Russia’s Naval Base in Sudan Opens a Long-Sought Gateway to the Red Sea

Following Russian Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin’s approval last month of a new naval base to be built on Sudan’s Red Sea coast, official Kremlin statements have billed the facility as a logistics center that will be defensive in nature—for principal use as a resupply station for Russian warships. In spite of these assurances, Russian media outlets have touted the base as Moscow’s gateway to the Red Sea and Indian Ocean, widening the reach of its naval forces. The basing agreement’s terms, which were released on Dec. 8, appear to support this latter view: In exchange for military aid, Sudan will allow Russia to maintain its facility in Port Sudan for at least 25 years, allowing it to bolster its influence in key maritime theaters.

Turkey’s Challenge to the Regional Status Quo Begins in the Eastern Mediterranean

On July 24, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan joined thousands of worshippers in the streets around the historic Hagia Sophia in Istanbul for a doubly symbolic moment. Surrounded by a swarm of politicians, soldiers, security forces and imams, the Turkish leader made his way into the giant, former Byzantine cathedral through doors once hammered open by conquering Ottoman soldiers in 1453. Inside, he read out the namaz, or Muslim prayer, formally turning the 1,500-year-old building back into a mosque.

In doing so, Erdogan was turning the page on nine decades of recent history, during which this extraordinary structure and UNESCO World Heritage Site had been a globally recognized symbol of secular Turkey. Indeed, since 1934, Hagia Sophia had been neither a cathedral nor a mosque, but a secular museum, established as such by the very founder of modern Turkey, Mustafa Kemal Ataturk. Yet Erdogan was not only challenging Ataturk’s vision of a secular state that day. By choosing July 24 to hold the reopening ceremony, Erdogan was also challenging the entire foundation of modern Turkey’s international status.

Ukraine: Russia may store nuclear weapons in Crimea

Ukraine’s defense minister said on Wednesday that Russia is potentially preparing Crimea for storing nuclear weapons.

Ukraine’s defense minister said on Wednesday that Russia is potentially preparing Crimea for storing nuclear weapons and warned that Moscow could attack Ukraine to ensure water supplies for the annexed peninsula.

Quiet on the Line of Control: Progress in India-Pakistan Relations?

In February, India and Pakistan announced the resumption of a 2003 cease-fire along their fiercely disputed border — representing a first step toward easing tensions between the nuclear rivals. Soon after, leaders in both countries made forward-looking statements, sparking optimism for rapprochement. While bilateral progress has proven short-lived in the past, and longstanding political and security obstacles remain, could these developments open space to address the underlying drivers of conflict?

Natanz: Iran tried playing the West but got outmaneuvered by Israel

There are indications that the disruptions in Natanz were the result of a cyberattack, and, as always, all eyes are on Israel when these things happen.

There’s a negotiating strategy used in the Knesset during budget debates called “the goat,” which the Iranian regime seems to be very familiar with – though they probably have another name for it.

Iran’s Zarif blames Israel for Natanz attack, vows revenge

The foreign minister’s comments on Monday morning appear to be building to a crescendo that could indicate Iran intends to retaliate.

Iranian Foreign Minister Javad Zarif on Monday blamed Israel for Sunday’s incident at the Natanz nuclear facility.
An increasing number of Iranian officials have described the incident as sabotage or terrorism.

Israeli explosion sets back Natanz enrichment facility by 9 months – NYT

While Israeli media initially reported the incident was caused by a cyberattack, more recent reports say an explosive device was used.

Explosives were used to completely destroy the internal power system at Iran’s Natanz uranium enrichment facility in an alleged Israel operation, two intelligence officials told The New York Times on Sunday night.

The explosion caused severe damage to the site and it could take at least nine months to restore production at Natanz, according to the officials.

While Israeli media initially reported that the alleged attack was a cyberattack, Channel 13 reported later on Sunday that the attack was caused by an explosive device placed at the site.

Former Mossad chief Danny Yatom expressed concerns about the leak about Israeli involvement to the Times, warning that it could impact Israel’s operational capability, in an interview with Army Radio on Monday.

“If indeed this thing is the result of an operation involving Israel, this leak is very serious,” said Yatom. “It is detrimental to the Israeli interest and the fight against Iranian attempts to acquire nuclear weapons. There are actions that must remain in the dark.”

“Once Israeli officials are quoted, it forces the Iranians to take revenge,” warned Yatom. “If the Iranians start investigating with the publication hovering over their heads that the people behind the attack are the Israelis or the Americans, they will leave no stone unturned. This has an impact on our operational capability.”

