Author: M Barbu

Belarus: The Next Crimea?

Despite persistent rumours, Russia remains highly unlikely to attempt to annex Belarus.

Rumours of a Russian takeover of Belarus have been around ever since Russia and Belarus signed the Union State Treaty in 1999. After Russia’s 2014 annexation of Crimea demonstrated that it was willing to act on its – up to that point purely rhetorical – commitment to the protection of its ‘compatriots’, pundits have argued that Belarus, home to large scores of Russian speakers, may well constitute the ‘next Crimea’. The nationwide protests against Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko that broke out around the fraudulent August 2020 presidential elections gave new impetus to these rumours: commentators argued that Russia might use the instability caused by the protests as an excuse to intervene in Belarus to pacify the country or some of its regions.

Why is Bosnia on the Brink Again?

Bosnia and Herzegovina is once again making headlines. There is talk of renewed violence, with the blessing of Belgrade and Moscow. But the entire region is in a precarious situation.

Back in September 2021, tensions ran high in Montenegro following the decision to anoint Bishop Joanikije II as the new Serbian Orthodox Metropolitan of Montenegro. Since Serbia heavily backs the Serbian Orthodox Church and utilises it to expand its soft power influence throughout the Balkans, its meddling in Montenegro did much to aggravate relations between ethnic Serbs and ethnic Montenegrins, who are a majority. There were explosions, teargas being fired by law enforcement agencies and barricades blocking roads.

What Stands Between the Taliban and Recognition?

The international community is coming under increasing pressure to recognise the Taliban and to unfreeze Afghan funds held by the IMF or to risk a humanitarian crisis over the winter and a resurgence of international terrorism.

As Afghanistan heads deeper into winter the desperate need is to avoid a humanitarian crisis. The World Food Programme has launched an appeal to feed up to 23 million people and Médecins sans Frontières have followed suit in the healthcare field. Fortunately, the distribution mechanisms are in place inside Afghanistan; what is needed is for the international community to ensure that UN humanitarian programmes are fully funded. This will require Western capitals to get over the shock of their recent defeat. It goes without saying that hunger and health should not be used as instruments of political leverage.

With previous power sharing arrangements likely to be replicated in Iraq and an exodus of NGOs, the future for Iraq looks depressingly similar.

On 7 November, outgoing Iraqi prime minister Mustafa Al-Kadhimi survived an assassination attempt, casting a shadow over the country’s recent elections. While the attack remains unclaimed, pro-Iranian Popular Mobilisation Forces (PMF) groups are suspected of being involved following their party’s (the Fatah Alliance) rejection of the election results. The attack occurred only days after large demonstrations, held by Fatah supporters, turned violent last week in Baghdad. The protestors are claiming election fraud after the party lost a significant chunk of its parliamentary seats in the October 10 elections.

Belgium terrorism convict arrested in Bulgaria

A man convicted of terrorism in Belgium has been detained as he entered Bulgaria through its south-eastern border with Turkey, prosecutors announced on Thursday.

Border police and state security agents intercepted the man on Wednesday in a special operation, the prosecution said.

He is “sought in relation to a 20-year jail sentence for terrorism handed to him by a court in an EU country” and a terrorism sentence of nine years and five months in Turkey, it said.

A Risky Role for Russian Peacekeepers in Nagorno-Karabakh

When Russian peacekeepers arrived in Nagorno-Karabakh as part of a ceasefire deal between Azerbaijan and Armenian, they found it empty, blanketed in a thick November fog. After 44 days of brutal war, most [people] had fled, not believing the fighting was over. A year later, the region’s main city of Stepanakert is no longer a ghost town. Most of its residents have returned, followed by thousands of Armenians displaced from territories won over by Azerbaijani forces in the conflict. The scars of war are everywhere — damaged buildings, craters caused by missiles, and photos of the dead and missing hung for passers-by — but elders gossip on city stoops while children are playing in the streets once again. That renewed sense of security is largely thanks to the Russian presence there.

Grappling with Bosnia’s Dual Crises

What is behind the current crisis in Bosnia?

Bosnia and Herzegovina (commonly referred to as Bosnia) is facing a dual challenge that threatens to undo the agreement that ended a war between Serbs, Croats and Bosnian Muslims (Bosniaks). The war was marked by the worst atrocities on European soil since World War II, with more than 100,000 people killed and more than two million displaced. By way of talks in Dayton, Ohio, the U.S. brokered peace agreements that brought the fighting to a close and established a Bosnian state composed of two self-governing regions: the Federation of Bosnia and Herzegovina, and Republika Srpska. Republika Srpska is divided into eastern and western halves, which are joined at the centre by the Brčko autonomous region.

SOHR: 900 Syrian fighters return from Nagorno-Karabakh

More than 900 pro-Turkish Syrian fighters have returned to Syria after the end of fighting in the disputed area of Nagorno-Karabakh, a British-based Syrian war monitor said Wednesday.

A November 9 truce ended more than a month of fighting between Azerbaijan and Armenia over the ethnic Armenian enclave that broke away from Baku’s control in a war in the 1990s.

SDF separatist forces between Turkey and Russia

On the evening of Tuesday 9 November, Turkish warplanes targeted separatist elements of the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) in the Syrian city of Qamishli. The drone attack is not the first of its kind in the city, as it was preceded by similar attacks in the city and Ain Al-Arab (Kobani) before it.