Is the new Turkish-Saudi-Pakistani defense pact an attempt at an Islamic NATO or a strategic self-sabotage?
Excerpt
The idea of a budding “Islamic NATO” under Turkey, Pakistan, and Saudi Arabia might seem bold and fresh in a period of Middle Eastern “realignment.” But don’t dismiss it out of hand as the emergence of a symbolic new regional alliance: the trilateral convergence risks creating conflicting security commitments. In the event that a pact is signed, NATO’s southern flank might face strategic incoherence if Ankara’s obligations were to diverge from the alliance’s priorities, challenging coordination with Washington and European partners.
Given Pakistan’s status as a nuclear power, the pact could perpetuate strategic ambiguities. Even if official language doesn’t extend Pakistan’s nuclear umbrella to partners, the perception of potential nuclear backing for Saudi Arabia—and, eventually, Turkey—could heighten crisis instability and miscalculation risks. One disgruntled state is India. Pakistan’s contentious relationship with India is well-established. India has already expressed concern over the emergence of the Saudi-Pakistan pact signed in September 2025. Adding Turkey, whose ties with India are already fraught, is likely to intensify strategic competition across the wider Indo-Middle East corridor.
Perhaps most worryingly, the pact between the three Muslim states is likely to be perceived and possibly marketed as a counter-balancing initiative to Israel and the Abraham Accords signatory states, which in turn is a motivator to harden security competition throughout the region that could “destabilize already fragile balances, undermine existing deterrence frameworks, and sharply increase risks for Israel and Western interests.”
Whose NATO Is Turkey Loyal To?
It would be mere hypocrisy to suggest Turkey is forbidden from seeking strategic alliances outside of NATO, after all, some of the United States’ most important allies are non-NATO countries. But despite some analysts’ insistence that concern over Turkey’s reduced commitment to NATO is missing the point, Ankara joining a defense pact with Riyadh and a nuclear-armed Islamabad is a serious conflict of interest.