As the U.S. prepares to withdraw from Afghanistan, China seeks to leverage opportunities for influence while avoiding potential security risks.
In early June, foreign ministers from China, Afghanistan, and Pakistan met to discuss how to maintain security amidst a U.S. troop withdrawal.
ISWAP has killed Boko Haram leader and longtime nemesis, Abubakar Shekau, and seeks to take over his faction’s bases in Nigeria.
With the potential collapse of Shekau’s Boko Haram faction, ISWAP will be less distracted from implementing its civilian-centric insurgency strategy.
Some portion of Shekau’s remaining faction could defect to ISWAP, making the group more dangerous and strengthening the insurgency.
The Nigerian military is yet to indicate any change in its strategy as a result of Shekau’s death.
Abubakar Shekau was Boko Haram’s first leader after the group launched an insurgency that started in Nigeria and subsequently spread to Niger, Cameroon, and Chad, beginning in approximately 2010. Shekau soon gained a reputation as one of the world’s most brutal terrorist leaders, killing sub-commanders for frivolous infractions and slaughtering Muslim civilians who steadfastly refused to join his interpretation of “jihad.” As a result, a faction called Ansaru broke away from him in 2012, with the approval of al-Qaeda. However, the Chibok kidnapping of almost 300 schoolgirls in 2014 – in which Shekau claimed to “enslave” the mostly Christian girls – garnered Shekau the international notoriety he retained until his recent death. By that time, Shekau had also ordered the killings of Ansaru members, which led to that faction’s diminishment.
The Nigerian government announced multiple times since 2010 that Shekau was dead only to see him boast that he was still alive in online videos. However, last month, Nigerian publication HumAngle, which has insider sources to Shekau’s rivals in Islamic State in West Africa Province (ISWAP), also reported his death. As the source of Shekau’s death was for the first time not the Nigerian government, but a credible independent news source, it appeared plausible that Shekau was indeed deceased. Subsequent audiotapes from ISWAP’s leadership confirmed that ISWAP killed Shekau on orders from the so-called Islamic State. Back in August 2016, ISIS’ former “caliph” Abubakar al-Baghdadi personally ordered Shekau’s ejection from ISWAP due to Shekau’s excesses, including sending hundreds of girls on suicide bombing operations that killed Muslim civilians.
According to ISWAP, after its fighters invaded Shekau’s bases in Sambisa, Borno State with support from some Shekau faction collaborators, in May, Shekau detonated a suicide bomb, killing himself, rather than being captured by ISWAP. ISWAP had hoped Shekau would instead surrender, pledge loyalty to the Islamic State, and volunteer to bring his fighters under ISWAP’s authority. In his final audiotape before his death, Shekau reiterated that he was in fact loyal to Islamic State but was unwilling to submit to ISWAP leadership. Up until his death, Shekau believed that ISWAP leaders had deceived core Islamic State into recognizing their leadership of the group, bypassing his authority. ISWAP audio releases since Shekau’s death also indicate some of Shekau’s fighters in Sambisa have now joined ISWAP and are relieved to be free from the whims of his capricious command, and especially his brutality. However, Shekau’s highest ranking commander in the Lake Chad region is now fighting against ISWAP, including abducting the group’s family members, in order to avenge Shekau’s death. What remains unclear is what Shekau’s Cameroon-based fighters, who are infamous for their raids of border communities, will choose to do.
At least one of Boko Haram founder Muhammed Yusuf’s sons was believed to be with Shekau in Sambisa. It is unclear whether any of Yusuf’s sons or another Shekau loyalist will step forward to lead the faction after his death. If Shekau’s faction is unable to put forth a strong successor, the group will likely dissolve. The result could be hundreds of roving and marauding fighters who prey on and pillage from civilians without any organizational coherence or strategy, although some members would likely join ISWAP. While Shekau’s faction attempts to sort out its next step, ISWAP is seeking to consolidate in Sambisa. This provides ISWAP a dominant position throughout Borno, with only Lake Chad remaining as a contested region with the remnants of Shekau’s faction. After a lull in ISWAP attacks following Shekau’s death, the group has also restarted attacks, focusing on Diffa, Niger, Damboa, Borno, and most recently, Dikwa, Borno. Shekau’s death will allow ISWAP to continue focusing on attacks against Nigeria’s army while distinguishing ISWAP from Shekau’s methods among civilians through its civilian-centric insurgent strategy. This strategy’s main proponent, Abu Musab al-Barnawi, who is also a son of Muhammed Yusuf, was reconfirmed as ISWAP’s leader only days before Shekau’s death.
