Author: M Barbu

Islamic State Sahel Province is consolidating territory, reviving economies

After almost 10 years of insurgency in the Sahel, the group has made significant territorial gains in the last two years.

Since 2023, Islamic State Sahel Province (IS Sahel), a violent extremist organisation affiliated with the Islamic State, has shifted from perpetrating high levels of indiscriminate violence against civilians towards building community support in areas where it has consolidated its influence. It has also begun actively reviving local economies (including illicit activities) that had been heavily undermined by its earlier indiscriminate use of violence.

ANTISEMITISM: A HISTORY

ournalists and historians have warned about a “new antisemitism” in the twenty-first century United States comprising a repackaging of historic antisemitic tropes presented by the far right and the far left as part of a struggle between neo-fascism, anti-fascism, and anarchism. Both the far left and the far right are challenging the liberal world order established after World War II and targeting Jews as responsible for the ills during the post-war period. This has led to a worrisome trend of violent antisemitism such as the October 2018 Tree of Life synagogue shooting in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, the April 2019 attack on a Chabad house in Poway, California, the December 2019 attack on a kosher market in Jersey City, New Jersey, as well as an increase in antisemitic hate crimes.1 To understand the modern incarnation of antisemitism requires an examination of the roots and evolution of institutional antisemitism and how it led to events such as the Spanish Inquisition and the Holocaust.

ISIS Redux: The Central Syria Insurgency in September 2024

Following is the September 2024 installment of “ISIS Redux: The Central Syria Insurgency,” a monthly chronicle of attacks by the terrorist group ISIS in central Syria. All previous 2024 monthly installments can be found here, as well as a review of developments throughout 2023, 2022, and 2021. A full background and analysis of ISIS’s resurgence in Syria, including the methodology used to collect this data, can also be explored here, here, and here.

Ceaseless horrors in northern Gaza

My family is experiencing what they say is ‘the worst stage of genocide’ as Israel attempts to empty and annex northern Gaza.

Jabalia Refugee Camp in northern Gaza, where I was born and raised, has been facing relentless, indiscriminate Israeli bombing, targeting concentrations of displaced Palestinians.

Sinwar’s Death Will Not End Israeli Operations in the Gaza Strip

The death of Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar will not end the operation against Hamas in the Gaza Strip. Sinwar’s death is unlikely to trigger a rethink within Hamas about its basic strategy, which is to survive the war and secure a ceasefire that results in a total Israeli withdrawal.[i] Sinwar will be replaced by capable military commanders in the Gaza Strip and equally extreme political leaders abroad. A total Israeli withdrawal would be akin to Israel’s surrender in this war and would enable Sinwar’s capable successors to rebuild Hamas’ military organization over the next decade to threaten Israel once more.

How Iran Plans to Destroy Israel

The Israel-Hamas War is a prelude to future Iranian aggression in the Middle East. Iranian military leaders are explicitly drawing lessons from the war to develop concepts for fighting and destroying Israel. Senior Iranian officials are arguing that the war has revealed critical Israeli vulnerabilities that they can exploit. They are specifically examining ways to use proxy forces and terror to destabilize the Israeli state and Israeli society. Iran is sharpening these concepts because it is increasingly confident that its “Axis of Resistance”—the collection of Iranian-backed partners and proxies, including Hamas, across the region—is winning the current war against Israel and could fight and win a larger war too. Iran will not be able to fight a war at this scale for the foreseeable future, to be sure. But this Iranian thinking reflects Tehran’s regional aspirations and the current tenor of regime discourse. This thinking also underscores the importance of seeing the Israel-Hamas war within the context of the broader Iranian effort to dominate the Middle East. Narrowly focusing on the situation in the Gaza Strip ignores the war’s long-term implications and risks for the United States and its partners.

Benin–Niger border closure drives surge in migrant smuggling profits.

When Niger’s democratically elected President Mohamed Bazoum was overthrown in a July 2023 coup, the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) moved within days to impose punitive measures that it hoped would force a return to constitutional order. This included financial sanctions on Niger and the closure of all member states’ borders with the country.1 The bridge over the Niger River, linking the Beninese city of Malanville and the city of Gaya in Niger ­– a key transit point for migrants and both licit and illicit trade – was therefore officially closed.

Political extortion? JNIM’s blockade of Boni, Mali.

In June 2024, fighters from the Katiba Serma sub-group of Jama’at Nusrat al Islam wal Muslimin (JNIM) redoubled their efforts to cut off the town of Boni, in the Mopti region of central Mali.1 This is the latest iteration of a blockade that the jihadist group had intermittently imposed for more than nine months on the Route Nationale (RN) 16.2 Blockades are very much part of JNIM’s toolkit in its areas of influence not just in Mali, but also in neighbouring Burkina Faso.

IS Sahel: Consolidating territory and reviving economies.

Since 2023, Islamic State Sahel Province (IS Sahel), a violent extremist organization affiliated to the Islamic State, has shifted from perpetrating high levels of indiscriminate violence against civilians towards building community support in areas where it has consolidated its influence. It has also begun actively reviving local economies (including illicit activities) that had been heavily undermined by its earlier indiscriminate use of violence.