Over the past decade, Iran’s regime has been involved in collaborations with criminal actors across the world, seeking to assassinate critics and adversaries, procure materials to advance its nuclear programme, circumvent international sanctions and money-laundering controls, and fund armed groups and terrorist organizations that have carried out horrific attacks.
The Iran-led “Axis of Resistance,” composed of a coalition of armed and political groups across Yemen, Lebanon, Syria, and Iraq, has been striving to play a significant role over the past year amid the ongoing conflict in Gaza. The military operations, tactics, and strategies of Hezbollah, a key player in this axis, are critical in shaping the future of the conflict in Lebanon and beyond.
Hamas after Yahya al-Sinwar: According to reports, Hamas would not elect a new head to
its political bureau until March 2025 and would rely on the leadership of a committee
composed of five senior members.
The end of one of the world’s deadliest and yet most shadowy wars is as difficult to predict as the end of the large peacekeeping force meant to contain it.
Congo desperately wants stability in its mineral-rich east, of intense interest to the global economy. But political friction means the government wants the longtime United Nations peacekeeping force there to get out.
Black Axe’s violent organized criminal network undermines economic development and political reform within Nigeria while scamming victims abroad out of billions via cybercrime.
A 21-country INTERPOL initiative known as Operation Jackal III targeting Black Axe, the Nigerian organized crime group, led to the arrest of 300 suspects and the seizure of $3 million in assets in a sting operation culminating in July 2024. While a victory for law enforcement, the action is unlikely to make a dent in the operations of Black Axe, which has an estimated 30,000 members in dozens of countries and yearly proceeds estimated to exceed $5 billion.
Ever since the start of the escalation in South Lebanon last October, with the harsh destruction and the dire economic situation of the residents of South and Central Lebanon, we have witnessed a significant rise of voices criticizing Hezbollah’s conduct.
It appears that Lebanon is being hijacked by foreign interests, utilizing Hezbollah, leading the beautiful and multicultural country into disaster.
Russia’s economy and war effort is coming under increasing strain, which will pose increasingly acute challenges to Russian President Vladimir Putin’s ability to sustain the war over the long term. The Washington Post reported on October 27 that the Russian economy is “in danger of overheating,” noting that Russia’s excessively high military spending has fueled economic growth in a way that has forced Russian companies to artificially raise their salaries in order to fulfill labor demands by remaining competitive with Russia’s high military salaries.[1] The Washington Post quoted Russian Central Bank Head Elvira Nabiullina, who warned in July 2024 that Russia’s labor force and production capacity are “almost exhausted.” The Washington Post noted that private Russian companies are struggling to keep up with Russian military salaries and are increasingly having to offer wages several times higher than the typical industry averages. ISW has recently reported that Russian regional authorities are significantly increasing the one-time signing bonuses for Russian contract servicemembers in order to sustain Russia’s rate of force generation (roughly 30,000 troops per month), which underscores the fact that Russia does not have an indefinite pool of manpower and must financially and socially reckon with the ever-growing costs of replenishing its frontline losses via various force-generation avenues.[2] The Washington Post also noted that Russia’s stringent migration policies, particularly after the March 2024 Crocus City Hall attack, have further depleted Russia’s labor pool and amplified economic frictions. This has particularly become the case as migrant workers are increasingly identifying Russia as a hostile and unattractive place to relocate for work.[3] ISW has reported at length on the balance that Putin is trying to strike between catering to his pro-war ultranationalist constituency, which espouses extreme anti-migrant sentiments, and his practical need to leverage migrant labor both economically and militarily.[4]
Georgia’s ruling Georgian Dream party has likely won a simple majority in the Georgian parliamentary election held on October 26, 2024, according to preliminary results. Partial preliminary results released by the Georgian Central Election Committee (CEC) on October 26 indicate that the Georgian Dream party will likely win the majority of seats in parliament, but the results are neither complete nor final.[1] The results suggest that Georgian Dream will form the new Georgian government, but that it will not have the 113 seats required to obtain the “constitutional majority” it needs to pursue some of the goals it has outlined, including outlawing nearly all opposition parties.[2] The CEC reported that voter turnout was nearly 59 percent- the highest since 2012 when Georgian Dream first came to power.[3]
On October 20, Moldova will hold its presidential election. At first glance, there seems to be little suspense — polls show that the incumbent president, Maia Sandu, is the overwhelming favorite. However, her chances of winning in the first round could be threatened by a network of supporters loyal to the exiled Moldovan oligarch Ilan Shor. Estimates suggest that this network includes between 120,000 and 400,000 people, making up around 10% of the electorate. At a critical moment, these supporters are expected to receive instructions on how to vote. Shor is also rallying people to vote against Moldova’s European integration in a referendum set to take place on the same day. A defeat in the referendum would be a serious blow to Sandu, giving her opponents ammunition to claim that the country is not truly interested in joining the European Union.
The recent expansion of BRICS presents considerable geopolitical ramifications, particularly for Russia, which has leveraged its membership to mitigate the economic and political isolation enforced by the United States and NATO since the commencement of the Russia-Ukraine conflict.