The Nigerian military does not appear to have changed its counterinsurgency strategy as a result of the confrontations between ISWAP and Shekau’s faction following his death. The government was also caught somewhat flatfooted, watching ISWAP kill Shekau even though the government had proclaimed incorrectly multiple times to have done so. Nevertheless, the key challenge for the Nigerian military is that ISWAP is not only more militarily capable than Shekau’s faction, but it is also more focused on garnering civilian support than Shekau was. ISWAP’s ability to win recruits and gain local support is what ultimately makes it a greater challenge to Nigeria’s army than Shekau’s faction ever could have been with him alive and leading the group.
Attacks by Iraqi militia, backed by Iran, on protesters and activists are destabilizing Iraq in the run-up to October 2021 national elections.
The government of Prime Minister Mustafa al-Kadhimi is attempting to marginalize the Iran-backed militias, but only enjoying mixed success.
The militias suppress any challenge to their autonomy, their linkages to Iran, or their control over economic assets and patronage networks.
Iran supports Iraqi Shia militias in order to exert influence in Iraq and achieve leverage over the United States.
Eighteen years after the U.S.-led invasion that toppled the regime of Saddam Hussein, Iraq is still struggling to achieve stability and consolidate the authority of its national government. The overthrow of the Sunni Arab-led Ba’athist regime empowered Shia politicians, many of whom had been long allied with the Islamic Republic of Iran. These political leaders fostered the formation of several Shia-dominated militias nominally under state command, but which are armed and advised by Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC). The militias have become spearheads for Iranian influence in Iraq, acting as leverage against U.S. personnel in Iraq, and for supporting Iran’s efforts to dominate Iraq’s economy. The commanders of several of the militias have become major political actors that influence decision-making and provide patronage to their supporters in the form of government jobs and contracts, control of enterprises and import-export channels, and social benefits.
The militias have also sought to suppress a popular protest movement that began in October 2019, in part as a backlash against the stranglehold that Iran and its Iraqi proxies maintain over large parts of Iraq’s economy. The protests eventually forced then-Prime Minister Hayder Al Abadi to resign. His successor, Prime Minister Mustafa al-Kadhimi, who faces a national election battle in October 2021, has sought to hold militias accountable for abuses of activists as part of his efforts to marginalize them outright. However, the militias, and their backers in Tehran, have not bowed to the will of either Kadhimi or the protest movement. The militias allegedly have targeted – including through killings, kidnappings, and other forms of intimidation—more than 70 activists since the protest movement began.
In the latest power struggle between Kadhimi and the militias, the Iraqi government arrested pro-Iranian militia commander Qasem Muslih for the May 9 killing of activist Ihab al-Wazni in the southern city of Karbala. Wazni, a vocal critic of Iraqi armed groups and of Iranian influence in Iraq, led protests in his home city, where pro-Tehran armed groups hold considerable sway. His death sparked day-long protests in Karbala that saw demonstrators block roads and bridges and set fire to Iran’s consulate in the city. In an effort to intimidate the government to release Muslih, Shia militia fighters encircled Baghdad’s heavily fortified Green Zone, where foreign embassies and the government’s top headquarters are located. In contrast to a similar incident in July 2020, in which Shia militias succeeded in obtaining the release of an accused militia commander, the government has held Muslih in a facility partially secured by U.S. and NATO forces and has refused to release him. Still, amid tepid backing from senior Iraqi political leaders reluctant to risk a rift with Tehran or its armed Iraqi proxies, in early June Kadhimi threatened to resign unless the government gives him a free hand to confront the militias and bring them under his authority.
