How Syria will shape Europe’s future We cannot afford another refugee wave

War is of its nature an uncertain business. Only in retrospect does Assad’s fall, so improbable last week, now look fated. It is ironic, given the opprobrium with which Arab normalisation with his regime was greeted by pro-rebel advocates, that that same normalisation may have helped spell his doom. Seeking to reintegrate himself into the Arab fold, Assad allowed relations to cool with the Iran-centred Resistance Axis which had ensured his survival a decade ago. Yemen’s Houthis have accused Assad of clamping down on their activities in Syria to win Israeli and Gulf Arab favour; Iran now briefs that Assad was an ungrateful and undependable ally in their conflict with Israel; Hezbollah, smarting at Assad’s standoffish response to their recent setbacks, swiftly abandoned a last-minute attempt to preserve his rule.