Author: M Barbu

Executive summary

Guinea has remained largely insulated from the militant violence affecting neighboring Mali. However, the security environment along the Mali-Guinea border has become increasingly fragile as the al-Qaeda-affiliated Jama’at Nusrat al-Islam wal-Muslimin (JNIM) has expanded and entrenched its presence across southern Mali. This expansion has brought militant activity closer to Guinea’s eastern border areas, where major industrial and artisanal mining sites are located. Although there is limited evidence of sustained militant operations inside Guinea, official warnings, suspected reconnaissance, militant recruitment, violent incidents, and counter-terrorism investigations point to an elevated risk of future spillover.

Senegal faces no immediate threat from JNIM, but the group’s entrenchment in bordering Mali gives it access to cross-border communities, trade, and gold mining.

Heni Nsaibia, West Africa Senior Analyst at ACLED, said:

“The Islamic State Sahel Province (ISSP) has claimed a major battlefield victory over its al-Qaeda-affiliated rival, Jama’at Nusrat al-Islam wal-Muslimin (JNIM), following clashes in the area of Kacham in Burkina Faso’s northern Sahel region earlier this month. ISSP claims to have killed more than 200 JNIM fighters, wounded dozens, captured and subsequently executed more than 30 others, and seized large quantities of weapons and motorcycles. If accurate, the reported death toll would make this the deadliest battle between the groups recorded by ACLED.

Civilians in Eritrea face ongoing systematic and widespread violations of human rights that may amount to crimes against humanity. Eritrean armed forces have also been accused of potential war crimes and crimes against humanity in neighboring Ethiopia.

Populations in Sudan are enduring war crimes and crimes against humanity due to an armed confrontation between the Sudanese military, the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF) and allied armed groups. Non-Arab communities in Darfur are enduring crimes perpetrated by the RSF that may amount to acts of genocide.

UN EXPERT WARNS OF ONGOING ATROCITIES IN ERITREA

On 19 June the UN Special Rapporteur on the situation of human rights in Eritrea, Mohamed Abdelsalam Babiker, concluded that there remain “reasonable grounds to believe that crimes against humanity continue in Eritrea.” Presenting his latest report to the UN Human Rights Council (HRC), he warned that there are “no signs of meaningful improvement” in the country’s human rights situation and highlighted the government’s ongoing reliance on repression, arbitrary detention, enforced disappearance and indefinite national service. He further noted that grave violations persist amid widespread impunity, with no accountability for past or ongoing abuses.