The confrontations between Kadhimi and the Iran-backed militias underscore the degree to which Iran seeks to use Iraq to carry out its national security policies. Iran has armed its Iraqi militia allies with sophisticated rockets, short-range ballistic missiles, and drones with which they continue to attack not only bases where U.S. forces operate, but also the U.S. Embassy in Baghdad and reportedly a facility for the Central Intelligence Agency, and installations of U.S. companies. The attacks are central to Iran’s efforts to drive the remaining 2,500 U.S. military personnel out of Iraq and to avenge the Trump administration’s strike that killed IRGC-Qods Force commander Qasem Soleimani in Baghdad in January 2020.
By providing financial and political support to pro-Iranian candidates in Iraq’s October 10 election, Iran is also likely to try to engineer the replacement of Kadhimi with a more pliant and less pro-American Prime Minister. It remains an open question whether the Biden administration will devote the resources needed to help Kadhimi challenge Tehran’s influence. Senior U.S. officials, eyeing a deal with Tehran on a mutual return to the 2015 multilateral Iran nuclear agreement, reportedly have overruled those U.S. officials who have sought U.S. retaliation against the Iran-backed militias for some of their recent attacks on U.S. installations in Iraq. Not only does the Biden administration want to reorient U.S. policy broadly away from the Middle East, but it also is intent on discontinuing the previous administration’s proxy war against Iran on Iraqi soil.
“Anywhere which was connected with these people or with these prophets who were all Muslims becomes a Muslim territory…. So any place like this [Israel] had to be freed…. had to be liberated. So, Islam appeared… from their point of view — as a liberator. And therefore, there is no Islamic occupation…. So, there is no Islamic occupation. There is only Islamic liberation.” — Moshe Sharon, Professor Emeritus of Islamic and Middle Eastern Studies at the Hebrew University of Jerusalem, YouTube, September 10, 2015.
The improvement in Iran’s technical ability to develop nuclear weapons is the result of a number of steps Tehran has taken during the past year to increase its nuclear activity, all of which constitute clear violations of the terms Tehran agreed under the JCPOA.
Consequently, if the predictions are correct and Raisi emerges triumphant in the presidential elections [June 18], the prospects of the hardliners making any tangible concessions over the country’s nuclear programme will be negligible…. [Raisi] made his name during as a prominent member of Iran’s notorious Death Commissions, when opposition activists were either executed or sent to clear minefields during the Iran-Iraq war.
Two Palestinian security officers were killed Thursday near the city of Jenin by Israeli soldiers, in a botched arrest of two other Palestinian men wanted for terrorism.
Lt. Adham Aliwi, 23, and Capt. Taysir Issa, 33, were members of the Palestinian Authority’s Military Intelligence Unit, which is tasked with coordinating military activity with Israeli forces stationed in the West Bank territories.
Iraq on Wednesday announced the release of Qasim Muslih, a prominent commander of one of several Iran-aligned Shi’ite militias operating in Iraq against American forces stationed there and against the state’s recognized government itself.
US Deputy Secretary of State Wendy Sherman on Wednesday said indirect negotiations between the US and Iran over a return to mutual compliance with the defunct 2015 nuclear deal will resume this weekend in Vienna.
The Arabs clearly see what the Biden administration, Britain, Germany and France are refusing to see — that Iran has ambitions not only to acquire a nuclear bomb, but also aggressively to export its “Islamic revolution” and terrorism on a global scale.
It is also important to note that one of the missions of Quds Force is to “liberate Jerusalem and Palestine,” a euphemism for the elimination of Israel.
“The Quds Force is in Yemen to launch attacks on Mecca and Medina and their surroundings [in Saudi Arabia]. The goal of the mullahs in Tehran is to attack Muslims and inflict the greatest possible harm on them.” — Walid Al-Ghamidi, Saudi writer, YouTube, June 5, 2021.
“The Houthi’s missiles and drones nearly hit the holy sites in Mecca and Medina. How can Iran invest in the bombing of Saudi Arabia while claiming… that it seeks to liberate Jerusalem and the Al-Aqsa Mosque? Iran’s claim to support Islamic holy sites is not related to any religious beliefs. It is related to regional ambitions, expansionist dreams, and striving to export the Iranian revolution to various countries in the region.” — Mohammed Hassan Mufti, Saudi author, Okaz, June 3, 2021.
