Author: M Barbu

Putin Returns to the Historical Pattern

For half a millennium, Russian foreign policy has been characterized by soaring ambitions that have exceeded the country’s capabilities. Beginning with the reign of Ivan the Terrible in the sixteenth century, Russia managed to expand at an average rate of 50 square miles per day for hundreds of years, eventually covering one-sixth of the earth’s landmass. By 1900, it was the world’s fourth- or fifth-largest industrial power and the largest agricultural producer in Europe. But its per capita GDP reached only 20 percent of the United Kingdom’s and 40 percent of Germany’s. Imperial Russia’s average life span at birth was just 30 years—higher than British India’s (23) but the same as Qing China’s and far below the United Kingdom’s (52), Japan’s (51), and Germany’s (49). Russian literacy in the early twentieth century remained below 33 percent—lower than that of Great Britain in the eighteenth century. These comparisons were all well known by the Russian political establishment, because its members traveled to Europe frequently and measured their country against the world’s leaders (something that is true today, as well).

Will Ukraine Bring Russia the Superpower Status It Seeks?

On Saturday, Russia invaded and effectively annexed Crimea, a Ukrainian peninsula in the Black Sea. In doing so, Russian President Vladimir Putin shrewdly took advantage of the political uncertainty that arose when Viktor Yanukovych, Ukraine’s former kleptocratic president, took flight last week and was swiftly replaced by a hastily formed provisional government in Kiev. Russia might justify its behavior by speaking of a need to protect ethnic Russians but, in reality, the move was a thinly veiled attempt to forward Putin’s real agenda: reestablishing Russia as a resurrected great power.

Contrary to Russia’s expectations, the Ukraine war and entailing crises not only did not damage EU-US relations but also improved them to the extent that France proposed “strategic autonomy” for Europe is now consigned to oblivion.

As in the Cold War, Russia sought to exploit the rift in transatlantic relations under Trump and weaken the political and economic Europe-US alliance. However, except for some limited success in Serbia and Hungary, Moscow has failed to achieve its goals.

Between the fourth quarter of 2021 and the first quarter of 2022, the number of Russians classified by the Russian government as poor rose by 8.5 million, according to Russian government statistics, Maksim Blant of Radio Liberty reports (svoboda.org/a/armiya-bednyh-kak-voyna-vliyaet-na-urovenj-zhizni-rossiyan/31895963.html).

Russia claimed control Sunday over the last Ukrainian stronghold in an eastern province that is key to achieving a major goal of Moscow’s grinding war.

The General Staff of Ukraine’s military reported that its forces had withdrawn from Lysychansk in Luhansk province. President Volodymr Zelenskyy acknowledged the withdrawal but said the fight for the city was still raging on its outskirts.

Ukraine has asked Turkey to detain a Russian-flagged cargo ship it says is carrying Ukrainian wheat. The Russian-flagged cargo ship Zhibek Zholy is carrying 4,500 metric tons of Ukrainian grain taken from the Russian-occupied port of Berdyansk, Ukraine’s foreign ministry has charged, according to Reuters. The Ukrainian prosecutor general’s office has charged that the cargo ship is carrying 7,000 metric tons of cargo and is heading to the port at Karasu, Turkey.