Despite a slow start and tussles over the rule of law, a war next door and a newly formed liberal-democratic government are encouraging Polish ambitions of a leadership role in the bloc.
Standing alongside Germany’s Olaf Scholz and France’s Emmanuel Macron at a meeting of the Weimar Triangle in mid-March in Berlin, Poland’s new prime minister, Donald Tusk, spoke determinedly about the war in Ukraine, how to ensure continued US support and what to do in the event the US cannot deliver. Yet behind the words the message was clear: Poland is ready to assume a leading role in the EU at this critical juncture in European history.
After 20 years since joining the EU, Poland’s economy has moved decidedly towards convergence with its western peers, while standards of living in major Polish cities are comparable to those in the west. The sheer size of this country, the largest in the eastern part of the EU, has always implied Warsaw could potentially join a triumvirate of key EU players, balancing out Western European interests.
Yet it took a mix of historical and political circumstances to push Poland to the brink of this position: the war in Ukraine meant Poland has played a major role in mobilising and transporting military aid to Ukraine as well as in receiving refugees, while a new liberal-democratic government led by a high-profile politician with top experience in EU matters made Poland a much more credible partner.
An illustration of what Poland’s new role as a leader in Europe, particularly on UK matters, could look like in practice came on Tuesday, when British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak chose Warsaw to make a major announcement on increasing the UK’s defence spending to 2.5 per cent of GDP by 2030 and raising military financing for Ukraine this year by half a billion pounds.
“The talks held at my chancellery office, together with Mr Prime Minister and Mr Secretary General, are part of my mission of rebuilding – or even expanding – Poland’s role when it comes to security policy,” Tusk said at a press conference announcing Sunak’s visit to Warsaw.
Ready to lead?
For Wojciech Przybylski, editor-in-chief of Visegrad Insight, the potential for Poland “to punch above its weight” has been there for some time, given the size of the country and the dynamism of its economy.
“In fact, even at the time when Poland joined the EU in 2004, we were not doing that bad economically,” Przybylski recalls. “Investment was booming after a period of bad turbulence in the 1990s. Maybe the starting point was low, but the dynamism of the economy and prospects for growth had just started to improve.”
Moreover, the political analyst points out, even under the previous radical-right Law and Justice (PiS) government there were times when Poland “was at the centre of influence in the EU, but for all the wrong reasons” – a reference to situations when Poland, Hungary and sometimes even all four Visegrad Group countries joined forces to thwart EU policies.
Yet it took a change of government and the specific context provided by the war in Ukraine to bring the country closer to realising this potential. “There are moments in history when we are lucky to be able to realise our potential and moments when we aren’t,” Przybylski reflects. “After Brexit, Poland missed an opportunity to replace the UK as one of the bigger players in European politics. But this time around, with this new government brought to power on a massive pro-democratic surge, we may not lose the opportunity again.”
“It doesn’t mean that Germany and France are necessarily excited to have Poland play such a prominent role, but they have to accept it given the situation with the war,” he adds.
Blots on the landscape
As the 20-year anniversary approaches on May 1, multiple analyses published in Poland reflect on the prosperity brought by EU membership and how much progress the country has made over the last two decades.
Calculations by the Polish Economic Institute published as part of an anniversary report indicate that Poland’s GDP per capita after two decades of membership is higher by 40 per cent than it would have been otherwise.
Katarzyna Pelczynska-Nalecz, Poland’s minister of funds and regional development, wrote in an anniversary report, presented on April 17 at the Polish Press Agency in Warsaw: “In the last 20 years, Poland found itself among the group of member states experiencing the fastest pace of change – we reduced our distance from the average level of development of EU countries from 51.5 per cent of GDP per capita in 2004 to 80 per cent currently.”
The authors of the Polish Economic Institute analysis explain that one of the most important factors contributing to the economic development of the region was Central Europe becoming integral to EU supply chains. “That brought an influx of foreign investments, it led to the five-fold increase in the value of Polish exports and increased the level of advancement of those exports,” they wrote. “Integration into the EU turned Central Europe into an export centre.”
Nevertheless, most analysts are quick to point out that the position of the Polish economy on European supply chains remains lower than it might be, leaving the country in a relation of dependency to larger and stronger economies, like Germany’s, which also keeps wages lower than further west.
“Average wages in Poland in 2023 were still a third or a fourth the level of those in Western Europe and still lower than those in Southern Europe,” Gavin Rae, a sociologist at Warsaw’s Kozminski University, points out.
“And let’s not forget that Poland has one of the largest proportions of precarious labour contracts in the whole of the European bloc,” Rae adds. “That situation has not improved in significant ways in the last years and it is not likely to do so under the new Tusk government.”
Rae stresses that, in addition to factors like GDP growth or standards of living in the biggest cities, to judge how Poland is faring after two decades of the EU one also needs to consider the state of public services, such as health or education, at mortality rates during the COVID-19 pandemic (among the worst in the EU), and societal inequalities.
This point is also highlighted by the Polish Economic Institute report: “There is a need to equalise the level of development among various regions, especially when it comes to stimulating innovation and improving the quality of life and education.”
What the future holds
Anticipating too-rosy a future would also be naïve, analysts warn, especially in light of the war in Ukraine and another one brewing in the Middle East.
“The wars can result in totally unpredictable side effects,” Rae warns. “For example, we never predicted this kind of inflation we had in the last years even if, in hindsight, it seems obvious to have had such an effect, given the pandemic and the war and sanctions. But we didn’t see it coming.”
“And now we also have no idea how things will play out in Ukraine and also in the Middle East,” he adds.
In the short term, nobody doubts that the war in Ukraine will continue for some time. That, combined with the possibility of a return of Donald Trump to the White House and a US less inclined to fund Ukraine’s fightback, has boosted Tusk’s efforts to get Poland a seat at the EU leadership table.
Yet Poland’s economy and society at large, like those across Europe, remain highly vulnerable to the conflicts and their effects on economies, energy, the climate and population flows.