“There is no dispute among experts and political analysts that Iran is a direct cause of the complete destruction of at least four Arab countries”: Syria, Iraq, Lebanon and Yemen. — Mohammed Hassan Mufti, Okaz, June 3, 2021.
“America’s entry into the Iranian nuclear agreement will…. enable the mullahs to obtain nuclear weapons and more than a billion dollars. Some of the money will go to Iran’s agents in the region.” — Bader bin Saud, Saudi columnist, Okaz, May 24, 2021.
“Does Iran want to liberate Jerusalem and give it to the Palestinians, or does it want to add it to the group of Arab capitals it occupies, such as Damascus, Baghdad, Beirut and Sana’a?” — Faisal Al-Qassem, prominent Syrian writer and journalist, Al-Quds Al-Arabi, May 14, 2021.
Qassem also pointed out that some commentators have come to prefer keeping Jerusalem under Israeli control over its liberation by Iran: “Look at the capitals occupied by Iran: Baghdad has become, according to the United Nations, the dirtiest capital in the world, while Beirut has become the largest dumpster in the Middle East. As for Damascus, it turned into a ruin, while Sana’a returned to the Middle Ages.” — Faisal Al-Qassem, quoting an Arab in Al-Quds Al-Arabi, May 14, 2021.
“Jerusalem is not in the mind of the regime. Rather, what concerns Iran is killing Arabs and occupying their countries.” — Dr. Bahera Al-Sheikhli, Iraqi author, Al-Arab, May 21, 2021.
“The truth is that Iran established the Quds Force to occupy Arab countries, recruit Arab traitors into terrorist organizations to overthrow Arab governments, and threaten Arab national security.” — Abdel Munim Ibrahim, Emirati political analyst, Akhbar Al-Khaleej, May 12, 2021.
The Arabs, however, are sending a very different message to the Biden administration and other Western powers: Appeasing Iran by reviving the nuclear deal, lifting sanctions or giving it money will only assist the Iranian regime in perpetrating more crimes and increasing instability and terrorism in the region.
Iran is continuing to exploit the Palestinian issue to promote its expansionist schemes in the Middle East and meddle in the internal affairs of Arab countries, including Syria, Lebanon, Iraq, Yemen and Bahrain.
Iran is doing so while its representatives continue to conduct indirect negotiations with the US administration in Vienna on reviving the 2015 “Iran nuclear deal,” which Iran never signed.
Diplomats from Britain, France and Germany who are negotiating with the Iranians seem oblivious to the growing concern in the Arab world over Tehran’s support for terrorism and its ongoing intervention in the internal affairs of several Arab countries.
The accusation that Iran is using the Palestinian issue to advance its schemes in the region was made by many Arabs in the aftermath of the recent war between Israel and Hamas, which ended with an Egyptian-brokered ceasefire on May 21.
During and after the 11-day war, Iran went out of its way to make known that without Tehran’s financial and military support, Hamas and other Palestinian terrorist groups in the Gaza Strip would not have been able to fire thousands of rockets at Israel.
Many Arabs, however, are scoffing at Iran’s claims and accusing it of taking advantage of the last round of fighting between Hamas and Israel to present itself as the defender of the Palestinian cause, Jerusalem and the Al-Aqsa Mosque. The Arabs clearly see what the Biden administration, Britain, Germany and France are refusing to see — that Iran has ambitions not only to acquire a nuclear bomb, but also aggressively to export its “Islamic revolution” and terrorism on a global scale.
The Arabs have pointed out that Iran’s Quds Force, a branch of the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC), has done nothing to defend Jerusalem and the Palestinians since its establishment in 1982. It is also important to note that one of the missions of Quds Force is to “liberate Jerusalem and Palestine,” a euphemism for the elimination of Israel.
“The notorious Quds Force has committed crimes against Arabs and has been busy creating militias consisting of Arab traitors in Iraq, Syria, Lebanon and Yemen, noted Saudi writer Abdullah Al-Anzi. “Iran uses the Palestinian issue to pass its expansionist agenda and extend its ideological and political influence to the Arab countries. Iran wants to show that it is the defender of the Palestinians.”
