Author: M Barbu

Conflict Trends Update

BALTIC SEA

Two explosions Monday damaged the Nord Stream pipelines, which carry Russian natural gas to European markets, causing leaks into international waters off a Danish island. Russia had switched off the pipelines earlier in September amid tensions with the West over its war in Ukraine. European Commission head Ursula von der Leyen and NATO chief Jens Stoltenberg both described the blasts as “sabotage”. The press quoted unnamed European leaders pointing the finger at Moscow, which denied any role, suggesting instead that Washington had most to gain from damaging the pipelines. Crisis Group expert Giuseppe Famà says the incidents will not only add immediate pressure on European gas prices but also cast Nord Stream’s future into doubt as Europe strives to diversify its energy supply sources in order to curb its dependence on Russia.

China’s Road Not Taken

How the Chinese Communist Party Rewrites History

On January 18, 2005, tucked away just above a weather report on page four of People’s Daily, the main newspaper of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP), was a three-line notice reporting on the death of an elderly man: “Comrade Zhao Ziyang suffered from long-term diseases of the respiratory system and the cardiovascular system and had been hospitalized multiple times, and following the recent deterioration of his condition, he was unable to be rescued and died on January 17 in Beijing at the age of 85.”

US says citizen killed in Iran strikes on Iraqi Kurdistan

The United States said Thursday that one of its citizens was killed in Iranian strikes on Iraqi Kurdistan as it separately announced fresh enforcement of sanctions on Tehran’s oil sales.

Iran’s clerical state on Thursday carried out cross-border strikes, with 13 reported dead, amid unrest at home sparked by the death in custody of an Iranian Kurdish woman by the notorious morality police.

Haqqani meets border security, nomads in remote Khost district

Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan’s (IEA) Interior Minister Sarajuddin Haqqani met with border security and Kuchis during a visit to Kost province on Wednesday.

According to the ministry, Haqqani met with the two groups, along with locals, in a remote area in Gurbaz district close to the Durand Line.

Russia’s military isn’t ready for an escalation. Ukraine and its partners can exploit that.

Russian President Vladimir Putin’s decision to mobilize hundreds of thousands of Russian reserves this month will almost certainly exacerbate internal divisions within Russia by highlighting his regime’s poor military-personnel policies. This should prompt Ukraine and its Western allies to prepare for an onslaught of poorly trained, disjointed troops.

Which Giorgia Meloni will Washington get?

Long a controversial figure both at home and abroad over her party’s direct lineage from Italy’s neo-fascist movement, Giorgia Meloni is now expected to become the country’s newest prime minister after her party secured the most votes in Sunday’s election. Her controversial views on migration, erstwhile fascination with Russian President Vladimir Putin’s Russia, anti-LGBTQ stance, and open criticism toward the European Union (EU) have all contributed to her image as an unsavory right-wing politician.

Iran’s Crisis of Legitimacy

An Embattled Regime Faces Mass Protests—and an Ailing Supreme Leader

Early this month, the Iranian rumor mill cranked into overdrive amid reports that Iran’s 83-year-old supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, who survived prostate cancer surgery in 2014, was again gravely ill. On September 16, the New York Times reported that emergency bowel surgery had left Khamenei bedridden and too frail to sit upright, citing four anonymous sources said to be “familiar with his health situation.” In the wilder corners of Persian-language social media, claims that Khamenei was on his deathbed gave way to speculation that he had already died. As has happened for more than a decade, such rumors quickly morphed into feverish conjecture about how Iran’s Assembly of Experts, the body of 88 Islamic jurists who choose the supreme leader, would select Khamenei’s successor and lively debate over the relative merits of the clerics jockeying for the role.

Sudan’s Stalled ‘Transition’ Could Create a Failed State

Next month will mark the one-year anniversary of Sudan’s military coup, which toppled the transitional government created in 2019 after the overthrow of longtime dictator Omar al-Bashir. Almost a year after Gen. Abdel Fattah al-Burhan, Sudan’s military chief, announced what he described as his “corrective measures,” the country is faced not just with a stalemated transition but also a chaotic, paralyzed political landscape.