Libya Update
Negotiations Run Aground, Threatening Political and Economic Stalemate
A fragile ceasefire signed in October is holding in Libya, and thus far renewed conflict has been averted. But tensions remain high, especially as the year is about to end with no substantial progress in political and economic negotiations that were supposed to pave the way for reunifying a country that has been divided in two, with rival governments and parallel financial and military institutions, since 2014. UN-mediated talks to appoint a unity government are faltering, as delegates have so far failed to agree on how to choose candidates for senior positions. A temporary deal on oil revenues in September enabled the resumption of production and exports and helped de-escalate military tensions in central Libya. But that agreement is unravelling, and new and even more serious financial troubles could ensue. As the window of opportunity for political and economic reconciliation appears to be closing, negotiations risk producing an unstable stalemate that could give rise to a new round of violence.