China and the U.S. Exit from Afghanistan: Not a Zero-Sum Outcome

Beijing’s primary focus for now is to ensure stability on its western border and sustain its relationship with the new Taliban government in Kabul.

It has become fashionable to characterize recent events in Afghanistan as a loss for the United States and a win for China. This zero-sum interpretation framed in the narrow context of U.S.-China relations is too simplistic and off the mark. The reality is far more complex and nuanced. The end of the U.S. military presence in Afghanistan and the collapse of that country’s pro-Western government do not automatically translate into significant Chinese gains, nor do they trigger a swift Beijing swoop to fill the vacuum in Kabul left by Washington.

What Does IS-K’s Resurgence Mean for Afghanistan and Beyond?

How the Islamic State affiliate’s recent attacks complicate an already precarious counterterrorism situation in Afghanistan.

Last month’s bombing outside the Kabul airport was a devastating sign of the Islamic State of Khorasan Province’s (IS-K) recent resurgence. The group had already launched 77 attacks in the first four months of 2021 — an increase from 21 in the same period last year. This renewed capacity for mass-casualty attacks could further destabilize Afghanistan’s already precarious security situation, leaving both the new Taliban government and the United States with a vested interest in mounting an effective campaign to undercut IS-K’s presence in the region.

Mercenaires russes : le Tchad met en garde contre “toute ingérence extérieure”

Le chef de la diplomatie du Tchad, Chérif Mahamat Zene, a affirmé jeudi avoir des “raisons” de se préoccuper de la présence des mercenaires russes de la société Wagner sur le continent africain.

“Toute ingérence extérieure, d’où qu’elle vienne, pose un problème très sérieux pour la stabilité et la sécurité de mon pays”, a déclaré jeudi 23 septembre le chef de la diplomatie du Tchad, Chérif Mahamat Zene, à propos de l’implication de la société privée Wagner en Afrique.

Tunisie : le chef du Parlement alerte sur “le retour vers le pouvoir absolu d’un seul homme”

Alors que le président Kaïs Saïed est accusé par l’opposition de s’arroger des pouvoirs disproportionnés, le chef du Parlement tunisien, Rached Ghannouchi, a appelé jeudi à lutter contre “le pouvoir absolu d’un seul homme”.

Il dit craindre “un retour en arrière”. Le chef du Parlement tunisien et du parti d’inspiration islamiste Ennahda, Rached Ghannouchi, a appelé jeudi 23 septembre dans un entretien avec l’AFP, à la “lutte pacifique” contre “le pouvoir absolu d’un seul homme”, après que le président Kaïs Saïed a considérablement renforcé ses pouvoirs.

Guerre en République centrafricaine : zones interdites et ingérence russe

Au milieu d’une avancée soutenue par la Russie, la menace croissante des mines terrestres et des explosifs improvisés en République centrafricaine (RCA) indique un changement tactique dangereux dans une nouvelle guerre de guérilla en cours.

Au début du mois, un convoi traversant le nord-ouest instable de la RCA est touché par un engin explosif, tuant un travailleur humanitaire du Conseil danois pour les réfugiés.

Conflict Trends Update

AFGHANISTAN

A series of improvised explosive attacks and shootings targeted Taliban security forces and vehicles in Nangarhar, Baghlan and Kunduz provinces as well as the capital Kabul in the past week. Crisis Group expert Ibraheem Bahiss says having already claimed multiple attacks, it appears likely that the Islamic State’s Afghan affiliate (ISKP) is primarily responsible for the wave of violence. Taliban forces are stepping up their crackdown on suspected ISKP-linked individuals and have closed several Salafi madrassas. There is a real risk that the string of attacks could morph into a more widespread and potent ISKP insurgency challenging Taliban rule.

U.S., Russia Should Explore Ways To Increase Military Contacts, Top U.S. General Says

The top U.S. military officer says the United States should explore ways to expand its military contacts with Russia as a way to increase trust and avoid a miscalculation.

Army General Mark Milley, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, said allowing things such as observers at each other’s combat exercises would increase transparency and reduce the risk of conflict.

“We need to put in place policies and procedures to make sure that we increase certainty, to reduce uncertainty, increase trust to reduce distrust, increase stability to reduce instability in order to avoid miscalculation, and reduce the possibility of great power war,” Milley said. “That’s a fundamental thing that we should try to do, and I am going to try to do it.”

Milley made the comments on September 23 after meeting his Russian counterpart, General Valery Gerasimov, chief of the Russian General Staff, in Finland on September 22.

Milley said that military contacts between the two powers currently are largely limited to senior leaders such as the defense secretary, the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, and the supreme allied commander for Europe.

But he said allowing military service chiefs to form stronger relationships with their Russian counterparts and allowing observers at exercises are ideas worth exploring.

Milley, who spoke with an AP reporter and one other reporter traveling with him back to the United States, declined to detail the contents of his talks with Gerasimov, but a statement from the Joint Chiefs of Staff suggested that more open communication was discussed.

“The meeting was a continuation of talks aimed at improving military leadership communication between the two nations for the purposes of risk reduction and operational deconfliction,” the statement said.

Milley said that military-to-military contacts with Russia have worked in the past to de-escalate tense situations. Without being specific, he said there were “a couple of incidents that occurred between us and the Russians over the last two years” that triggered calls between Milley and Gerasimov.

The U.S. and Russia increased cooperation on nuclear security and other defense issues after the end of the Cold War, but the relationship deteriorated after Russia and Georgia fought a brief war in 2008 and Russian troops remained in Georgia’s regions of South Ossetia and Abkhazia. Tensions spiked again in 2014 when Russia annexed Ukraine’s Crimean Peninsula and its military intervened in eastern Ukraine.

In response to the invasion of Crimea, Congress in 2016 limited cooperation with Russia, prohibiting “military-to-military cooperation” until Russia ends its “occupation of Ukrainian territory” and “aggressive activities.” The law was later amended to say that it does not limit military talks aimed at “reducing the risk of conflict.”

INTERVIU. Un profesor afgan povestește cum „agenții români” l-au salvat. Cursă cu mașina

Fondatorul primei universităţi private din Afganistan, Zaker Hussain Ershad, a fost unul dintre cei 139 de cetăţeni afgani evacuaţi cu ajutorul autorităţilor române. Ershad e acum într-un centru de refugiaţi din Galați, România, şi spune că, în curând, speră să predea la Facultatea de Ştiinţe Politice, Universitatea din Bucureşti.