The attack was initially reported by Atomic Energy Organization of Iran spokesman Behrouz Kamalvandi as an “accident” in the nuclear facility’s electricity distribution network, but the country’s nuclear chief, Ali Akbar Salehi, later confirmed that the incident was an attack.

While Kamalvandi stated at the time that no injuries or pollution were reported in the incident, the spokesman himself later injured his ankle and head while visiting the site after the incident, according to Iranian media.

An informed official in the Iranian Intelligence Ministry told the IRGC-affiliated Tasnim News Agency on Monday that the identity of the disruption’s cause had been found and that “necessary measures are being taken to arrest the main cause of the disruption in the electricity system of Natanz complex.”

ALTHOUGH MOST Iranian officials refrained from blaming a specific group or country for the attack, Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif and MP Ali Haddad placed the blame for the incident on Israel.

Zarif warned that Iran would take revenge against Israel itself for the alleged attack, at a meeting of the Iranian parliament’s Commission of National Security and Foreign Policy on Monday, according to Iranian IRNA News.

“The political and military officials of the Zionist regime had explicitly stated that they would not allow progress in lifting the oppressive sanctions and now they think that they will achieve their goal – but the Zionists will get their answer in further nuclear progress,” said Zarif.

“Natanz will be stronger than ever with more advanced machines, and if they think our hand in negotiation is weak, this act will strengthen our position in the negotiations.”

“According to the Zionists, they want to take revenge on the Iranian people for their success in lifting the oppressive sanctions, but we will not allow it and we will take revenge for these actions from the Zionists themselves,” said Zarif, stressing the need for proper protection of facilities and nuclear scientists and the “need for attention… in order not to fall into the cunning trap designed by the Zionist regime.

“Yesterday the assassination of a nuclear scientist and today the attack on the Iranian ship Saviz and the sabotage of the Natanz nuclear facility,” he tweeted.

Haddad called for deterrence and not restraint. “When commitment is translated as restraint, the Zionist enemy dares to strike more blows,” he said.

Saeed Khatibzadeh, a spokesman for the Iranian Foreign Ministry, stated on Monday that the affected centrifuges were only old, first-generation ones that would be replaced with advanced equipment, according to Iranian media.

“All the centrifuges that were shut down were of the IR-1 type, which will be replaced with advanced machines, and Iran will not fall into their cunning trap,” said the spokesman. “Of course, with this action, Israel tried to take revenge on the Iranian people for their patience and wise behavior. Iran’s behavior will be revenge against Israel, which will be done in its own time.”

“The regime has been carrying out some actions and some news leaks in the last few months. Its goals are clear and not hidden from the elites and intellectuals of Iran,” added Khatibzadeh.

“The foreign ministry has a responsibility to negotiate and Iran will respond to Israel through its channels. I am glad that there was no human or environmental damage, but it could have been a human catastrophe, so it is a crime against humanity, which is not far from the arrogant nature of Israel.”

Khatibzadeh added that “the foreign minister and our delegation are following up on this issue and actions will be announced today or tomorrow. Some actions will be taken in their undisclosed way [and] may never be said.”

THIS IS the second attack on Natanz that foreign reports have blamed on Israel within the past year, with an explosion and fire at the facility in July reportedly impacting Iran’s nuclear program significantly.

Iran is still nowhere near having recovered to the point where it had been before that July 2020 explosion in terms of its capacity for assembling new advanced centrifuges, The Jerusalem Post recently reported.

The most recent attack against Natanz took place a day after Iran began injecting uranium hexafluoride gas into advanced IR-6 and IR-5 centrifuges at Natanz and was revealed as US Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin was visiting Israel.

Tensions are rising between Israel and Iran amid a number of attacks on Iranian and Israeli maritime vessels, with recent reports claiming that Israel has hit dozens of Iranian ships in recent years.

The report also comes as Iran meets with European and American officials to discuss a possible return to the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, the formal name for the nuclear agreement signed in 2015 between the Islamic Republic and world powers.

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has warned multiple times in the past week that Israel would defend itself against Iranian threats, stressing that Jerusalem would work to combat Tehran’s nuclear ambitions.

The prime minister called the security cabinet’s first meeting in two months next Sunday to discuss Iran amid increased tensions with Tehran.

Netanyahu, at an Independence Day event on Sunday with the heads of the security branches, said: “The struggle against Iran and its proxies and the Iranian armament efforts is a huge mission.”

In a possible reference to the reported Mossad operation taking the uranium enrichment machines off-line within hours of their launch, he said: “The situation that exists today will not necessarily be the situation that will exist tomorrow.”