Author: M Barbu

How Israel kept the Arab Spring from becoming the winter of its discontent

Under Netanyahu’s leadership, the Jewish state survived the difficult early years to come out on top as Iran and jihadists are on the defensive

Ten years ago, in late 2010 and early 2011, the Arab world experienced a series of convulsions that tore apart the Middle East as we knew it. Starting in Tunisia, where a young fruit vendor named Mohamed Bouazizi set himself on fire to protest corruption and police abuse, angry demonstrations spread throughout the region. Some of the world’s longest-ruling leaders were toppled within months. There was a sense of optimism, that the long-suffering citizens of Arab nations were finally rising up to demand basic human rights and dignity in secular, youth-led popular uprisings.

As the US plans its Afghan troop withdrawal, what was it all for?

A woman embracing her husband after his return from a deployment to Afghanistan in 2014. David Goldman/AP.More than 2,400 American service members were killed in Afghanistan and more than 20,000 were wounded.

What exactly am I supposed to tell these mothers that their sons died for? What was it all for? It remains unclear if the more than 2,400 US troop and personnel deaths, US$2 trillion and 20 years achieved anything truly lasting on the ground in Afghanistan.

The Hawks Who Want War With Iran Are Working Overtime

Just as talks between the United States and Iran were taking place last week in Vienna, a cyberattack was carried out on Iran’s Natanz nuclear facility. Reports are that the Mossad, Israel’s intelligence agency, was behind the attack that blacked out the facility just one day after Tehran launched new advanced uranium enrichment centrifuges, and as US Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin was in Israel speaking about the United States’ “enduring and ironclad” commitment to the Jewish state.

Exiting Afghanistan: Biden Sets the Date

It had to be symbolic, and was represented as such. Forces of the United States will be leaving Afghanistan on September 11 after two decades of violent occupation, though for a good deal of this stretch, US forces were, at best, failed democracy builders, at worst, violent tenants.

In his April 14 speech, President Joe Biden made the point that should have long been evident: that Washington could not “continue the cycle of extending or expanding our military presence in Afghanistan hoping to create the ideal conditions for our withdrawal, expecting a different result.” As if to concede to the broader failure of the exercise, “the terror threat” had flourished, being now present “in many places”. To keep “thousands of troops grounded and concentrated in just one country at a cost of billions each year makes little sense to me and to our leaders.”

Killing Yemen

The Yemeni city of Marib is in the thick of fighting between Houthi rebels and loyalists of Abdrabbuh Mansur Hadi’s government. Marib is the capital of Marib Governorate, lying roughly 100 miles northeast of the country’s capital in Sana’a. It was established after the 1984 discovery of oil deposits in the region and contains much of Yemen’s oil, gas, and electric resources. Marib is the last governorate under the control of the Hadi government, but it has been under increasing attack by the Houthis since early 2020. If seized by the Houthis, the resistance group can use that advantage in negotiations and even continue further south.

Conflict Trends Update

GREECE-TURKE

In the first visit by a Greek minister in over two years, Foreign Minister Nikos Dendias arrived in Ankara this week for talks with his Turkish counterpart Mevlut Cavusoglu. They discussed contentious issues dividing the NATO allies, including Cyprus and their maritime dispute. Crisis Group expert Berkay Mandıracı says while Dendias invited Cavusoglu for a follow-on meeting in Athens and the pair discussed possible talks on confidence building measures, a heated press conference descended into a war of words. The episode increases the risk of talks derailing, strengthens hardliners on both sides who oppose talks, and sours the mood ahead of difficult Cyprus talks later this month.

SOMALIA

The lower house of parliament on Monday extended by up to two years President Farmajo’s four-year term, which expired in February, triggering one of Somalia’s worst political crises in years. International partners, including the UN, U.S. and EU, condemned the extension. Crisis Group expert Murithi Mutiga says the decision will deepen political polarisation and could have serious repercussions on the security front, amid signs of splintering among the security forces. Al-Shabaab’s long-running insurgency stands to benefit the most, particularly if Somali elites cannot quickly find a way to defuse tensions.

Iran nuclear chief says 60% enrichment has started at Natanz site

Iran has begun 60% uranium enrichment at its Natanz plant, the country’s nuclear chief said on Friday, days after an explosion at the site that Tehran blamed on Israel.

“We are producing about nine grams of 60% enriched uranium an hour,” Ali Akbar Salehi, head of the Atomic Energy Organization of Iran, told state television.

“But we have to work on arrangements… to drop it to 5 grams per hour. But then we will simultaneously produce 20% (uranium),” Salehi said.

How the U.S. Withdrawal Decision Will Affect the Afghan Conflict

Washington’s decision to withdraw troops from Afghanistan by 11 September spells an end to the U.S. military deployment but not peace. Crisis Group expert Andrew Watkins anticipates that negotiations will likely stall and Afghans will fear an intensified civil war as the U.S. role evolves.

What’s new in the Biden announcement that the U.S. will withdraw all troops by 11 September? Why was the announcement made now?

Afghanistan’s Next Chapter: What Happens as U.S. Troops Leave?

President Biden has announced that the United States will withdraw all remaining military forces from Afghanistan before September 11, 2021 — likely marking a definitive end to America’s longest war just months before its two-decade anniversary. The decision fundamentally changes the dynamics of the Afghan peace process, as the Taliban have defined their insurgency by opposition to perceived occupation by foreign troops. With those troops leaving, will the Taliban negotiate with fellow Afghans or seek an outright military victory? And will U.S. troop withdrawal push Afghans to unify around preserving the current democratic constitution, or to seek deals that give the Taliban more power in a political settlement to the conflict?

Car bomb kills four in Baghdad

No group has claimed responsibility for the attack, which police say also destroyed five cars and wounded 17 people.

At least four people are dead and another 17 injured from a car bomb in Baghdad’s Sadr City on Thursday, Iraqi police said.

Citing police sources, Reuters reports the car was parked at a bustling used equipment market in a mostly Shiite neighborhood. The blast destroyed five cars and witnesses described ambulances rushing to the scene.