Acknowledging African Agency
(FPRI) — When it comes to US policy toward Africa, the Biden administration’s new National Security Strategy goes a step or two further than the Africa-specific strategy. It directly mentions the importance of supporting women’s rights—albeit in connection with countering terrorism.
The US Stratcom head warned that China and Russia are outcompeting America in the nuclear arena, losing deterrence.
The war in Ukraine is a prelude to greater military challenges to the US in the near future, and America is losing its competitive edge in nuclear weapons capabilities, US Strategic Command head Admiral Charles Richard warned in a speech at the Naval Submarine League’s 2022 Annual Symposium & Industry Update on Wednesday, the US Defense Department reported.
The 31st Arab League summit concluded in Algiers this week in a manner expected of a hopeless gathering strangely touted as a great reunion of the Arab world after a two-year hiatus.
There was little expectation that this year’s convention would defy the odds and become an avenue for decisive or transformative shifts, let alone much-needed bridge-building in an increasingly uncertain, discordant world.
The nationwide uprising across Iran is entering its 51st day on Saturday after the regime’s oppressive security forces committed yet another massacre this time in the city of Khash in Sistan & Baluchestan Province of southeast Iran. Despite the lethal crackdown and killing of at least twenty locals in Khash, people of this province and cities throughout the country are standing their ground firm and relentlessly pursuing their escalating protests to bring an end to the mullahs’ rule once and for all.
Technological advances have changed the way we combat terrorism in the modern world, but these developments have also allowed violent extremists and terrorists to exploit a rapidly changing landscape for their own nefarious gains.
On Thursday, the prime ministers of the six Western Balkan countries convened in Berlin to sign three important agreements—on mutual recognition of ID cards, university diplomas, and professional qualifications—as part of a revitalized “Berlin Process.” The signing is a meaningful step in rebuilding momentum for regional economic cooperation and integration, and it is a signal that European Union (EU) countries are once again focusing on the Balkans in the shadow of Russia’s ruinous invasion of Ukraine. That attention is paying dividends. And it couldn’t come at a more important time.
The German government is eerily calm as an energy crisis threatens to wreck its economy, allies loudly question its intentions, and war rages on in Ukraine. There’s a palpable sense in Berlin that when it comes to the Zeitenwende—the historic turning point in foreign policy championed by Chancellor Olaf Scholz—Germany has time. After all, according to Wolfgang Schmidt, Scholz’s chief of staff, Germany is still a “teenager” when it comes to its leadership role in Europe and beyond. The world can’t expect Germany to complete a 180-degree shift on foreign and defense policy in a matter of months. But rest assured, its officials maintain, Germany is well on its way to mending its ways—at its own pace.
Regime Collapse Is More Likely Than a Coup
Can Russian President Vladimir Putin lose the war in Ukraine and retain power? As Ukraine’s driving counteroffensive erodes Russia’s position on the battlefield, that question is getting increasing attention. Discussion has focused on the possibility of a coup, whether an armed insurrection by disgruntled Russian generals or a mutiny by Kremlin insiders. Although not impossible, neither of these is currently very likely. In fact, a different danger is more plausible: a comprehensive meltdown of the regime, as multiple challenges overwhelm its capacity to react and dysfunction drains confidence in Putin’s leadership.
Iran is trying to regain its influence in the South Caucasus. In October, it announced large-scale military exercises, dubbed “Mighty Iran”, near the border with Azerbaijan. The drills, a repeat of last year’s, should be seen as an expression of the growing discomfort within the Islamic Republic toward what it sees as the worsening geopolitical situation in the South Caucasus.
Russian President Vladimir Putin is relying on Iran to supply weapons for his war in Ukraine, which is a sign of his isolation, Pentagon Press Secretary Air Force Brig. Gen. Pat Ryder said during a news conference.
Ryder could not confirm news reports that Russia has asked Iran for ballistic missiles and other capabilities, but he did confirm that Iran has provided hundreds of unmanned aerial vehicles to Russia. And Russian forces have used them to attack Ukraine.