Author: M Barbu

Sinwar’s Death Will Not End Israeli Operations in the Gaza Strip

The death of Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar will not end the operation against Hamas in the Gaza Strip. Sinwar’s death is unlikely to trigger a rethink within Hamas about its basic strategy, which is to survive the war and secure a ceasefire that results in a total Israeli withdrawal.[i] Sinwar will be replaced by capable military commanders in the Gaza Strip and equally extreme political leaders abroad. A total Israeli withdrawal would be akin to Israel’s surrender in this war and would enable Sinwar’s capable successors to rebuild Hamas’ military organization over the next decade to threaten Israel once more.

How Iran Plans to Destroy Israel

The Israel-Hamas War is a prelude to future Iranian aggression in the Middle East. Iranian military leaders are explicitly drawing lessons from the war to develop concepts for fighting and destroying Israel. Senior Iranian officials are arguing that the war has revealed critical Israeli vulnerabilities that they can exploit. They are specifically examining ways to use proxy forces and terror to destabilize the Israeli state and Israeli society. Iran is sharpening these concepts because it is increasingly confident that its “Axis of Resistance”—the collection of Iranian-backed partners and proxies, including Hamas, across the region—is winning the current war against Israel and could fight and win a larger war too. Iran will not be able to fight a war at this scale for the foreseeable future, to be sure. But this Iranian thinking reflects Tehran’s regional aspirations and the current tenor of regime discourse. This thinking also underscores the importance of seeing the Israel-Hamas war within the context of the broader Iranian effort to dominate the Middle East. Narrowly focusing on the situation in the Gaza Strip ignores the war’s long-term implications and risks for the United States and its partners.

Benin–Niger border closure drives surge in migrant smuggling profits.

When Niger’s democratically elected President Mohamed Bazoum was overthrown in a July 2023 coup, the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) moved within days to impose punitive measures that it hoped would force a return to constitutional order. This included financial sanctions on Niger and the closure of all member states’ borders with the country.1 The bridge over the Niger River, linking the Beninese city of Malanville and the city of Gaya in Niger ­– a key transit point for migrants and both licit and illicit trade – was therefore officially closed.

Political extortion? JNIM’s blockade of Boni, Mali.

In June 2024, fighters from the Katiba Serma sub-group of Jama’at Nusrat al Islam wal Muslimin (JNIM) redoubled their efforts to cut off the town of Boni, in the Mopti region of central Mali.1 This is the latest iteration of a blockade that the jihadist group had intermittently imposed for more than nine months on the Route Nationale (RN) 16.2 Blockades are very much part of JNIM’s toolkit in its areas of influence not just in Mali, but also in neighbouring Burkina Faso.

IS Sahel: Consolidating territory and reviving economies.

Since 2023, Islamic State Sahel Province (IS Sahel), a violent extremist organization affiliated to the Islamic State, has shifted from perpetrating high levels of indiscriminate violence against civilians towards building community support in areas where it has consolidated its influence. It has also begun actively reviving local economies (including illicit activities) that had been heavily undermined by its earlier indiscriminate use of violence.

Saladin’s Magic Lamp: Why Iran Seriously Believes That Genies Are Helping Israel in the War with Hezbollah

Israel’s recent success in eliminating Hamas and Hezbollah commanders has been attributed by influential Iranian theologian Mustafa Karami to nothing less than an army of jinn that Israel has enlisted to serve it. In the Middle East, it is still believed that jinn, who according to the Koran were created before Adam from a smokeless flame, can influence the fate of the world. Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei, for example, calls them the country’s main enemies, along with the United States and the coronavirus. And in Saudi Arabia, there is even a special anti-magic unit in the Ministry of Justice that has the authority to arrest and interrogate those suspected of witchcraft.

Prosecutor’s Business Bank. How hundreds of millions were laundered and disappeared into offshore accounts in the structures of Zheleznyak and Leontyev

In connection with the new wave of discussions about the history of the withdrawal of funds from Probusinessbank, The Insider publishes its analysis of the key episodes of what happened, based on numerous previously unpublished interviews with Zheleznyak and Leontyev, which the author of this text conducted 4 years ago. A study of the documents they provided and their own explanations allows us to conclude that the infrastructure built by Zheleznyak and Leontyev was actively used to launder hundreds of millions of “prosecutor’s” dollars, evade regulation provided by law, and transfer funds to offshore accounts, where a significant portion of the funds disappeared even before the arrival of the DIA.

Salvation Government Calls on the Fatah al-Mubin to Protect Civilians in Northern Syria

The statement reaffirmed the Salvation Government’s commitment to taking all necessary measures to defend civilians and uphold their right to live in safety and dignity in their homeland.

The Salvation Government has urged the Fatah al-Mubin operations room to take immediate and decisive measures to protect civilians and their property in northwestern Syria amid escalating Russian and Iranian attacks.

Syria Today – Israel Intercepts Two Drones from Syria; Is Syria Next in Regional War?

Syria is at the center of escalating tensions, facing both military incursions and a growing humanitarian crisis. The Israeli army intercepted two drones approaching from Syria, following a deadly Hezbollah drone attack, marking a deepening of the conflict on Israel’s northern borders with Syria and Lebanon. At the same time, thousands of Syrian refugees are returning home monthly from Turkey, with Turkey tightening its registration requirements for refugees and stopping a new migration wave from Syria. Meanwhile, inside Syria, a humanitarian funding shortfall threatens essential mental health care for millions displaced in the war-torn northwest, while UNRWA struggles to support displaced Palestinian refugees fleeing from Lebanon into Syria. Adding to this complex situation, Israel’s recent military movements in Syria’s Quneitra province have sparked concerns of further territorial annexation, raising alarm over broader regional conflict dynamics.

Erdogan Warns of Israel’s Occupation of Damascus

Erdogan claimed that Israel’s intentions to occupy Damascus after Lebanon could bring Israeli forces to Turkey’s border, Enab Baladi writes.

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has warned that Israel’s potential occupation of Damascus would drastically alter Syria’s map. Speaking to reporters on his return from Albania on Saturday, October 12, Erdogan criticized Israeli threats against Lebanon and Syria, asserting that “the occupation of Damascus will represent a serious regional threat,” as reported by the Turkish presidency’s Communications Department.