Author: M Barbu

As Western capitals seek to compartmentalize, Turkey pushes on with brinkmanship

As Western capitals try to compartmentalize problems in a bid to separately tackle Ankara’s veto threat over Finnish and Swedish NATO bids and prevent a potential Turkish military operation against their Syrian Kurdish allies, Turkey is pushing for an “all-in bargain” on several fronts. This includes demanding a free hand from Russian and US interference in Ankara’s plans in Syria, a lifting of arms embargoes against the country, and extradition of several intellectuals and activists from Sweden and Finland.

Toward a framework for transatlantic cooperation on non-state armed groups

Introduction

Non-state armed groups (NSAGs) pose a thorny policy dilemma for US and European officials trying to stabilize fragile states.1 NSAGs are far from homogenous in their motivations, tactics, and structure, resulting in highly varied roles in either perpetrating or mitigating violence, with many playing a part in both. On one side, NSAGs can create instability by using violence to advance a range of interests, from political influence and financial gain to challenging a central government’s legitimacy or territorial control. Many NSAGs are directly responsible for civilian harm, including perpetrating targeted violence, persecuting, killing and committing brutal abuses against citizens.2 There is no shortage of examples of NSAGs that fit this mold. From Boko Haram in Northeast Nigeria to Katibat Macina in Mali, armed groups have wreaked havoc on the lives of civilians as well as US and European security interests.

Three possible futures for a frozen conflict in Ukraine

Three months into Russian President Vladimir Putin’s invasion of Ukraine, the prospects for a decisive Kremlin victory have evaporated. Yet even amid Russia’s battlefield failures, the heroic Ukrainian resistance, and abundant Western military aid, the tide has not completely turned.

Eye to eye in AI: Developing artificial intelligence for national security and defense

Executive summary

Over the past several years, militaries around the world have increased interest and investment in the development of artificial intelligence (AI) to support a diverse set of defense and national security goals. However, general comprehension of what AI is, how it factors into the strategic competition between the United States and China, and how to optimize the defense-industrial base for this new era of deployed military AI is still lacking. It is now well past time to see eye to eye in AI, to establish a shared understanding of modern AI between the policy community and the technical community, and to align perspectives and priorities between the Department of Defense (DoD) and its industry partners. Accordingly, this paper addresses the following core questions.

Conflict Risk Alerts

Ukraine

Russian forces made gains in east and captured last pocket of resistance in Mariupol in south, as Ukrainian forces advanced in north; hostilities could intensify, escalate or spread in coming weeks. Russian forces 23 May began advancing on Severodonetsk and Lysychansk cities from three directions to encircle Ukrainian troops and seize last territories in Luhansk region under Ukrainian control; 31 May took control of large proportion of Severodonetsk city, although Ukrainian forces still retained some areas.

Turkey Spoils the Big NATO Party

Complacency has been the hallmark of NATO expansion. Over time, it has even become a form of derision, notably directed against Russia. As with many historical matters, records ignored can be records revisited, the second time around sometimes nastier than the first.

US, UK to deliver advanced longer-range missile systems to Ukraine

US President Joe Biden announced on Wednesday that Washington will deliver advanced longer-range missile systems HIMARS (High Mobility Artillery Rocket System) to the Ukrainian army, as part of yet another $700 million in military aid that the White House announced on May 31. This latest tranche brings the total direct military aid committed by the Biden administration since the beginning of the war three months ago to $4.6 billion.

Nigeria-Maroc : le projet de gazoduc franchit une étape décisive

Alors que la situation en Ukraine a rendu incertains les approvisionnements énergétiques du Vieux Continent, le projet de gazoduc entre le Nigeria et le Maroc obtient un soutien de poids.

La construction du futur gazoduc qui doit relier l’Afrique à l’Europe a franchi une nouvelle étape mercredi 1er juin. Le Nigeria a en effet donné le feu vert à sa compagnie pétrolière publique NNPC pour signer un protocole d’accord avec l’organisation régionale ouest-africaine Cedeao dans le cadre du projet de construction du gazoduc avec le Maroc. Une décision qui intervient alors que l’approvisionnement de l’Europe en gaz africain gagne en importance, la guerre en Ukraine laissant peser des incertitudes sur les exportations énergétiques russes. L’Algérie a déjà accepté d’augmenter son approvisionnement vers l’Italie.