Author: M Barbu

The Complex Reality of Great Power Competition in the Middle East

Four indicators show trends of engagement, but the region remains immune to sweeping generalizations.

In the collective memories of people across the Middle East and North Africa, great power rivalries have shaped the region’s fate at multiple critical junctures. In the first part of the twentieth century, following the defeat of the Ottoman Empire in World War I, colonial competition between Britain and France created the modern borders and nation-states of the Middle East. Toward the end of the century and after five Arab-Israeli wars, crucial peace treaties and multilateral negotiations were mediated by great powers, particularly the United States.

Russia’s relations with Hezbollah amid escalation on Lebanon-Israel border

On Aug. 26, following a retaliatory strike by Hezbollah against Israel for the killing of senior commander Fuad Shukr at the end of July, Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova expressed “deep concern over the dangerous increase in tensions in the Lebanese-Israeli border area” and urged all involved parties to exercise “maximum restraint.” Zakharova viewed this escalation as an extension of Israel’s ongoing war with Hamas and called for a “speedy cease-fire” in the Gaza Strip that would serve as a gateway to stabilizing the Middle East.

From the Ukraine Conflict to a Secure Europe

Introduction

Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 put an end to European security as a cooperative project. That project was grounded in the so-called Helsinki Decalogue, a declaration within the 1975 Helsinki Final Act that laid out agreed principles of conduct between the West and the Soviet bloc.1 In the years and decades that followed, European security grew in complexity and scope, especially after the end of the Cold War and the breakup of the Soviet Union. Arms control agreements, institutional arrangements between the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) and Russia, and the agencies of the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) gave an ever denser structure to the security order. That order has collapsed. European security needs now to be reimagined and rebuilt during what promises to be a prolonged period of Russian hostility and obstructionism.

Spotlight on Iran and the Shiite Axis

Amid the ongoing delay in Iran’s response to the killing of Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran, senior Iranian military officials have stepped up their statements concerning Iran’s commitment to retaliate against Israel at the appropriate time, albeit with different characteristics than the Iranian attack on Israel in April 2024.

Commentary: The Global Jihadi Terror Threat in September 2024

The terrorist threat from jihadi groups was progressively degraded by counterterrorism measures after 9/11. The military defeat of the Islamic State ushered in a period from about 2017 of unusually low threat in non-conflict zones around the world, followed by some disinvestment from CT by Western governments. However, Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine and the Gaza war have seen a collapse of international unity of purpose on CT. Meanwhile, the underlying factors driving violent jihadi extremism are growing more acute, and the success of the Islamic State and al-Qa`ida in conflict zones is generating safe havens for them to revive their external operations capabilities. The global jihadi threat has already risen and is likely to increase further. Attacks should be expected in the West, and it would be a mistake for governments to disinvest further from CT.

Spotlight on Iran and the Shiite Axis

  • Senior Iranian officials condemned the IDF’s activity in Judea and Samaria and accused Israel of striving to expand the scope of the “killings and crimes” against the Palestinians.
  • Senior Iranian officials continued to threaten to respond to the killing of Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran but stressed that the response would be calculated and would not play into Israel’s hands.
  • The defense ministers of Iran and Syria discussed expanding cooperation between the two countries, including against Israel.
  • Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi met in Tehran with Hezbollah’s representative in Iran. The meeting took place as part of the new foreign minister’s ongoing efforts to reaffirm Iran’s continued support for its proxies amidst the backdrop of the change of government in Tehran.
  • The United Kingdom imposed new sanctions on Qods Force’s Unit 700 and three IRGC members for their involvement in destabilizing activities in the region and Britain. The Islamic Resistance in Iraq claimed responsibility for two drone attacks against targets in the Haifa area. The IDF Spokesperson reported the downing of UAVs approaching Israel from the direction of Syria and the east.

European Youth is Joining ISIL En Masse

The ever growing threat of jihadist movements to the civilized world has recently been stressed by a wide array of media outlets and politicians in Europe. As noted in a recent UN report, more than 25,000 foreigners from a total of 100 countries have joined militant Islamist terrorist groups such as Al Qaeda and the Islamic State (ISIL). In Syria and Iraq, there’s more than 22,000 foreign fighters, while some 6,500 are operating in Afghanistan. The total number of foreign radicals in Yemen, Libya, Pakistan and Somalia remains unknown.

The Rise of the Radicals – The Narrative of Terror Hides Behind its Ideologues

743534324The 2016 BBC documentary on Deobandis in the UK exposed what many of us knew all along. That the Muslim communities in the United Kingdom are not a monolithic and that there are some schools of thoughts that dominate terrorist violence and intolerance, while other Muslims are held collectively responsible. Most disturbingly, the vast and significant network of Deobandi madrasas in the UK have hosted globally designated terrorist like Masood Azhar, head of JeM.