 7 September, the GNA’s Operation Volcano of Rage (VoR) announced through its spokesperson, Mohammed Gununu, that it had taken down a helicopter belonging to the Libyan National Army (LNA) near the Sirte-Jufra frontlines. However, other reports suggest that the helicopter undertook an emergency landing south of Abu Grein. On 2 September, Gununu accused LNA forces of violating a declared ceasefire for the second time in 3 days. Gununu said the LNA fired six grad rockets at the positions of the GNA armed forces west of Sirte. He added that the GNA armed forces were waiting for instructions from the supreme commander on how to respond. On 4 September, the spokesperson for the Government of National Accord (GNA) Sirte-Jufra Operations Room, Abdelhadi Drah, denied reports that mercenaries from the Russian Private Military Contractor (PMC) Wagner Group had pulled out of Sirte and Jufra to Ras Lanuf that day. Drah added that the pro-Haftar Central Backup Force, positioned west of Sirte, had left to an unknown destination.

Western Response

On 6 September, delegations representing the eastern-based House of Representatives (HoR), the High Council of State (HCS), and three advisors from the eastern region began discussions under the auspices of the United Nations Support Mission in Libya (UNSMIL) and Moroccan Foreign Minister, Nasser Bourita, in the town of Bouznika in Morocco. Dialogue participants will explore ways toward a political solution to the Libyan crisis and the connected mechanisms to replace the heads of several of the current Libyan semi-sovereign institutions. On 7 September, head of the Government of National Accord (GNA), Serraj was received by Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan in Istanbul for a closed-door meeting. Serraj’s visit followed meetings between other senior Libyan officials and Turkish authorities regarding the GNA’s ceasefire announcement of 21 August. On 2 September, the acting head of the UNSMIL, Stephanie Williams, said to the UN Security Council (UNSC) that foreign supporters in Libya were helping stockpile weapons in breach of an arms embargo as coronavirus ‘spirals out control’ in the country. Williams, citing a confidential report, told the Security Council that 70 resupply flights had landed in eastern Libya since 8 July, and 30 flights and nine cargo ships had carried material to western Libya to assist the GNA in Tripoli. The report attributed these and other violations of the embargo to the Russian Private Military Contractor (PMC) Wagner Group along with Turkey, the UAE, Jordan and Qatar, as well as Russia itself. On 1 September, the High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy/Vice President of the European Union (EU), Joseph Borrel, met with head of the GNA, Serraj and head of the Turbruq-based House of Representatives (HoR) Saleh to help advance the dialogue process in the country. During the meeting, Borrel reiterated the EU’s support for an inclusive Libyan-led and Libyan-owned dialogue, and conveyed the EU’s ‘strong and unwavering commitment to preserving Libya’s territorial integrity, sovereignty and national unity.’ On 1 September, Italian Foreign Minister Luigi di Maio made an unannounced visit to Libya, where he met separately with Serraj and Saleh to discuss recent ceasefire initiatives. Serraj’s office issued a statement following the meeting that he and Di Maio had discussed ‘points of agreement’ with Saleh on implementing a permanent ceasefire and demilitarisation of Sirte and Jufra.

Isis in Action

No relevant developments.

Other Jihadi Actors

No relevant developments.

Special Analysises

Why is there a war in Syria?

A peaceful uprising against the president of Syria almost eight years ago turned into a full-scale civil war. The conflict has left more than 360,000 people dead, devastated cities and drawn in other countries. Even before the conflict began, many Syrians were complaining about high unemployment, corruption and a lack of political freedom under President Bashar al-Assad, who succeeded his father, Hafez, after he died in 2001. In March 2012, pro-democracy demonstrations erupted in the southern city of Deraa, inspired by the “Arab Spring” in neighbouring countries. When the government used deadly force to crush the dissent, protests demanding the president’s resignation erupted nationwide. The unrest spread and the crackdown intensified. Opposition supporters took up arms, first to defend themselves and later to rid their areas of security forces. Mr Assad vowed to crush what he called “foreign-backed terrorism”. The violence rapidly escalated and the country descended into civil war.

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Kevin Rudd on ‘an Infinitely More Assertive China’ Under Xi Jinping

“What we’ve seen is an infinitely more assertive China,” says Kevin Rudd, president of the Asia Society Policy Institute and former prime minister of Australia, in assessing the country’s evolution under Xi Jinping. As a result, Mr. Rudd is not surprised by how rapidly the consensus view of China has shifted, with strategic competition having replaced win-win cooperation as the buzzword in the capitals of Western and Asian democracies.

După modelul lui Putin, Erdogan şi-a făcut armată privată de mercenari pentru a reînvia gloria apusă a Imperiului Otoman şi pentru a se menţine la putere

Grupul militar privat Sadat, compus din mercenari şi format după modelul armatei private a liderului de la Kremlin, Wagner, este folosit de preşedintele Turciei în războaiele din Siria şi Libia, duse spun unii pentru restabilirea gloriei de altă dată a Imperilului Otoman.

Mali: vers une transition de deux ans sous la conduite des militaires?

La question est posée après l’avis donné par des experts nommés par les colonels. Leur proposition de deux ans figurerait dans la « charte de la transition » actuellement en discussion.

Qui va diriger la transition ? Cette question est au centre de la réflexion d’une centaine de responsables réunis à Bamako. La proposition qui leur a été faite ? Une transition de deux ans sous la conduite d’un président désigné par la junte, avant un retour des civils au pouvoir.

Le Mali est-il notre Afghanistan ?

En 2013, Paris intervenait militairement dans ce pays ébranlé par un putsch, en partie occupé par des djihadistes et miné par la corruption. Sept ans plus tard, un coup d’Etat vient de renverser le président, les terroristes sont encore actifs, et la corruption règne toujours en maître.

La France peut-elle quitter le Mali?

Quarante-cinq soldats ont été tués dans le cadre des opérations militaires françaises au Mali depuis 2013. Lourd bilan. Après le coup d’Etat du 18 août, l’armée française doit-elle rester ? Dans quelles conditions ?