Author: M Barbu

Iran’s Hollow Victory

The High Price of Regional Dominance

Few countries have maintained clearer or more consistent aspirations over the last four decades than the Islamic Republic of Iran. Since 1979, when Islamic revolutionaries transformed the country from an U.S.-allied monarchy into an ardently anti-American theocracy, Iran has sought to expel the United States from the Middle East, replace Israel with Palestine, and remake the region in its image. Unlike U.S. strategy toward Iran and the greater Middle East, which has shifted markedly with different administrations, Iranian strategy toward the United States and the Middle East has exhibited remarkable continuity. Tehran has not achieved any of its lofty ambitions, but it has made progress toward them—and it is feeling emboldened by its recent successes.

Specialized US Army unit helps Russia’s neighbors train against large-scale attacks

If tiny Latvia’s single active army brigade ever came under attack by Russian forces, its task would be keeping them on their heels while staying alive long enough for allies to send reinforcements, the brigade commander said.

“It’s not like 1945, when we were on our own,” said Col. Sandris Gaugers, referring to a time when his country was under Soviet occupation and lacked the protection that comes with its NATO member status.

What We’ve Already Learned From the Russia-Ukraine Crisis

For several months now, much of the U.S. and European foreign and security policy community’s attention has been riveted to the Russia-Ukraine border, where more than 100,000 Russian troops remain massed and equipped for a potential invasion. Most of the internal debates in the West during this time have focused on variables that are simply unknowable: What are Russian President Vladimir Putin’s intentions? What are his objectives? And will the U.S. and its NATO allies be able to deter him from starting a war that would radically alter the geopolitical landscape of Europe, but also the world?

Putin’s Big Plans for Russia’s Far East Aren’t Panning Out

In early September, Russian President Vladimir Putin appeared at the Eastern Economic Forum in Vladivostok, a port city on the Pacific coast, to issue a call to action. Russia, he said, needed a new generation of pioneers to revive the country’s eastern frontier. “The development of the Far Eastern region is of huge importance to Russia,” Putin said, urging the assembled businesspeople to invest in the region. No less than “the development of our country not [just] for decades, but for centuries to come” depended on it, he added.

Europe Still Doesn’t Have a Realistic Alternative to NATO

Europe’s inability to prevent or alleviate the chaos of the departure—or even to have some influence over the withdrawal timeline and logistics—despite European NATO members’ 20-year involvement in Afghanistan has been felt as a deep humiliation here. In an interview Tuesday, European Council President Charles Michel offered some scathing criticism of the U.S., noting that Washington’s NATO allies showed solidarity by invoking the alliance’s Article 5 mutual defense clause after 9/11, while the U.S. made “very few if any consultations with their European partners” on withdrawal from Afghanistan. But Michel was no less scathing in his criticism of Europe’s dependence on the United States. Europe’s humiliation in Afghanistan, he added, “must prompt us Europeans to look in the mirror and ask ourselves: ‘How can we have more influence in the geopolitical sphere in the future than we do today?’”

Africa’s Ties With Europe Should Be Shaped by African Agency

The sixth leaders’ summit between the African Union and European Union will finally take place this week in Brussels, following several postponements due to the coronavirus pandemic. Traditionally occurring every three years, the summit was initially scheduled for 2020.

The AU-EU summit is often touted as the ideal venue for European and African elites to discuss issues of mutual concern. But this one is particularly significant, as it provides the opportunity for both sides to unpack the new EU strategy directed toward Africa, which was launched in 2020.

Germany’s New Government Could Spell Trouble for the Visegrad Four

Germany’s new coalition government began winning glowing reviews even before it took office in early December. Its coalition agreement, released in November, satisfied many observers on a range of policy areas, both domestic and international. But one European leader wasn’t impressed.

“The gloves are off!” Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban declared as Olaf Scholz took over as Germany’s new chancellor.

Draghi and Italy Have Been Missing in Action on the Russia-Ukraine Crisis

Two stories out of Italy have attracted international attention this week: The country’s chaotic election of its president, and a controversial video conference between Russian President Vladimir Putin and Italian business leaders. Both highlighted the ways in which Italy, which could play an important role in the European Union on the standoff between the West and Russia over Ukraine, has instead remained a silent bystander.