This report highlights the contradictions in Trump’s second-term discourse—the inconsistency between the idea of “America First” and peace.
There is substantial evidence suggesting that Trump’s strong return to power will only accelerate the destruction of the remnants of the status quo in the Middle East—a process he initiated during his first presidency. Without a doubt, Trump 2, by any measure, will be a complete disaster for the Palestinians and their aspirations for an independent state. The continuation of pro-Israel policies, along with the escalating trend of occupation, will sideline diplomatic solutions, which—alongside the prospect of normalizing relations between some Arab countries and Tel Aviv—will further weaken hopes for the establishment of an independent Palestinian state.
During Trump’s first term, U.S. policies were heavily influenced by radical right-wing religious figures who strongly supported Israel—whether as financial backers or policymakers within his administration. Under Trump and his senior advisor (and son-in-law) Jared Kushner, Washington became a playground for the settler movement’s policies. Figures like David Friedman, the former U.S. ambassador to Israel, openly aligned themselves with this movement.
Trump 1 fundamentally altered longstanding policies in the Middle East: in December 2017, he recognized Jerusalem as Israel’s capital; in May 2018, he moved the U.S. embassy from Tel Aviv to Jerusalem; in the same month, he unilaterally withdrew from the Iran nuclear deal (JCPOA) and imposed severe sanctions on Iran. Later that year, in September, he shut down the Palestine Liberation Organization (PLO) office in Washington, and in January 2020, under his direct order, the U.S. military assassinated General Qassem Soleimani, the commander of Iran’s Quds Force, in Baghdad—an act that significantly escalated tensions between Iran and the U.S.
However, none of these actions were more detrimental to the Palestinian cause than his push for the Abraham Accords—an initiative his successor, Joe Biden, continued pursuing until the unexpected events of October 7. Before that moment, the entire Middle East was anticipating an imminent decision from Saudi Arabia to normalize ties with Israel. The idea was that, with Palestinian aspirations permanently buried, Israel would become the epicenter of regional diplomacy and geopolitical shifts.
Given this background, it is not difficult to predict that a second Trump term would bring even worse consequences for Palestine and the broader Middle East peace process. This time, restraining Trump’s erratic but ambitious tendencies will be nearly impossible. He is now more experienced, enjoys strong popular support, is surrounded by fervent pro-Israel officials loyal to him, and, crucially, has a Republican-controlled Congress at his disposal.
Trump wasted no time in reversing Biden-era sanctions on Israeli settlers accused of attacks against Palestinians in the West Bank. He lifted Biden’s arms restrictions on Israel—including the suspension of 2,000-pound bomb sales due to concerns about civilian casualties in Gaza. He also floated the controversial idea of U.S. control over Gaza, suggesting resettling its population in Egypt and Jordan. Moreover, statements from his potential appointees to the UN and Israel indicate that he would support West Bank annexation based on biblical claims.
So, is Trump’s second term merely a prelude to more territorial changes—such as annexing parts of the West Bank, permanently dividing Gaza, re-establishing Israeli settlements in northern Gaza, clearing border areas in southern Lebanon, or even expanding Israeli control over the Golan Heights? These developments could all unfold without significant obstacles under his leadership. If such scenarios materialize, would the notion of achieving peace in the Middle East be anything more than a logical paradox or an unattainable illusion?
Meanwhile, in his inauguration speech as the 47th President of the United States on January 20, Trump outlined his vision for the next four years, claiming that his proudest legacy would be serving as a “messenger of peace and unity.” He declared, “We will measure our success not only by the battles we win but also by the wars we end—and perhaps most importantly, by the wars we never enter.”
He then referenced the release of the first group of Israeli hostages held by Hamas in Gaza, portraying it as a glimpse of his future achievements. Ironically, however, on the same day, while signing a series of controversial executive orders in the Oval Office, he told reporters that he was not entirely confident about the sustainability of the ceasefire largely credited to him. And he was right to be skeptical.
Before returning to the White House, Trump had repeatedly called for an end to Israel’s war in Gaza. One of his main campaign promises for his second term—besides “America First”—was to end what he called “stupid wars.” However, his early actions in office, which strongly indicate an even deeper, unconditional commitment to Israel than in his first term, reveal an unresolved paradox: the contradiction between “America First” and peace.
Trump’s second term has begun while conflicts in the Middle East continue, and the compatibility of his “America First” vision with achieving peace and stability—especially in one of the world’s most volatile regions—remains highly doubtful.