Author: M Barbu

Scenarios of the State and the Governing System in Post-Assad Syria

The spotlight and many analyses are on the future of Syria and its ruling system after the change of President Bashar al-Assad’s regime. Many questions are raised about the country’s political and social future, the future shape of Syria and its ruling system, and how politics can be recycled away from internal competition for power and external interventions. Despite the regional and international consensus on the need to establish stability in Syria, the risks associated with the transitional path may result in several repercussions, especially with regard to the tactical agreements between the Syrian armed and political forces.

Captured documents reveal how Iran smugglesweapons via Syria and Jordan

For years, Iran, its Iranian Revolutionary Guards Corps and Qods Force, have been
operating a network smuggling weapons and funds to its proxies in the Middle East, primarily
Hezbollah and Hamas. Until the overthrow of the Assad regime in early December 2024, Syria
was the main smuggling route for arming Hezbollah with advanced precision weapons, many
of which were used to attack Israel.

Le péril jaune et les bases idéologiques de la xénophobie occidentale

L’unité militariste et raciste de l’Occident se crée par le seul moyen de la soumission de races et peuples inférieurs qui sont alors décrits comme coupables et menaçants… la constante d’un impérialisme en perpétuelle mutation dans l’évolution de ses propres contradictions…

Le péril jaune, cette expression n’est plus guère employée mais reste dans l’imaginaire collectif. Retourner à l’origine de l’expression et à son auteur n’est pas inutile pour mesurer le substrat, l’empilement des «interprétations», sur lequel s’enracinent nos préjugés d’aujourd’hui. Ceux qui nous rendent inaptes à entendre la demande d’un dialogue nécessaire autour de notre «destin commun».

The Western Balkans At A Crossroads: An Old War From In New Geopolitical Compositions (Part II) – OpEd

The Western Balkans is transforming into one of the primary fronts of confrontation between global powers, where Russia’s and Serbia’s hybrid strategies directly challenge the stability and sovereignty of countries in the region. This paper examines the complex dimensions of this hybrid warfare, focusing on recent attacks in Banjska and Zvecan, which signify a deliberate escalation aimed at destabilizing Kosovo. Through the use of demographic manipulations, sabotage of critical infrastructure, and the provocation of ethnic tensions, Russia and Serbia are leveraging the Balkans as a battleground to advance their strategic projects, such as “Srpski Svet” and “Ruski Mir”.

How Turkey aims to capitalise on Syria’s rebel offensive

Analysis: The crisis could allow Turkey to advance two long-held goals: the mass return of Syrian refugees and eliminating the Kurdish presence on its border.

Syria’s civil war has returned to the spotlight as groups opposed to President Bashar Al-Assad launched surprise offensives last week, capturing parts of Aleppo, the country’s second-largest city, and gaining ground in the city for the first time since 2015.

Syria Insight: Assad’s rampant corruption leads to his downfall

The Syrian Arab Army is no more, an institution built to fight Israel that eventually ate itself due to rampant corruption and ineptitude.

Few analysts could have predicted the events that unfolded last week in Syria when a limited rebel offensive in Aleppo province led to the downfall of Bashar Al-Assad’s regime, 13 years after a revolution against his corrupt and authoritarian rule began.

What the fall of Assad could mean for the Middle East

Analysis: The end of the Assad family’s 54-year rule is the start of a new chapter in Syrian history, one that will have reverberations across the Middle East.

For years, many commentators inaccurately claimed that former Syrian President Bashar al-Assad and his government had “won” the civil war. In truth, the Assad regime had, until a few days ago, merely survived the conflict, which froze in 2020.

Looking West: The Houthis’ Expanding Footprint in the Horn of Africa

Abstract: The Yemen-based Houthis’ top priority is the continued development of their unmanned vehicle and missile programs. Both programs are vital to the Houthis’ ability to exert leverage over both their domestic and external enemies. Securing supply chains and funding for the programs, especially funding and supplies that are independent of Iran, is a key objective for the Houthi leadership. To this end, the Houthis have deepened their relationship with Yemen-based al-Qa`ida in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP). AQAP, in turn, has opened new doors for the Houthis to interact with Horn of Africa-based militant groups such as al-Shabaab. Both AQAP and al-Shabaab now act as facilitators and, to a degree, as partners that help the Houthis smuggle needed materiel into and out of Yemen. These relationships are also vital to the Houthis’ expanding efforts to fund their weapons programs and the broader organization. The Houthis’ relationship with al-Shabaab and Horn of Africa-based smugglers points to the organization’s growing footprint in the Horn of Africa.

How the Wagner Group Is Aggravating the Jihadi Threat in the Sahel

Abstract: Over the past year, mercenaries from the Wagner Group, a private military company with very close ties to the Kremlin, deployed to Mali—first to Bamako, the capital, then to the central part of the country, then in the east all the way to Gao and Ménaka and in the north to Timbuktu. The arrival of Russian mercenaries hastened the departure of French and European forces. However, the Russian private military company did not deploy capable, disciplined, and well-equipped troops to fill the gap, and its brutal and indiscriminate counterinsurgency efforts are serving as a recruiting tool for the jihadis. A year after the arrival of the Russian mercenaries to Mali, the security situation has worsened. Despite ongoing fighting between al-Qa`ida and the Islamic State’s branches in the Sahel, the two terrorist groups are consolidating their sanctuaries and gaining an unprecedented range of action. With concern that Wagner may seek out Burkina Faso as its next client, the Russian mercenaries’ aggravation of the jihadi threat has very concerning implications for the stability and security of the region.

En Occident, la mascarade électorale s’est éteinte, refroidie par l’ordre fondé sur les règles

Les derniers mois ont été éprouvants pour la démocratie. Les résultats d’élections hostiles à l’Union européenne ont été annulés en Roumanie. Une tentative de coup d’État a eu lieu en Géorgie à la suite d’élections qui ne se sont pas déroulées comme le souhaitait l’Occident. Le gouvernement français, largement conspué, s’est retrouvé au bord de l’abîme quand le président Emmanuel Macron a tenté d’ignorer les dernières élections. Le 16 décembre, le gouvernement allemand, chouchou de Washington, a été défait. Le référendum et les élections en Moldavie ont donné lieu à de nombreuses manipulations, les électeurs moldaves vivant en Russie ayant été privés de leur droit de vote. Les élections sont annulées depuis longtemps dans l’Ukraine dictatoriale, et la Corée du Sud a été le théâtre d’une tentative de coup d’État. En bref, la passion des démocraties occidentales pour les élections est révolue. Alors que les populations occidentales en ont assez de leur classe politique et se prononcent négativement, que peuvent faire les élites ? Annuler, renverser les gouvernements et ignorer les élections, voilà la solution. Le problème, pour l’Occident, ce sont les électeurs.