A Lebanese activist, who did not reveal his name, recently posted a video on social media in which he mocked Iran’s Quds Force for its ostensible plan to “liberate Jerusalem and Palestine.” In the video, which has gone viral on various social media platforms, he asked:
"Iran has a force called Quds Force. Isn't it the duty of this force to come to Jerusalem to help the Palestinians? Or is its duty just to go to Lebanon, Syria, Iraq, Yemen and Bahrain? This force has gone to many Arab countries, but never to Jerusalem."The words of the Lebanese activist struck a chord with many Arabs who have long accused Iran of working to destabilize their countries with the help of its terrorist proxies, especially Hamas, Palestinian Islamic Jihad, Hezbollah and the Houthis.
Referring to the Iranian-backed Houthi militia in Yemen, which has been attacking Saudi Arabia with missiles and drones for the past few years, Saudi writer Walid Al-Ghamidi commented:
"The Quds Force is in Yemen to launch attacks on Mecca and Medina and their surroundings [in Saudi Arabia]. The goal of the mullahs in Tehran is to attack Muslims and inflict the greatest possible harm on them."Saudi author Mohammed Hassan Mufti said that he was “completely baffled” by the “strange” statement of Iranian Foreign Minister Javad Zarif expressing Iran’s intention not to abandon its duty toward Jerusalem and the Al-Aqsa Mosque.
“The truth is that such a statement may delude some people into thinking that Iran has never, and will never, actually abandon its support for the Palestinian cause, and that it has never failed to seek to liberate the Al-Aqsa Mosque,” Mufti remarked.
"Isn't Iran the country that supports the Houthi militia with money and weapons to attack Saudi Arabia? The Houthi's missiles and drones nearly hit the holy sites in Mecca and Medina. How can Iran invest in the bombing of Saudi Arabia while claiming with the utmost enthusiasm that it seeks to liberate Jerusalem and the Al-Aqsa Mosque? Iran's claim to support Islamic holy sites is not related to any religious beliefs. It is related to regional ambitions, expansionist dreams, and striving to export the Iranian revolution to various countries in the region."According to Mufti, the extent of Iran’s manipulation of the minds of young Iranians was exposed during the Iran-Iraq war. Iranian soldiers who were captured by the Iraqi army told their interrogators that the mullahs in Tehran had convinced them that “the road to Jerusalem passes through Iraq,” the Saudi writer revealed. “There is no dispute among experts and political analysts that Iran is a direct cause of the complete destruction of at least four Arab countries.”
Saudi columnist Bader bin Saud warned that the Biden administration’s insistence on negotiating with the Iranians about reviving the Iran nuclear deal at a time when the mullahs in Tehran are boasting of their financial and military support for Hamas and Palestinian Islamic Jihad will intensify tensions in the Middle East.
“The Biden administration still insists on continuing the nuclear negotiations with Iran,” bin Saud wrote.
"America's entry into the Iranian nuclear agreement will exacerbate matters and will enable the mullahs to obtain nuclear weapons and more than a billion dollars. Some of the money will go to Iran's agents in the region. The Iranian regime considers the Middle East an extension of its strategic depth and neo-colonialism, and calls for the universality of the Palestinian cause to justify its direct intervention in Palestinian affairs."Dr. Dalal Mahmoud, a professor in the Faculty of Economics and Political Science at Cairo University, stated explicitly that Iran and the Muslim Brotherhood have done nothing for the Palestinian issue over the past years.
Iran and the Muslim Brotherhood, she told the Emirati newspaper Al-Ain, referring to the dispute between the Palestinian Authority in the West Bank and Hamas in the Gaza Strip, have actually “contributed to increasing the complexity of the Palestinian issue, conspired against it and exploited it for their political calculations, and increased divisions among the Palestinian people.”
Former Egyptian diplomat Mohamed Al-Orabi said that the relationship between Iran and the Muslim Brotherhood is “governed by opportunism and an interest in achieving the common goal of being present in the region, extending influence and destabilizing the security and stability of the region and the Gulf.”
Prominent Syrian writer and journalist Faisal Al-Qassem said that many Arabs were ridiculing Iran’s rhetoric about supporting the Palestinians and “liberating Jerusalem and Palestine.”
