Author: M Barbu

Russia’s Endgame In Ukraine Is A Moving Target

Demilitarization and “de-Nazification.” Keeping Ukraine out of NATO. Preventing “genocide” in the Donbas. And now, a land grab, seizing territory with an eye toward incorporation into Russia.

For the Kremlin, there have been various justifications and goals for its invasion of Ukraine, launched five months ago on July 24. For Ukraine, the response has been straightforward: defending its territory. For the West, however, the shifting rationales have required shifting responses, in helping Ukraine both fight the war and find some basis for negotiation.

Capitalism And Unmaking Of Democracy

Rule of law, transparency, accountability and citizenship rights are fundamental pillars of constitutional democracy. These pillars are eroding rapidly. The democratic cultures based on equality, liberty, justice, reason, science, secularism, tolerance and mutual respect for dissenting and diverse opinions are declining across the globe.

Why Russian Elites Are Standing By Putin

Since the beginning of Russia’s war in Ukraine, political analysts and commentators have been looking out for signs of a split within the Russian ruling class that could signal diminishing support for Vladimir Putin’s regime. In the days after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, some media reports recounted stories of shock and horror over Putin’s decision to attack a neighboring country. While Russian elites do not form a cohesive entity, certain attributes of the Putin regime ensure that on key political issues they appear as a unified front, despite growing tensions and discontent.

Biden’s Trip: A Total Disappointment to Allies

The Islamic Republic of Iran did not murder just one American journalist… in 1983, Iran murdered 241 American servicemen in the US Marine Corps barracks in Beirut.

To top it off, then in 2018, Iran was ordered by a US federal court to pay billions of dollars in compensation to relatives of victims in the 9/11 attacks that murdered 3,000 people on US soil.

Five Takeaways from Biden’s Visit to the Middle East

Russian, Iranian presidents aim to prevent Turkey from a new offensive in northern Syria.

The leaders of Russia, Turkey and Iran are gathering in Tehran, with Ankara’s threat of a new incursion into northern Syria likely to top the agenda. While Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has both domestic and strategic reasons for the move, Russian President Vladimir Putin and Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi want to maintain the status quo in Syria, where both their countries have expended significant resources to prop up the Assad regime. Russia’s war on Ukraine will also feature prominently at the trilateral summit. Iran has offered to provide Moscow with drones and Putin and Erdogan are reportedly set to discuss restarting Ukrainian grain exports in the Black Sea.

China’s Search for a Permanent Military Presence in the Pacific Islands

After the Solomon Islands signed a security pact with Beijing in April, Kiribati may be considering a similar deal.

In April, China signed an unprecedented security pact with the Solomon Islands, sparking regional concerns of a future Chinese military presence there. China’s pursuit of greater military reach in the Pacific Islands draws parallels to Imperial Japan’s construction of bases prior to World War II, and the implications are, likewise, strikingly similar. A Chinese military presence in the Pacific Islands could complicate transit between Australia and the United States, allow Beijing to increase its power projection in the second and third island chains, and bring Chinese military firepower closer than ever to Australian and U.S. territory. Can the United States and its partners prevent such an outcome?

Russia’s Ukraine War Has Narrowed — But Not its Goals

Putin remains fixed on erasing Ukraine. Ideas for peace talks can’t ignore that.

Russia’s Ukraine war, launched in February along the 350 miles from Belarus to the Black Sea, has largely narrowed these weeks to a 45-mile-wide assault on cities in the Donbas region. This and other signals may suggest that President Vladimir Putin is limiting his war aims and will settle for consolidation of control over four provinces in southern and eastern Ukraine. Yet this is probably just a short-term change. Putin’s goal is unchanged, and he is prepared to achieve it by degrees. This reality undermines well-meaning suggestions for peace negotiations that are based on beliefs the Kremlin will settle for what it has now.

How Putin’s Flawed Assumptions Doomed Russian Victory in Ukraine

The war in Ukraine seems to be entering a transitional phase. Early on, Russia failed in its effort to take Kyiv—so Russian President Vladimir Putin scaled back his ambitions and shifted his military’s efforts to the Donbas region in eastern Ukraine. As both sides battle it out there, exhaustion and the ability to replenish supplies, weapons, and manpower are becoming more and more critical.