Author: M Barbu

Who is Sergey Surovikin, Russia’s new commander in Ukraine?

ON OCTOBER 10th more than 300 towns and cities across Ukraine were hit with the largest Russian air bombardment since the early days of the war. It was a suitably grisly way of marking the promotion of Sergei Surovikin, Russia’s new overall commander in Ukraine. Nicknamed “General Armageddon” by his colleagues, he has a fearsome reputation hardened over decades. General Surovikin is believed to have directed the war for months—but his formal appointment on October 8th marks a cruel new chapter. Who is he, and what does his promotion reveal about the Russian invasion?

Iran, the Gulf States and the Palestinian Issue

The Islamic Republic is experiencing major protests. This deep public anger is not just about the regime’s domestic policies but also resentment against its regional agenda, such as its interventions in the Arab world. Since 1979, the Islamists in Tehran have invested much in supporting Palestinian causes. But how is Iran’s track-record among the Palestinian political groups? Is Iran an enabler or a spoiler of the Palestinian cause? How has Iran so far reacted to the Abraham Accords of 2020 and does it see the idea of coexistence with Israel as a challenge to Iran’s anti-Israel model of “Axis of Resistance”? Finally, can Iran and the Gulf States that have signed the Abraham Accords perhaps find some common ground on how best to support the Palestinians in their aspirations? To discuss these issues, MEI is delighted to host a panel of experts moderated by Alex Vatanka, Senior Fellow and Director of the Iran Program.

The End of the Post-Soviet Order

How Putin’s War Has Hurt Russia in Central Asia and the Caucasus

The Kremlin has struggled to contain the fallout of its invasion of Ukraine. It did not imagine that its war would inspire sustained unity among Western countries, nor that the Ukrainian army would resist so well, nor that it would need to partly mobilize the Russian population, a drastic measure with potentially disastrous domestic consequences. A war intended to restore Russian strength has instead left the country weaker.

How to Avoid a War Over Taiwan

Threats, Assurances, and Effective Deterrence

As tension rises between Beijing and Washington over Taiwan, strategists on all sides seem to have forgotten what the American game theorist Thomas Schelling taught years ago: deterring an adversary from taking a proscribed action requires a combination of credible threats and credible assurances. Instead of heeding that lesson, a growing number of U.S. analysts and officials have called for the United States to treat Taiwan as if it were an independent state and to abandon the long-standing policy of “strategic ambiguity” in favor of “strategic clarity,” defined as an unconditional commitment to use military force to defend the island in the event of a mainland Chinese attack. These calls have intensified since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, with some commentators even advocating for formal recognition of Taiwan as a sovereign country. Still others have called for a permanent (and significant) deployment of U.S. forces to Taiwan to lend credibility to the U.S. threat of a military response to a mainland attack. In testimony before the U.S. Senate last year, Ely Ratner, the assistant secretary of defense for Indo-Pacific security affairs, implied that the United States could never allow Beijing to control Taiwan because such an outcome would make it impossible to defend other U.S. allies in Asia.

Effective Ways to Support the Iranian Protests

[T]he Biden administration, even during the Iranian regime’s current brutal crackdown on its own citizens, and the US Special Envoy for Iran, Robert Malley, are still seeking to revive the lethal “nuclear deal” — allowing the regime to enrich uranium to acquire an arsenal of nuclear weapons and the missiles to deliver them — and reassuring the mullahs that the US has no “policy of regime change.”

The next US battle tank could use AI to identify targets

Over the weekend, in a 55-second YouTube video with dramatic music, the world got a glimpse at a new killing machine that’s more fuel-efficient, quieter and sleek.

General Dynamics, the defense contracting juggernaut, showed off a prototype of its next-generation military tank, the AbramsX. It’s the biggest upgrade of America’s military tank technology since early in the Cold War, former military officials said, which presents both critical design advances and worries about unnecessary military spending.

The Folly of Iran’s Hard-Liners

A Repressive Regime Has Left Citizens With No Option but Revolt

Iran is no stranger to mass protests, but the demonstrations sparked by the killing in police custody of Mahsa Amini, a 22-year-old woman detained by the so-called morality police, signal a tipping point. For weeks now, Iranian women have shown extraordinary courage and a willingness to resist security forces in schools, in the streets, and in every other corner of the public sphere. They have stood bravely in intersections, marched down major thoroughfares, occupied squares, and erupted in chants at school assemblies, removing their headscarves in defiance of the strictures of the state. Their dogged resistance in the face of brutal crackdowns and arrests augurs the beginning of protracted protests throughout the country. In effect, every woman’s veil has been transformed, becoming a symbolic weapon against the regime, a unifying cause connecting all segments of the society, and a tool to galvanize global support.