Author: M Barbu

Thinking About the Unthinkable in Ukraine

What Happens If Putin Goes Nuclear?

As the war in Ukraine rages on, Russian President Vladimir Putin has engaged in nuclear saber rattling. “Whoever tries to impede us, let alone create threats for our country and its people, must know that the Russian response will be immediate and lead to the consequences you have never seen in history,” Putin declared in February in the first of many statements warning of a potential nuclear strike. For the most part, Western observers have dismissed this talk as idle chest-thumping. After all, whichever side fired nuclear weapons first would be taking a very risky gamble: betting that its opponent would not retaliate in an equal or more damaging way. That is why the odds are very low that sane leaders would actually start a process of trading blows that could end in the destruction of their own countries. When it comes to nuclear weapons, however, very low odds are not good enough.

Algérie, Maroc, Sahara, gaz… La crise régionale vue d’Espagne

Depuis l’inflexion du gouvernement de Pedro Sánchez sur la question du Sahara, la classe politique espagnole se divise sur la ligne à adopter envers Rabat. Les récents événements de Melilla ont encore aggravé cette fracture.

En Espagne, la tension est toujours palpable plus d’une semaine après les incidents survenus le 24 juin à Melilla, au cours desquels plusieurs milliers de migrants subsahariens, pour la plupart d’origine soudanaise, ont tenté de forcer la clôture afin de pénétrer dans l’enclave espagnole. Des heurts durant lesquels 37 d’entre eux ont trouvé la mort.

The Taliban Will Have Trouble Reining in Afghanistan’s Opium Economy

In the aftermath of the Taliban’s takeover of Afghanistan, a great deal of attention has been given to the causes and consequences of the failed intra-Afghan peace process, the factors leading to the collapse of the Afghan military and the role played by pervasive corruption at the highest levels of the country’s internationally backed government.

China Just Raised Its Diplomatic Ambitions in Africa

Last week, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi completed a tour of Eritrea, Kenya and Comoros, continuing a tradition dating back three decades by which Chinese foreign ministers open the diplomatic year with a trip to Africa. The visit—which comes just over a month after the conclusion of the eighth Forum on China-Africa Cooperation, or FOCAC, held late last year in Dakar, Senegal—illustrates how China’s engagement with African countries is evolving. Beijing is apparently ready to play a bigger role in mediating some of the region’s conflicts. Whether those efforts will pay off is an open question for both China and its partners on the continent.

Xi Sees the Ukraine War Through the Lens of the U.S.-China Rivalry

Not long after the commencement of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, I wrote that for China, binding itself tightly to Moscow would do harm to Beijing’s long-term interests.

That is because, I wrote, an alliance between a superpower like China and a far less dynamic country like Russia, whose economy is a small fraction of the former’s size, is not much of an alliance. This would especially hold true if Beijing’s support for Russian President Vladimir Putin deepened European wariness of China and caused Europe and the United States to grow even closer, both of which now seem almost certain.

South Sudan backs military stance on civilian rule in Sudan

South Sudan President Salva Kiir has lauded the Sudanese military leadership’s decision to return the country to civilian rule.

Sudan’s military leader General Abdel Fattah al-Burhan on Monday called on political forces to agree on a civilian transitional government without them, further stressing the need to establish a national security council.