Author: M Barbu

Around 4.3 million people have fled Ukraine since 24 February, when Russia launched its all-out invasion of the country. Most of them have crossed into countries that neighbour Ukraine – mainly Poland, but also Romania, Slovakia, and Hungary – and many are now moving further west. This is not the first time the European Union has faced a large influx of people seeking asylum. Yet the current crisis is unparalleled in both its geographical proximity to the EU and the sheer number of refugees entering the union. Therefore, it requires an unprecedented European response.

The U.S. is deploying a Patriot missile system to Slovakia, along with troops to operate it, after Slovakia sent a long-range, anti-aircraft battery to Ukraine, chief Pentagon spokesman John Kirby said Friday.

Ukrainian officials have been asking other countries to donate the S-300 anti-aircraft system, which is a Soviet Union-era equivalent to the U.S. Patriot missile system, to help beat back the Russian invasion that began Feb. 24.

Russia has tapped a new Ukraine war commander to take centralized control of the next phase of battle after its costly failures in the opening campaign and carnage for Ukrainian civilians. U.S. officials don’t see one man making a difference in Moscow’s prospects.

The Russian invasion of Ukraine shows the essential value of looking ahead to medium- and long-term strategic trends.

In foresight terms, the war in Ukraine is known as a ‘grey rhino’ – a high-probability, high-impact development that took shape over a long period but was largely ignored. Even so, the war has come as a shock, and thrown much prior consensus about international affairs to the wind as officials and observers alike point to the start of a new era. However, there is a danger that imaginative, long-term strategic thinking is forgotten in the face of such a pressing problem. But when a crisis of these proportions emerges, we must make strategy that also looks at the bigger picture.

As Russia’s military buildup near Ukraine accelerated early this year, military planners at NATO began preparing to dispatch scores of fighter jets and surveillance aircraft into the skies near Russia and Ukraine. It was a warning to Moscow not to make the mistake of targeting any member country.