Author: M Barbu

Can a new EU strategy bring EU and Gulf actors closer together?

Relations between the European Union (EU) and the Gulf countries have been on life support for a long time. Ever since an early push for a free trade agreement between the EU and the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) foundered in 2008, few serious efforts have been made to revive the relationship. Instead, the two sides have become experts at talking past each other, blithely skidding from crisis to crisis. Whether it is Iran’s nuclear threat, the Houthis in Yemen, the Libyan civil war, or Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, it has often been difficult for the EU and the Gulf to find a joint perspective or a common cause.

Traffickers use refugees to smuggle drugs from Iran to Turkey

There are growing claims and indications that refugees illegally crossing the Iranian-Turkish border, the route of an exodus from Afghanistan to the West, are forced to smuggle drugs by their traffickers.

The paths of refugees and drug traffickers have crossed at the porous Iranian-Turkish border, the route of tens of thousands fleeing Afghanistan, with growing indications that refugees are being forced to carry drugs.

Turkey continues regional initiative with meetings with Israel, Egypt

Turkey’s foreign minister says he will gather with his Egyptian and Israeli counterparts, possibly with Defense Minister Hulusi Akar accompanying him to Israel.

Turkey’s Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu said that he would get together with his Egyptian and Israeli counterparts soon, in line with Turkey’s regional diplomacy efforts.

As Western capitals seek to compartmentalize, Turkey pushes on with brinkmanship

As Western capitals try to compartmentalize problems in a bid to separately tackle Ankara’s veto threat over Finnish and Swedish NATO bids and prevent a potential Turkish military operation against their Syrian Kurdish allies, Turkey is pushing for an “all-in bargain” on several fronts. This includes demanding a free hand from Russian and US interference in Ankara’s plans in Syria, a lifting of arms embargoes against the country, and extradition of several intellectuals and activists from Sweden and Finland.

Toward a framework for transatlantic cooperation on non-state armed groups

Introduction

Non-state armed groups (NSAGs) pose a thorny policy dilemma for US and European officials trying to stabilize fragile states.1 NSAGs are far from homogenous in their motivations, tactics, and structure, resulting in highly varied roles in either perpetrating or mitigating violence, with many playing a part in both. On one side, NSAGs can create instability by using violence to advance a range of interests, from political influence and financial gain to challenging a central government’s legitimacy or territorial control. Many NSAGs are directly responsible for civilian harm, including perpetrating targeted violence, persecuting, killing and committing brutal abuses against citizens.2 There is no shortage of examples of NSAGs that fit this mold. From Boko Haram in Northeast Nigeria to Katibat Macina in Mali, armed groups have wreaked havoc on the lives of civilians as well as US and European security interests.

Three possible futures for a frozen conflict in Ukraine

Three months into Russian President Vladimir Putin’s invasion of Ukraine, the prospects for a decisive Kremlin victory have evaporated. Yet even amid Russia’s battlefield failures, the heroic Ukrainian resistance, and abundant Western military aid, the tide has not completely turned.

Eye to eye in AI: Developing artificial intelligence for national security and defense

Executive summary

Over the past several years, militaries around the world have increased interest and investment in the development of artificial intelligence (AI) to support a diverse set of defense and national security goals. However, general comprehension of what AI is, how it factors into the strategic competition between the United States and China, and how to optimize the defense-industrial base for this new era of deployed military AI is still lacking. It is now well past time to see eye to eye in AI, to establish a shared understanding of modern AI between the policy community and the technical community, and to align perspectives and priorities between the Department of Defense (DoD) and its industry partners. Accordingly, this paper addresses the following core questions.

Conflict Risk Alerts

Ukraine

Russian forces made gains in east and captured last pocket of resistance in Mariupol in south, as Ukrainian forces advanced in north; hostilities could intensify, escalate or spread in coming weeks. Russian forces 23 May began advancing on Severodonetsk and Lysychansk cities from three directions to encircle Ukrainian troops and seize last territories in Luhansk region under Ukrainian control; 31 May took control of large proportion of Severodonetsk city, although Ukrainian forces still retained some areas.