The capture of Damascus on December 8, 2024, signifies a crucial stage in the Syrian conflict, indicating the dissolution of President Bashar al-Assad’s regime and the establishment of a transitional government. The political and military transition has been significant; however, the humanitarian crisis afflicting Syria continues to represent the most urgent and persistent challenge for the newly established regime.
In light of the urgent need for assistance affecting over 16.7 million individuals, coupled with a deteriorating economy and extensive displacement, the newly established government confronts a formidable challenge in the stabilization of a nation that has endured more than a decade of conflict. This commentary elucidates the complex humanitarian challenges and emphasizes the imperative for a comprehensive response to effectively tackle the ongoing crisis.
The Establishment of the Syrian Transitional Government
The formation of the Syrian transitional governmet in December 2024 signifies a pivotal moment in the protracted humanitarian crisis that has afflicted Syria for more than ten years. Subsequent to the collapse of the Assad administration and the exile of former President Bashar al-Assad, the Syrian opposition capitalized on the situation to establish a provisional government focused on reestablishing stability and meeting the urgent needs of the populace. Nevertheless, the obstacles confronting this new administration are substantial, as the humanitarian catastrophe in Syria persists as one of the most acute globally. The Syrian civil war, initiated in 2011, has caused the deaths of hundreds of thousands and displaced millions both domestically and internationally.
Al-Julani’s Telegram announcement conveyed a prudent governance strategy, indicating that public institutions would not be seized violently but would be temporarily administered by Prime Minister Mohammad Ghazi al-Jalali. This choice demonstrates an awareness of the necessity for a smooth transition, as al-Jalali articulated his dedication to collaborating with the Syrian public and promoting a feeling of normalcy in the nation. His perception of Syria as a “normal country” capable of diplomatic engagement highlights the aspiration for a resolution to the protracted conflict, which has inflicted considerable misery on millions of Syrians.
The Scope of the Humanitarian Crisis
The humanitarian emergency in Syria represents one of the most complicated and enduring crises in contemporary history. In 2024, the UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (UNOCHA) projects that 16.7 million Syrians, which constitutes roughly 75% of the population, are in need of humanitarian assistance. This marks a significant rise from the 15.3 million reported in 2023. The aggregate consequences of 13 years marked by conflict, economic disintegration, and natural calamities have resulted in the severe degradation of livelihoods, infrastructure, and essential services.
The socio-economic conditions in Syria have experienced a marked decline. The collapse of the Syrian pound, in conjunction with hyperinflation, has rendered millions incapable of affording essential necessities. Food insecurity has reached critical levels, affecting a minimum of 12.9 million individuals in need of food assistance. Among this population, 3.1 million individuals are categorized as experiencing severe food insecurity. The earthquakes that occurred in February 2023 intensified the existing food scarcity, posing a significant risk of pushing an additional 665,000 Syrians into a state of hunger. The prevailing conditions have engendered a detrimental cycle of poverty and deprivation, necessitating ongoing intervention for reversal.
Displacement continues to be a pivotal characteristic of the Syrian crisis. As of 2024, more than 5.5 million Syrians remain internally displaced, predominantly located in the northwest region. The region that experienced the significant impact of the February 2023 earthquakes is poorly prepared to accommodate a substantial population, primarily due to insufficient infrastructure and restricted access to essential services. The devastation of residential structures, educational institutions, and medical facilities has exacerbated the plight of internally displaced persons, rendering them reliant on humanitarian assistance. Alongside the phenomenon of internal displacement, more than 5 million Syrians have been documented as refugees in neighbouring countries, including Turkey, Lebanon, and Jordan. The host nations encounter distinct economic and political challenges, which increasingly complicate their ability to offer sufficient support. The absence of formal refugee or asylum legislation in Syria exacerbates the situation, rendering displaced populations susceptible to exploitation and abuse.
The financial crisis in Syria serves as a significant catalyst for the ongoing humanitarian crisis. The World Bank indicates that Syria’s GDP experienced a contraction exceeding fifty percent from 2010 to 2020, with the circumstances deteriorating further in subsequent years. The economic difficulties faced by Syria can be attributed to a confluence of factors, including the COVID-19 pandemic, Western sanctions, the disintegration of Lebanon’s banking sector, and the worldwide economic repercussions stemming from Russia’s conflict in Ukraine. The aforementioned challenges have culminated in significant increases in the prices of essential goods, pervasive unemployment, and a deterioration of public services.
