Author: M Barbu

Terrorism experts say ‘lone wolf’ attacks more likely than organized event

As tributes pour in to remember what happened during the Jan. 6 riot at the Capitol, as well as the lives lost following it, some experts are shifting their focus forward. An unclassified report from the Office of the Director of National Intelligence (ODNI) indicates Americans should be aware of the possibility of lone wolf terror attacks. The report says that is more likely that an organized event similar to what happened Jan. 6, 2021.

Iran Sponsors Attacks and Escalates Tensions throughout the Region

Iran-backed attacks on U.S. forces and allies in early January represent Iran’s ongoing effort to avenge the killing of Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps – Qods Force commander Qasem Soleimani two years ago.

Strategically, Iran seeks to show that it can threaten the United States or its allies anywhere in the region, and at any time.

Iranian leaders calculate that the attacks will cause the United States to further reduce its military footprint in the region and will intimidate regional adversaries.

Unprecedented Unrest Erupts in Kazakhstan

The anti-government unrest gripping Kazakhstan represents the most serious threat to the country’s authoritarian leadership since its independence from the Soviet Union.

The rioting was initially sparked by an increase in fuel prices but reflected longstanding resentment of Kazakhstan’s leaders’ repressive policies and monopolization of major industries.

In the face of Russian aggression, the West needs to strengthen European security and Black Sea partnerships

For months, Ukraine has been a central focus for Western foreign policy as Russia has continued its military buildup on the border, reaching 100,000 troops. Moscow has threatened to carry out a military attack and has now issued an ultimatum for the United States to bless a Russian sphere of influence over sovereign democratic countries such as Ukraine. But as consultations between the U.S. and Russia take place throughout the week, the West should bear in mind that Ukraine is only one part of the broader Russian problem. It is about all independent former Soviet states and essentially about the entire European security architecture. The U.S. and NATO cannot go over the heads of independent states and give into Russian demands; instead, they should buy time and invest in long-term European security, while refraining from rhetoric and ultimatums.

Strong Turkey-Ukraine ties are key to Black Sea security

On Jan. 6, 2019, the eve of Orthodox Christmas, the Ecumenical Patriarchate in Istanbul awarded a decree of independence, known as a tomos, to the then-newly established Orthodox Church of Ukraine — a milestone in the country’s history. The move reversed a 1686 decision that had transferred jurisdiction over Kyivan Orthodox churches to Moscow. After 333 years, however, it’s not only the faithful who have changed their direction from Moscow toward Istanbul. Ukraine and Turkey are strengthening their strategic partnership by deepening their cultural, political, military, and economic cooperation.

Tunisia’s Kais Saied becomes an ordinary politician

Many analyses of Tunisia post July 25 have concentrated on assessing President Kais Saied’s reshaping of the political system in terms of where they place Tunisia in a binary classification system of “democracy” or “authoritarianism/dictatorship.” Some of these transitology studies are slightly more nuanced, inserting a linearity or hybridity to the assessment schema. More critical analysts have pushed back against U.S. political scientists’ focus on procedural democracy. Rather than attempting to more accurately slot Tunisia into the “democracy transition” or “regime type” framework, this paper assesses the post-July 25 political system with reference to the legacy of Tunisia’s own revolution of 2010-11.

China: Buying Up Europe

A staggering 40% out of 650 Chinese investments in Europe in the years 2010-2020, according to Datenna [a Dutch company that monitors Chinese investments in Europe], had “high or moderate involvement by state-owned or state-controlled companies.”

When the Chairman of the UK parliament’s Foreign Affairs Committee, Tom Tugendhat, wrote that Chinese ownership of the British microchip plant, Newport Wafer Fab, “represents a significant economic and national security concern”, UK Business Secretary Kwasi Kwarteng responded that the deal had been “considered thoroughly”. Only after considerable pressure did British Prime Minister Boris Johnson agree to a national security review of the sale.

How Bosnia Became an Easy Target for the Far Right

Far-right European politicians such as Hungary’s Viktor Orbán have been making common cause with Serb nationalists who seek to tear Bosnia and Herzegovina apart.

In February 2018, Giorgia Meloni, a seasoned Italian right-wing politician, tweeted a photo of Hungary’s far-right prime minister Viktor Orbán attending a roundtable meeting in his cabinet with a demographic map of Bosnia and Herzegovina directly opposite him. Shortly afterwards, another photo surfaced showing Orbán holding a book by then Associate Director of the UK’s Henry Jackson Society Douglas Murray, arguing that immigration is destroying Europe. Again, clearly in the background of Orbán was the same demographic map of Bosnia and Herzegovina.

A Provocative Challenge to Analytical Doctrine

The unintended consequences of analytical doctrine may make us more vulnerable to surprises.

Two recent events, the surprise Taliban takeover of Afghanistan and the massing of Russian troops on Ukrainian borders, have brought to the surface the debate about the role of assessment and analysis in informing policy decisions. In the case of the former, we ask: how could this event not have been foreseen (i.e., why did the analysis not clearly predict it)? In the case of the latter, we are provided with varying estimates of the likelihood of President Vladimir Putin’s malign intentions and his probable timescales for action. Will he invade, or won’t he? By spring or after?

Kazakhstan: Peering Beyond Current Troubles

The riots in Kazakhstan may have abated, but the country’s problems remain unresolved, and its leaders’ challenges have never been greater. Dr Neil Melvin, RUSI’s Director of International Security Studies, identifies what these are.

Riots prompted by higher fuel prices are not exactly unusual. We have seen them in places as diverse as France with the so-called Yellow Vests, or Chile with public transport. Thus, in many respects, what has happened in Kazakhstan should not surprise us. Or should it?