"The strange thing is that Iran often asks the Palestinians to specify their role in the resistance in return for Iranian support... The Palestinians are required to mention Iran's name in their statements. Generally speaking, Iran has not and will not succeed in the public relations game to polish its image and benefit from the Palestinian uprising because most of the Arab street is making fun of it."Qassem noted that polls on Twitter have shown that more than 85% of voters do not trust the Iranian position on the Palestinian issue. “How can those who have killed and displaced millions of Syrians, Iraqis, Lebanese and Yemenis help the Palestinians,” he quoted some Arabs as saying.
"Does Iran want to liberate Jerusalem and give it to the Palestinians, or does it want to add it to the group of Arab capitals it occupies, such as Damascus, Baghdad, Beirut and Sana'a? When Iran claims that it supports the Palestinians in their fight against Israel, does it do that to help them liberate Jerusalem and annex it to the other four Arab capitals occupied by Iran?"Qassem also pointed out that some commentators have come to prefer keeping Jerusalem under Israeli control over its liberation by Iran. He quoted one Arab as saying:
"Look at the capitals occupied by Iran: Baghdad has become, according to the United Nations, the dirtiest capital in the world, while Beirut has become the largest dumpster in the Middle East. As for Damascus, it turned into a ruin, while Sana'a returned to the Middle Ages."Iraqi writer Dr. Bahera Al-Sheikhli also mocked Iran’s claim that it is doing its utmost to help the Palestinians:
"During the past 30 years, the Al-Quds Force fought the Arabs everywhere and did not fire a single bullet to liberate Jerusalem or Palestine. Jerusalem and Palestine are the Trojan horse of the Iranian regime. Jerusalem is not in the mind of the regime. Rather, what concerns Iran is killing Arabs and occupying their countries. The only thing Iran did for the Palestinians was that it divided them into two entities – one led by the Palestinian Authority and another led by Hamas and Palestinian Islamic Jihad. Iran seeks to expand at the expense of the Arabs and their countries, and does not care about Jerusalem."Emirati political analyst Abdel Munim Ibrahim said he also shared the view that Iran and its Quds Force have done nothing to “defend” the Palestinians. Instead, he pointed out, the Quds Force has “committed crimes against Arabs in their countries.”
"The Iranian Quds Force is nothing more than a political cover that uses the Palestinian cause to play conspiratorial roles against Arabs... It is not concerned about what is happening in Jerusalem and Palestine. It is very interested in supporting its agents and armed militias in Iraq and Syria and smuggling missiles, drones, explosives and mines to the Houthi militias in Yemen. Only the delusional people in Palestine, the Gulf and the Arab countries were betting on the Quds Force to liberate Jerusalem and defend the Palestinians. The truth is that Iran established the Quds Force to occupy Arab countries, recruit Arab traitors into terrorist organizations to overthrow Arab governments, and threaten Arab national security."The Arabs who are mocking Iran and exposing its malign behavior are mainly addressing those in the West who, against all reason, continue to believe that appeasing the mullahs of Iran is the path to security and stability.
The Arabs are also sending a message to the Biden administration and other Western powers that Iran’s continued interference in the internal affairs of Arab countries – both directly and through its proxies – poses a risk to regional security and stability.
The Arabs, in other words, are telling the Americans and other Westerners that appeasing Iran by reviving the nuclear deal, lifting sanctions or giving it money will only assist its regime in perpetrating more crimes and increasing instability and terrorism in the region. This is the poisonous fruit of placating the mullahs.
À la veille d’un rassemblement de soutien à Paris et Bamako, sa compagne se confie à TF1 sur le profil de celui qui aspire à “donner la parole à ceux qu’on n’entend pas”.
Deux mois maintenant qu’Olivier Dubois a disparu au Mali, début avril. Il était ensuite réapparu le 5 mai dans une vidéo diffusée sur les réseaux sociaux dans laquelle il expliquait avoir été enlevé. Une version confirmée par le ministre des Affaires étrangères le 23 mai, Jean-Yves Le Drian déclarant alors que “tout nous laisse à penser” que le journaliste “est otage d’un groupe djihadiste”.