Author: M Barbu

What’s Next for Tunisia’s Transition?

The only solution to Tunisia’s political crisis is a roadmap for getting back to inclusive politics and a renewed social contract.

Long heralded as the sole success story of the Arab uprisings, Tunisia was thrown into political tumult on July 25 when President Kais Saied dismissed the prime minister, suspended parliament and removed politicians’ immunity from criminal prosecution. The decision followed days of protest and long-term malaise, with Tunisians angered over the government’s COVID response, endemic corruption, a lagging economy and, more broadly, the inability of the post-Ben Ali political system — particularly political parties — to deliver for citizens. While many Tunisians supported Saied’s move, they and the international community await what comes next and how it will impact the North African country’s long-term political and economic trajectory.

Afghanistan-Pakistan Ties and Future Stability in Afghanistan

The situation in Afghanistan—and with it the Afghanistan-Pakistan relationship—is likely to worsen in the short term. The prospect of a prolonged civil war or full Taliban takeover now looms large as hopes of a negotiated settlement recede. Whatever the outcome, the countries’ bilateral relationship will continue to be shaped by tensions that have characterized it for more than a century. This report examines these sources of tension and identifies potential openings for engagement that could, over time, become sources of stability and growth.

Can the Taliban Be Stopped? Three Scenarios for What’s Next in Afghanistan

No matter where the conflict goes from here, Afghans will bear enormous costs as stability looks to be a distant prospect.

The Afghan government has had its most difficult week fighting the Taliban since the insurgency began. As of this writing, 12 provincial capitals have fallen since last Friday, marking the first time the Taliban have controlled a city since they were ousted in 2001. By some estimates the Taliban control two-thirds of the country. While many experts predicted that the rapid and unconditional withdrawal of U.S. troops would increase Taliban control, few saw it happening this fast. A Taliban takeover of Kabul — once thought to be years away if at all — is now conceivable within months, or even a matter of weeks.

UN Syria envoy urges end to ‘siege-like’ situation in Daraa

UN Special Envoy for Syria Geir Pedersen said Syrian civilians living under a government siege in the southwestern city are suffering from shortages of fuel, food and medicine.

The United Nations’ special envoy for Syria on Thursday expressed concern over the “alarming situation” in Daraa, the birthplace of the Syrian revolution, where thousands of civilians have been forced to flee their homes in recent weeks.

Exploiting U.S. Withdrawal From Afghanistan, Islamic State-Taliban Fight To Establish Islamic Caliphate To Intensify

Introduction

As the withdrawal of U.S. and coalition troops from Afghanistan is already in its final stages as per the February 29, 2020 agreement[1] between the United States and the Afghan Taliban, signed in the Qatari capital of Doha, the Islamic State (ISIS) has begun to carry out increasingly diverse attacks via its Afghan affiliate, the Islamic State Khurasan Province (ISKP), in an attempt to expand its influence in the country.

Tunisia’s Leap into the Unknown

On 25 July, Tunisia’s President Kaïs Saïed invoked the constitution to seize emergency powers after months of crisis. In this Q&A, Crisis Group expert Riccardo Fabiani says compromise between Saïed and his parliamentary opponents remains possible, but so does grave violence.

Turkey Recalibrates Its Hard Power

Ankara believes it has reaped strategic benefits from military involvement in Syria, Libya and Nagorno-Karabakh. Yet it has paid a price as well, discomfiting both allies and adversaries. Now, Turkey hopes to rebuild ties so as to consolidate its new gains.

Inoculations in Terror

On August 2, 2021, one Police constable, identified as Dilawar Khan, was killed when unidentified gunmen opened fire on a Police team guarding polio workers administering vaccinations near the Atal Sharif area of Kalachi Tehsil (revenue unit) in the Dera Ismail Khan District of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KP). The gunmen managed to escape.