Author: M Barbu

Germany steps up in the Western Balkans. Will the EU follow its lead?

On Thursday, the prime ministers of the six Western Balkan countries convened in Berlin to sign three important agreements—on mutual recognition of ID cards, university diplomas, and professional qualifications—as part of a revitalized “Berlin Process.” The signing is a meaningful step in rebuilding momentum for regional economic cooperation and integration, and it is a signal that European Union (EU) countries are once again focusing on the Balkans in the shadow of Russia’s ruinous invasion of Ukraine. That attention is paying dividends. And it couldn’t come at a more important time.

Germany can’t afford to fumble the ‘Zeitenwende’

The German government is eerily calm as an energy crisis threatens to wreck its economy, allies loudly question its intentions, and war rages on in Ukraine. There’s a palpable sense in Berlin that when it comes to the Zeitenwende—the historic turning point in foreign policy championed by Chancellor Olaf Scholz—Germany has time. After all, according to Wolfgang Schmidt, Scholz’s chief of staff, Germany is still a “teenager” when it comes to its leadership role in Europe and beyond. The world can’t expect Germany to complete a 180-degree shift on foreign and defense policy in a matter of months. But rest assured, its officials maintain, Germany is well on its way to mending its ways—at its own pace.

What Could Bring Putin Down?

Regime Collapse Is More Likely Than a Coup

Can Russian President Vladimir Putin lose the war in Ukraine and retain power? As Ukraine’s driving counteroffensive erodes Russia’s position on the battlefield, that question is getting increasing attention. Discussion has focused on the possibility of a coup, whether an armed insurrection by disgruntled Russian generals or a mutiny by Kremlin insiders. Although not impossible, neither of these is currently very likely. In fact, a different danger is more plausible: a comprehensive meltdown of the regime, as multiple challenges overwhelm its capacity to react and dysfunction drains confidence in Putin’s leadership.

Iran Battles Turkish Influence In South Caucasus – Analysis

Iran is trying to regain its influence in the South Caucasus. In October, it announced large-scale military exercises, dubbed “Mighty Iran”, near the border with Azerbaijan. The drills, a repeat of last year’s, should be seen as an expression of the growing discomfort within the Islamic Republic toward what it sees as the worsening geopolitical situation in the South Caucasus.

Russia’s Reliance On Iran, Sign Of Putin’s Isolation, Says Pentagon

Russian President Vladimir Putin is relying on Iran to supply weapons for his war in Ukraine, which is a sign of his isolation, Pentagon Press Secretary Air Force Brig. Gen. Pat Ryder said during a news conference.

Ryder could not confirm news reports that Russia has asked Iran for ballistic missiles and other capabilities, but he did confirm that Iran has provided hundreds of unmanned aerial vehicles to Russia. And Russian forces have used them to attack Ukraine.

Africa: As Terrorists Claim New Ground, An African Strategy Is Vital

Global terror groups have set their sights on Africa, making a common African Union-led approach a matter of urgency.

As Islamic State (IS) and al-Qaeda leaders have been targeted and eliminated internationally, the terrorist groups have expanded and consolidated their African operations. According to Jihad Analytics, half the attacks claimed by IS since the beginning of 2022 were carried out in 10 African countries. Among them were Cameroon, Chad, Niger and Nigeria – the four Boko Haram-affected countries of the Lake Chad Basin.

Leaders conclude 31st Arab League summit in Algeria

Arab leaders on Wednesday concluded the 31st summit of the largest annual Arab conference after seeking to bridge the gap on several divisive issues in the Middle East and Africa. The first Arab League gathering in three years took place against the backdrop of rising inflation, food and energy shortages, drought and the soaring cost of living across the region.

Interview with Ms. Sofia Koller, Senior Research Analyst at the German Counter Extremism Project (CEP)

About 1,150 individuals left Germany and traveled to the Middle East to join ISIS and other terrorist groups. Germany has conducted various repatriation operations bringing back ISIS-affiliated women and minors though many male fighters remain in Syria and Iraq. According to a recent report published by the Counter Extremism Project, at least 7 women and 22 children remain in the Al-Roj camp, with 2 German women also present in the Al-Howl camp in Northeast Syria.