Author: M Barbu

Five scenarios for the US-Iran conflict

The U.S. and Iran are locked in conflict. Regardless of the details or culpability regarding the latest attack on two tankers in the Gulf, the conflict is centered on Washington’s “maximum pressure” campaign and Tehran’s response that it will not sit idly by while its economy is brought to its knees. Instead, Tehran has communicated that it will inflict a heavy toll on U.S. partners in the region, especially Saudi Arabia and the UAE, and that if it can’t export its oil, other countries won’t be allowed to export theirs either. This conflict system is likely to endure, at least until the U.S. elections in November of next year, as the Trump administration is unlikely to lift sanctions and Iran will not quietly accept its fate. Among the many questions is what shape this conflict might take in the weeks and months ahead. Below, I sketch out five possibilities.

Arabs’ Nightmare: Absorbing Palestinians

Lebanon says it fully supports the Palestinians in their fight against Israel — but would like to see them leave the country as soon as possible.

This is the modern-day version of Arab “solidarity” with their Palestinian brothers: discrimination and apartheid — no jobs, no citizenship, no health care and no social services.

The Risks of Civil War in Sudan

Civilian pro-democracy protesters were gunned down on Monday by Sudanese security forces in Khartoum, the country’s capital.

According to various media reports, at least thirteen protesters were killed and approximately 200 injured.

Turning the Tables on “Global Zero”

  • As it turns out, the modernization of America’s nuclear deterrent would require, at most, only around 3% of the annual defense budget.
  • “International arms control relies on adherence to reciprocal obligations and nations should not be required to subject themselves to unilateral observance of them. Arms control more generally is undermined by violations going unchallenged.” — Forces Network, UK, April 4, 2019.
  • “Vladimir Putin and Xi Jinping continue to expand and modernize their nuclear arsenals. Future arms-control agreements must take into account both the Russian and Chinese threats, while ensuring we don’t place one-sided nuclear restrictions on ourselves.” — Senator Tom Cotton; May 13, 2019.
  • “We must… realize that America will not be able to achieve the necessary changes to New START unless it is negotiating from a position of strength. That means Congress must invest in the modernization of our nuclear triad and the additional low-yield capabilities called for in the 2018 Nuclear Posture Review. These investments are critical to America’s ability to rein in China and Russia.” — Representative Liz Cheney; May 13, 2019.

CEP to Release New Resources Detailing Links Between Extremism & Online Radicalization

New Series Will Build Upon Extremism Spotlight Series

Earlier this year, the Counter Extremism Project (CEP) highlighted the online presence of dangerous extremist propagandists known to law enforcement and intelligence communities as well as notorious extremist content with links to violence in its Extremism Spotlight series. Continuing to allow this material to remain online to radicalize followers and incite violence is inexplicable, especially in light of Google-owned YouTube’s decision in November 2017 to remove notorious al-Qaeda propagandist Anwar al-Awlaki from its platform in a “watershed moment.”