Sweden and Finland’s NATO Bids Hit a Roadblock Named Erdogan

As of last week, NATO seemed well on its way to expanding, when Finland and Sweden formally submitted their applications for membership. When they officially join, becoming the 31st and 32nd member of the alliance, it could potentially mark the fastest accession process in the alliance’s history. This is reflective of the sudden about-face in the two countries’ foreign policies in the months since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Both went quickly from countries content with a posture of non-alignment marked by occasional cooperation with NATO, to expressing increasing support for the alliance, to applying for full membership.

Pakistan Reaps What It Sowed

How the Country’s Support for the Taliban Backfired

For the last two decades, conventional wisdom in Pakistan held that an Afghanistan ruled by the Taliban would be a boon to Pakistan’s security. Islamabad has long supported the Taliban with the understanding that the militants could help deny India­—which many Pakistani officials see as an existential threat—any influence in Afghanistan. But since sweeping back to power last August, the Taliban have confirmed how misguided the conventional wisdom truly was. Pakistan has become less safe, not safer, after the Taliban’s victorious march into Kabul.

How to Prepare for the Next Ukraine

It is too soon to predict how Russia’s brutal, unjustified war against Ukraine will end. But for now, it is clear that the Russian military has shockingly underperformed in the first phase of the war, whereas the Ukrainian military has punched far above its weight. Other revisionist powers contemplating aggression will be looking closely at Russia’s failings to avoid making the same mistakes, and the countries they threaten will be looking to Ukraine’s example for insight into how to fend off a larger, better-equipped adversary.

Lebanon Gives Tehran a Double Whammy

[A]s official results came in, [Iran’s Supreme Guide Ali] Khamenei and [Major General Esmail Qaani, chief of the Quds Force who is supposed to rule the “Resistance Front” countries as a satrap]… realized that the Lebanese electorate, or at least the 49% who went to the polls, had denied Tehran the “crushing victory” it had hoped for.

The Ukraine War Threatens Asia’s Regional Architecture

In 2022, there will be great interest in Asia’s summit season because of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. The annual East Asia Summit, ASEAN and APEC meetings always attract attention due to the proximity of many world leaders, but the less glamorous work of the multilateral mechanisms goes on throughout the year in efforts to drive cooperation as well as to prepare for the jamborees at the year’s end.

Putin’s Regime Is Bad: What Comes After Could Be Worse

As Russia continues to wage its war in Ukraine, several Western leaders have openly hinted at their wish to see Russian president Vladimir Putin go. US president Joe Biden declared on 26 March that Putin “cannot remain in power”, while UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson’s spokesperson said on 1 March that the sanctions on Russia “are to bring down the Putin regime.” Yet while their ambition to see the end of Putin’s regime is understandable, there is no guarantee that what comes after will be any better.

The World After Ukraine’s Invasion

Just as the world appeared to be on its way out of the health crisis caused by the pandemic, with societies returning to normalcy, the Russian invasion of Ukraine dashed all hopes of the world getting better again (and lately, COVID-19 has been resurging as well). This war is set to have devastating worldwide consequences, adding a new layer of turmoil to what the world has been through for the last two years. The pandemic and associated problems made Russia’s invasion of Ukraine possible in the first place. Would Putin have carried out this invasion back in 2019 or 2018, when world’s leaders weren’t drowning in problems that compromised their ability to respond in a unified manner?