The Evolution of the Islamist Terror Threat Landscape in Germany Since 2020

Abstract: Today, Germany is facing heightened security alerts due to Islamist terror threats at Christmas markets in the winter, Carnival parades in the spring, public festivals, pedestrian areas, protests, and at Israeli diplomatic missions and Jewish institutions. Over the last five years, authorities have seen younger perpetrators, new online spaces for radicalization, and new targets. Attackers are using familiar methods of attack and declaring support to well-known groups such as the Islamic State. This article provides an overview of the key developments in the Islamist terror threat in Germany between 2020 and 2025 by taking an in-depth look at all nine executed Islamist terrorist attacks and the 20 publicly reported thwarted attack plots during that time. It concludes with an analysis of the five most notable trends according to the data regarding attack vectors, terrorist profiles, propaganda and recruitment, the impact of October 7, and the role of foreign intelligence.