Author: M Barbu

Jama’at Nusrat al-Islam wal-Muslimin (JNIM)

This report analyzes the operations and organizational structure of the al-Qaeda-affiliated Jama’at Nusrat
al-Islam wal-Muslimin ( JNIM) in the Sahel region of Africa, focusing on the group’s engagement with illicit economies and tactical use of economic warfare. Specifically, the report emphasizes the central role of illicit economies in JNIM’s governance strategies, and in financing and resourcing the group’s armed struggle. It also tracks how JNIM has evolved organizationally, with these internal changes dictating shifts
in its involvement in regional illicit economies. These political and organizational changes, and the group’s highly strategic engagement with illicit economies, have underpinned JNIM’s expansion into new geographies, its retention of influence in areas of control, and its resilience to disruption.

The true President of America’s Fifth Republic Obama, not Biden, is the nation’s new Lincoln

The fireworks in America this Fourth of July will be fuelled by the country’s imminent election, in which a convicted felon faces off against a doddering old man who is too senile to know that he isn’t really the President. The country’s elite would be glad if this were hyperbole; unfortunately for them, it is not. But Joe Biden’s fitness for office is no longer the big question that the American press is afraid to ask. After three years of near-total silence, they suddenly can’t stop asking it.

War Fatigue in Central Europe is Spreading

Attitudes on the war paint a complex picture where existential security threats are twisted by domestic political dynamics, but a sense of weariness is becoming evident even in the region’s most pro-Ukrainian countries.

Espionage And Diplomacy – OpEd

The recent revelations by Australia’s national broadcaster, ABC, detailing the covert expulsion of four Indian intelligence officers in 2020, have stirred significant concern within the international community. These officers, allegedly attempting to infiltrate sensitive defense technologies and monitor the Indian-Australian community, highlight a troubling dimension of India’s intelligence operations abroad under Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s administration.

Why NATOizing Military Assistance To Ukraine Won’t Solve The Alliance’s Ukraine Dilemma – Analysis

Despite promises to support Ukraine for as long as necessary, many NATO Allies are starting to reach a tipping point in their military assistance to Ukraine. That reality, and the specter of Donald Trump’s reelection this November, has led some within the Alliance to call for the NATOization of the war in Ukraine. Absent consensus on extending Ukraine an invitation for NATO membership, NATO Allies have spent the last few months finalizing plans for alternative ways to show support for Ukraine at the upcoming Washington Summit. Intended to be a ‘bridge’ to NATO membership, the new measures—which will see NATO taking a larger role in coordination of allied training and security assistance—are unlikely to resolve the underlying dilemma the Alliance has faced since 2014: determining how far NATO should go in supporting Ukraine absent a formal collective defense security guarantee by the Alliance. Moreover, by fundamentally altering NATO’s role in the conflict, the new measures could actually increase ambiguity surrounding the Allies’ commitment to the defense of Ukraine, prompting Russian president Vladimir Putin to potentially test the Alliance’s resolve.

Fresh Russia-Türkiye Spat Endangers Long-Term Ties

Moscow’s anger over Turkish arms supplies to Kyiv and compliance with U.S. sanctions threatens a rift between the on-off allies.

The ever-turbulent relationship between Russia and Türkiye is on the brink of a new crisis. In early June, Russian President Vladimir Putin openly reproached Ankara for providing military aid to Kyiv, and also complained about its cooperation with Western financial institutions over sanctions.

Maybe nobody lost Turkey, NATO should stop pretending nothing is wrong

Understanding Turkey’s relationship with its Western allies is challenging, at times, non-sensical. Scholars debate between whether the West actually ‘lost’ Turkey, or whether Ankara actually chose to drift away from being identified as a stalwart member of NATO, or a key strategic ally of the US Some say, it’s neither. It is simply a function of a more independent and economically assertive Turkey, seeking strategic autonomy, that does not feel obligated to tow the western line at all times. Whichever explanation one sees as correct, is less important than the long list of grievances that isolates Turkey inside of NATO and its relationship with Washington. These range from Turkey’s foot-dragging over NATO expansion, adding Finland and Sweden to the alliance, all the way to actively supporting Russia’s war effort in Ukraine. Some argue that despite lingering problems, there is no need for alarm, as many of the disagreements are not new, are managed, and as a result, Turkey and the West can continue to coast along by co-operating in areas where they agree and agreeing to disagree, where they don’t. This is unsustainable.

Securing Lebanon to Prevent a Larger Hezbollah-Israel War and Wider Escalation

As tensions between Israel and Hezbollah escalate, the specter of a full-scale war, with the potential to draw in the United States and Iran, demands the US’ immediate attention. The Biden-Harris Administration has tasked, in response, White House Senior Advisor Amos Hochstein with the responsibility of mediating efforts to de-escalate the conflict and bring stability to the Lebanon-Israel border.