Both federal and resistance forces are digging in for a lengthy battle in Ethiopia’s Tigray region. Conditions for civilians are dire, with famine a growing danger. Outside powers should urge Addis Ababa to let more aid into the war zone, while maintaining pressure for talks.
What’s new? War rages on in Ethiopia’s Tigray region – with civilians bearing the brunt of a brutal conflict marked by atrocities. Under international pressure, Addis Ababa has offered concessions on aid access and pledged that Eritrean troops will withdraw. But prospects of a negotiated settlement appear dim.
Ten days after armed groups carried out a deadly attack on three villages near the western Niger town of Tillia, UN humanitarians have repeated their call for greater protection of civilians and all those displaced by violence in the Sahel.
The UN refugee agency UNHCR reported on Thursday that six refugees from nearby Mali were among the 137 people who were killed on 21 March by assailants on motorbikes.
Russia’s espionage agencies are redoubling efforts to penetrate NATO, Western intelligence officials say, and are focusing on recruiting moles in the defense ministries of the pact’s member states.
Italy expelled two Russian diplomats this week after they were caught in a parking lot in Rome handing cash to an Italian naval captain in exchange for sensitive military documents, which included NATO files.
For the better part of six years since Russia and Ukraine signed the Minsk II cease-fire accord for the disputed eastern Ukrainian region of Donbass, one question has loomed: How will the U.S. and NATO respond if Russian troops again cross back over the so-called Line of Contact, dividing Ukrainian forces from Russian-backed separatists? With reports now trickling in of a buildup of Russian military forces along the border and in Crimea, Washington and Brussels may need quick answers soon.
Both federal and resistance forces are digging in for a lengthy battle in Ethiopia’s Tigray region. Conditions for civilians are dire, with famine a growing danger. Outside powers should urge Addis Ababa to let more aid into the war zone, while maintaining pressure for talks.
What’s new? War rages on in Ethiopia’s Tigray region – with civilians bearing the brunt of a brutal conflict marked by atrocities. Under international pressure, Addis Ababa has offered concessions on aid access and pledged that Eritrean troops will withdraw. But prospects of a negotiated settlement appear dim.
Hours after French hydrocarbon giant Total announced it would resume full operations at its Afungi Peninsula natural gas facility, Islamist insurgents launched a major assault on the nearby port town of Palma, killing dozens and triggering a mass exodus. The Islamic State claimed the attack. The gas project itself does not seem to have been a target, but the incident has shaken confidence in the government’s ability to protect foreign investment sites, not to mention civilian lives. For the first time since the insurgency began in 2017, militants killed expatriate workers. Crisis Group expert Dino Mahtani says a purely military response to the insurgency will not address the social grievances that sparked it.
For the past 18 months, Lebanon has been reeling from a wrenching economic crisis. This essay deciphers the crisis’s origin, describes the current juncture, and reflects on the likely outcomes in the proximate future.
How did we get here?
With hindsight, Lebanon’s economic crisis was predictable. By the time the crisis erupted in October 2019, the economy was facing four extraordinary challenges. First, public sector debt had reached such elevated levels that a default had become a question of when, not if. Second, the banking sector, having lent three-quarters of deposits to the government, had become functionally bankrupt and increasingly illiquid. Third, the productive economy had experienced virtually no growth for an entire decade — a development with acute socio-political implications. Finally, and perhaps most importantly, the country was politically rudderless: there was no president between 2014 and 2016, there were multiple and lengthy delays in cabinet formation, and the 2018 parliamentary elections took place but only after a five-year delay. The Hariri government that was in place when the crisis hit in 2019 became impotent to such an extent that it lacked power to deliver on any of the reforms required as a condition for foreign support.
The Islamic State (ISIS) Central Africa Province (ISCAP) is one of ISIS’s African affiliates that the global organization and its new leadership use to demonstrate it continues to be relevant and active.
Since its April 2019 inception, ISCAP has mirrored a strategy adopted by ISIS’s most dangerous African branches: the Islamic State West Africa Province (ISWAP) in Mali, Nigeria, Niger, Chad, Cameroon, and Burkina Faso; the Islamic State Sinai Province in Egypt; and the Islamic State Libya Province. This strategy focuses mainly on targeting local Christian communities to swiftly expand in Africa. ISCAP’s escalating campaign against Christians is a clear indication that under the global ISIS organization’s new leader Abu Ibrahim Al-Hashimi Al-Qurashi, there is no change in the group’s strategic direction regarding slaughtering Christians; rather it is likely that he has prioritized the targeting of Christians as a crucial manhaj (“methodology”) for expansion in the African continent.
“The Biden administration appears to be using loopholes when dealing with the Iranian regime. I am again asking direct, yes or no questions on the United States’ involvement in facilitating a South Korean ransom payment to Iran. If the Biden administration is involved in transferring funds to Iran, Congress and the American people must be informed. Biden administration officials continue to deflect and refuse to answer questions from members of Congress regarding this issue.” — Congressman Bryan Steil (R-WI), letter to US Secretary of State Antony Blinken, March 25, 2021.
ISCAP’s attack on Mozambican citizens and foreign workers in Palma is reminiscent of the AQIM terrorist attack in In Amenas, Algeria in 2013.
Preparations to rescue workers from the Afungi site in Mozambique and protect civilians were inadequate or, at least, implemented ineffectively.
Washington and Paris have been monitoring Mozambique closely, and the recent attack increases the possibility of deeper external intervention.
ISIS’s official claim of ISCAP’s attack could indicate the two groups have reconnected after a period in which ISIS had not been claiming the group’s attacks.
Last week, on March 24, the Islamic State in Central Africa Province (ISCAP) in Mozambique, known locally as al-Shabaab (but not affiliated to the Somalia-based al-Shabaab), carried out a major attack in Palma, located in northern Mozambique’s Cabo Delgado province. Although details are still emerging, it appears approximately 120 foreigners, among other Mozambicans, were ferried from the Palma shorelines by rescue boats to avoid being killed. There were, however, dozens of people killed by ISCAP in the attack, including both Mozambicans and foreigners. Through the Islamic State’s central media apparatus, ISCAP claimed that it killed 55 Mozambican and “Christian” forces. Islamic State also released a photo of several dozen ISCAP fighters, but it is unclear when the photo was taken and whether it preceded the Palma attack. Although ISCAP had been conducting attacks over the past several weeks and months, Islamic State had not previously claimed any ISCAP attacks so far this year. Thus, this claim at the very least validates that Islamic State still considers ISCAP as a “province.”
