Author: M Barbu

As long as the group’s economic, political, and institutional ecosystem remains intact, officials will need to pair disarmament efforts with a sustained strategy to target financial networks, political influence, and judicial infiltration.

The US’s tactical military successes in the Strait of Hormuz do not solve the strategic problem, as Iran uses asymmetric tactics, turning US military dominance into an endless and costly conflict with no clear political outcome.

There are proven ways to address the widescale abuses enacted by Turkish authorities since a failed coup in July 2016. But all of them require political will and civic energy.

Ten years have passed since the failed coup of July 15, 2016, in Turkey. Authorities blamed an army faction loyal to the so-called Gulen Movement, branded the ‘Fetullahist Terrorist Organization’, FETO, and declared a threat to national security.

La guerre de quarante jours déclenchée le 28 février 2026 a révélé les limites de la supériorité militaire américaine face à l’Iran. Trois mois plus tard, Washington tente une approche plus pragmatique : maintenir Ormuz suffisamment ouvert pour éviter un choc énergétique mondial, affaiblir les relais régionaux de Téhéran sans déclencher une nouvelle guerre totale.

Key Takeaways

The United States has continued to strike Iranian military targets, including some targets further inland. Iranian regime media reported on July 15 that US forces struck the Artesh Ground Forces 388th Mechanized Assault Brigade barracks in Iranshahr, Sistan and Baluchistan Province. This strike is notable given that the 388th Brigade is located around 200 kilometers from the Iranian coast, while most US airstrikes in July have been concentrated around Iran’s southern coast. The Artesh has conducted operations throughout the war and most recently claimed on July 15 that it conducted drone strikes targeting US forces at Muwaffaq Salti Airbase in Azraq, Jordan.

Iraqi media reported on July 15 that an unknown actor launched six drones targeting Erbil International Airport and the US Consulate in Erbil, Erbil Province. It is unclear whether Iran or Iranian-backed Iraqi militias conducted this attack.

Iran is attacking vessels that have adopted alternative mechanisms to bypass Iranian control of the Strait of Hormuz. Iran attacked three vessels in the strait on July 13, two of which were doing “shuttle runs,” or repeated short trips to ports outside the strait in order to transport oil through the strait while avoiding Iranian territorial waters.

Iran’s attacks on shipping are having some success in deterring shipping companies from using routes outside Iran’s illegal traffic separation scheme, which advances Iran’s objective of securing control over the strait. Seven maritime security and shipping industry sources told Reuters on July 15 that shipping companies are avoiding using the southern route despite US military escorts, highlighting how shipping companies’ willingness to use alternative routes in the strait is dependent on their risk calculations.

On July 13, 2026, the Yemeni Iran-backed Ansar Allah Movement (Houthis) accused Saudi Arabia of carrying out an airstrike targeting Sanaa International Airport, describing the alleged attack as a “dangerous escalation” aimed at preventing a Houthi delegation from returning to Yemen.

Amid the military escalation between the Houthis and Saudi Arabia in recent days,[1] Yemeni journalist Hani Salem Mashour published an article in the London-based Emirati daily Al-Arab in which he held Saudi Arabia responsible for the situation. He argued that Riyadh’s conciliatory policy toward the Houthis over the past two decades enabled them to grow stronger and deepen their ties with Iran. As a result, they became a major military force that can now threaten international shipping, strike deep inside Saudi Arabia, and even confront the U.S. directly. Mashour added that the Houthis are now a reality and can no longer be defeated through military means alone. Therefore, efforts should focus on containing their expansion beyond Yemen’s borders and weakening their ties to Iran—similar to the strategy currently being pursued against Hizbullah in Lebanon and the Popular Mobilization Forces (PMU) militias in Iraq.