Author: M Barbu

War Propaganda And Ideology At The Edge Of Oblivion

Within the coming days the cruel Russia-Ukraine War will enter its second year. Russia’s brutal invasion of Ukraine in early 2022 has triggered a series of global consequences not yet fully understood.[1] Despite intense scrutiny and speculation, no one really knows how it will turn out.[2] One hopes and prays that it will not lead to a nuclear exchange but even that dire eventuality cannot be discounted. Both Russia and Ukraine are supposedly preparing new armies aimed to deliver a knockout blow, both place hope in new weapons, both are desperately looking for more men, both have freed convicts to fight and you can find videos of forced conscription on both sides. Atrocities abound. Both sides search for allies and sources of support worldwide, no matter how marginal.

What role for Europe in the Middle East and North Africa?

Now that Europe is desperate to find new energy suppliers, the resource-rich countries of the Middle East and North Africa are hoping to boost their economy and influence.

  • Europe is unlikely to turn back to Russia for energy even after the war
  • MENA countries have suddenly become much more valuable allies
  • World powers’ competition for influence in the region will intensify

Burkina Faso: Another Russia-West hotspot?

A weak central government, a fragmented military and Islamic terrorism threaten to turn the Sahel nation into a geopolitical confrontation zone.

  • Two military coups in 2022 highlight political instability, horrendous violence
  • The nation may become the next battleground between Russia and the West
  • Strict military rule is seen as a bulwark against Islamic jihadist groups

The risks of an ISIS comeback

Islamic State has faced considerable losses in recent years, but not enough to permanently prevent the organization from resurging.

On February 9, 2022, the United States-led Global Coalition to Defeat ISIS issued a communique stating that it “remains resolutely committed to achieving the enduring defeat of ISIS. Recent events in Syria underscore both the success we continue to have in degrading Daesh/ISIS leadership and the continuing threat the terrorist group poses in the region and beyond.” Is the terror organization close to making a comeback? Despite sporadic successes, it still has a long way to go.

APPLY THE LOGIC OF THE AFGHANISTAN WITHDRAWAL TO SYRIA

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has entered its twelfth month. Reporting on the conflict understandably focuses on the day-to-day fighting and destruction, but it is important for Americans and U.S. policymakers to understand the larger issues raised by the war and the U.S. role in it. The following Defense Priorities analysis aims to improve understanding of these issues and what U.S. policy should prioritize as the war continues.

Map of Ukraine and contested territories

Apply the logic of the Afghanistan withdrawal to Syria

Key points

  • The logic President Biden used for removing U.S. troops from Afghanistan applies to Syria. Since a U.S. intervention should be defined by clear, achievable goals, and since long-range strikes, instead of occupying forces, can accomplish U.S. counterterrorism goals, there is no good case for keeping U.S. troops in Syria either.
  • Around 900 U.S. forces currently occupy territory in eastern and southern Syria, risking conflict with Syrian forces and local militias, as well as Russian, Iranian, and Turkish forces.
  • ISIS’s territorial caliphate in Syria was eliminated in 2019. The few, small, remote areas the remnants of ISIS now hold are largely within territory held by Syrian government forces. Local forces can fight the remnants of ISIS.
  • None of the other standard rationales for keeping U.S. forces in Syria—protecting the Kurds, countering Iran and Russia, unseating the Assad regime—justifies keeping troops in Syria either.