The issue of food insecurity is notably severe. The World Food Programme (WFP) has issued a cautionary statement indicating that food prices have experienced an increase of over 100% since January 2023. Concerning rates of child stunting and maternal malnutrition are being documented, suggesting potential long-term health implications for forthcoming generations. The prospective cessation of the World Food Programme’s primary assistance initiative in January 2024, which presently aids 3.2 million individuals in Syria, represents a considerable risk to the survival of the affected population.
The healthcare system in Syria has been approached to a state of collapse. The protracted conflict has inflicted significant harm on medical facilities, while assaults on healthcare providers have exacerbated the deterioration of the system. The cholera outbreak, which was officially declared in September 2022, has disseminated swiftly, primarily attributable to insufficient access to clean water and inadequate healthcare services. As of late 2024, there were more than 189,000 reported suspected cases, predominantly located in the regions of Idlib and Aleppo. The earthquakes that occurred in February 2023 significantly disrupted healthcare services, which were already under strain, leading to a diversion of limited resources and further exacerbating the ongoing crisis. The healthcare system’s failure to adequately address emergencies has resulted in millions lacking access to vital medical services. Mental health conditions, such as post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD), are prevalent, underscoring the necessity for a thorough healthcare response.
The accessibility of humanitarian assistance continues to pose a considerable challenge in Syria. The persistent hostilities, especially in the northeastern region, have significantly impeded the mobility of aid personnel and the distribution of essential supplies. More than one million individuals experience unreliable access to water, an essential resource in a nation already grappling with significant water scarcity. The response of the international community has been impeded by insufficient funding, as significant aid initiatives confront the possibility of reductions owing to diminishing resources. The announcement by the WFP regarding the cessation of its primary assistance program in January 2024 highlights the critical nature of the funding crisis. In the absence of sufficient financial assistance, a significant number of Syrians face the imminent threat of losing access to vital resources such as food, healthcare, and other essential services. The newly established regime is required to collaborate closely with international organizations in order to secure funding and guarantee the ongoing implementation of humanitarian programs.
The collapse of the Assad regime has resulted in a governance void that presents considerable obstacles for the emerging transitional government. The absence of effective public services, encompassing education, healthcare, and law enforcement, has rendered communities susceptible to exploitation and social unrest. The reconstruction of these institutions represents a formidable undertaking that will necessitate substantial resources and the backing of the international community.
The initiatives undertaken by opposition factions, including Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), to establish governance reforms in territories under rebel control present a viable framework for tackling these issues. The emphasis placed by HTS leader Abu Mohammad al-Julani on public services and engagement with minority communities has contributed to the stabilization of certain regions; however, expanding these initiatives to a national scale presents a multifaceted challenge.
How the International Community Can Help?
The involvement of the international community in tackling the humanitarian crisis in Syria is of paramount importance. In light of the complexities arising from geopolitical tensions and divergent priorities, it is imperative that ongoing international support be maintained to mitigate the hardships faced by millions of Syrians. It is imperative that donor nations and organizations pledge their resources towards essential programs, especially those targeting food insecurity, healthcare, and the challenges of displacement. Enhancing assistance for Syrian refugees in neighbouring countries and promoting safe and voluntary repatriation are essential elements of a sustainable resolution.
The process of rebuilding infrastructure that has been compromised by conflict and natural disasters necessitates substantial investment and collaborative efforts on an international scale.
- Promotion of Political Stability: Fostering dialogue and reconciliation among Syrian factions is crucial for the establishment of a stable and inclusive government that can effectively address the challenges facing the country.
Conclusion
The fall of Damascus and the subsequent collapse of the Assad regime signify a pivotal moment in the Syrian conflict. Nonetheless, the humanitarian crisis continues to represent the most urgent challenge facing the new transitional government. Meeting the needs of 16.7 million individuals necessitates a thorough and collaborative approach that emphasizes food security, healthcare, displacement, and economic recovery. The path forward is likely to encounter numerous challenges; however, with the backing of the global community and a dedication to governance reforms, the emerging regime has the potential to initiate the reconstruction of Syria and mitigate the hardships faced by its populace. The humanitarian crisis represents not only a byproduct of the ongoing conflict but also a significant challenge to the new government’s capacity to govern and foster unity within a divided nation. The achievement of this objective will serve as the foundational element for Syria’s recovery and future stability.