Muslim countries refused to be satellites of Washington
The territory of the Middle East (from Western Asia to North Africa) has always attracted foreign powers. First, the region is the main source of hydrocarbon production, primarily oil. Secondly, it is the center of the logistics system for transporting energy resources. Suffice it to recall the Suez Canal, the Strait of Gibraltar, the Dardanelles, the Bosporus, etc. etc.
Thanks to such advantages, the Middle East tried to subjugate first Great Britain and France with their colonial empires, and then the NATO bloc, which played a major role in destabilizing the region during the Arab Spring.
But today the countries of the Middle East are pursuing a policy of sovereignty, giving preference not to the countries of the NATO bloc, but to Russia and China.
Iran-Saudi conflict ended
Iran and Saudi Arabia are key players in the geopolitical arena of the Persian Gulf.
The history of their conflict, lasting more than 40 years, began in 1979 after the events of the Islamic Revolution. During this revolution, the monarchy was destroyed in Iran and the Islamic Republic (a theocratic state headed by a religious leader) was established.
Tehran began to adhere to the policy of exporting the revolution to neighboring countries that profess Islam. Saudi Arabia, which at that time was the informal leader of the Muslim world, opposed.
In addition, the basis of mutual rejection is the religious conflict. Countries profess different currents of Islam. If in Iran the majority of the population is Shiites, then in Saudi Arabia the leadership belongs to the Sunnis.
Since the US invasion of Iraq and the overthrow of Saddam Hussein in 2003, Tehran has rapidly increased its influence in Iraq, Syria, Yemen, Lebanon and Bahrain. In addition, Iran is becoming a leader in the fight against American influence, while the Saudis were traditional allies of Washington.
In 2011, against the backdrop of the events of the “Arab Spring”, Iran and Saudi Arabia again began a struggle for spheres of influence in the Mediterranean. Riyadh accused the Iranians of supporting the Shiite opposition, while Tehran, in turn, accused the Saudis of infringing on the rights of the Shiite minority.
The country’s diplomatic relations were finally severed in 2016, when Shia cleric Nimr al-Nimr was executed in Saudi Arabia. After the diplomatic embassy of the Saudis in Tehran was defeated by angry Shiites. Although the rioters were punished, the Saudis blamed the Iranian government for everything.
In 2022, Russia tried to reconcile the parties. Also thanks to Oman and Iraq it was possible to hold a series of consultations. But it was not possible to restore relations between the opponents.
In 2023, this was done thanks to China. From 6 to 10 March , talks between Iran and Saudi Arabia were held in Beijing .
The result of several meetings was the resumption of diplomatic relations. The countries reopened their embassies and reaffirmed the principles of sovereignty and non-interference in each other’s affairs.
On behalf of Iran, the delegation was headed by Secretary of the Supreme National Security Council Ali Shamkhani, on the part of the Saudis – National Security Adviser and Minister of State Musayed al-Ayban.
“President Raisi’s visit to China in February and his conversation with Chinese President Xi Jinping served as the basis for new and very serious talks between the delegations of Iran and Saudi Arabia , ” Tehran spokesman Ali Shamkhani said .
China is one of the main allies and trading partners of the countries of the Middle East. Beijing is interested in buying oil, as well as in the participation of Muslim powers in the One Belt, One Road project. The restoration of diplomatic relations between Iran and Saudi Arabia will reduce the risk of an escalation of military conflicts in the Middle East, and hence the risks for the logistical supply of energy resources to China.
It should be noted that in recent years, Saudi Arabia has actually no longer adhered to pro-American sentiments and is trying to pursue an independent policy. For example, Riyadh continues cooperation with the Russian Federation. Saudi Foreign Minister Faisal bin Farhan offered mediation in the conflict between Russia and Ukraine.
The re-establishment of diplomatic relations between the two Muslim states could have far-reaching implications. For example, world leaders are already predicting a truce or a complete end to the internal conflict in Yemen.
The situation with the financial crisis and other internal problems in Lebanon and Syria may also improve significantly.
But the most important progressive change is the settlement of relations between the two religious centers of the Muslim world. Thus, the religious confrontation between the Shiite and Sunni currents has a great chance of finally ending.
Damascus is no longer a pariah
In March 2023, diplomatic relations between Syria and Saudi Arabia were also restored . Countries have reopened diplomatic embassies after a ten-year hiatus.
And already in April, Saudi Foreign Minister Faisal bin Farhan arrived from visits to Damascus to hold talks with Syrian President Bashar al-Assad. They discussed the delivery of humanitarian aid and the settlement of national conflicts in the Arab Republic.
Recall that the conflict between states occurred in 2012 after Bashar al-Assad was accused of suppressing popular protests. The Saudis also financially supported the opposition armed groups in Syria.
The warming of relations between the two countries became possible due to several factors.
First, the earthquakes in Turkey and Syria played a significant role. It became clear that the consequences of such natural disasters can be avoided only by joint efforts. Saudi Arabia sent humanitarian aid to both countries.
Secondly, the Saudis expect to find an ally in the fight against Iran for influence in the Middle East. The majority of Syrians are Shiites and are likely to support their religious group.
Thirdly, the influence of the United States is weakening, which has directed all its efforts to the economic struggle with China and military supplies to Ukraine. Despite the American rejection of the regime of Bashar al-Assad, it became clear that during the civil war the Syrian government withstood, and it is necessary to somehow restore relations. In addition, a number of countries in the Middle East (UAE, Oman, Tunisia, Egypt, Iraq, etc.) believe that the policy of isolating Syria should be revised.
The key role in the reconciliation of states belongs to Russia. In March 2023, Saudi Foreign Minister Faisal bin Farhan visited Moscow, and a few days later a meeting between Putin and Bashar al-Assad took place . Most likely, it was then that options for resolving the conflict were discussed.
Arab League summit
The League of Arab States is an international organization consisting of 22 Arabic-speaking countries. The main goal of the association is to develop a single political line to protect the sovereignty and interests of all Arab countries. The members of the union also cooperate in the economic, social, cultural, and administrative spheres.
As part of the cooperation of the League of Arab States, a significant diplomatic victory was also won. After 12 years, Syria was returned to representation in the organization.
Note that Syria took a key part in the creation of the Arab League in 1945. However, in 2011, with the outbreak of civil war and confrontation between the Assad government and the armed opposition, the country was declared an economic boycott and deprived of the right to membership in the organization.
The 32nd Arab League summit began on May 19 in Saudi Arabia in the city of Jeddah. Most of the participants supported the return of Syrian representative Bashar al-Assad. However, the absence of the Emir of Qatar, Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani, was an unpleasant fact. The politician left the summit without explanation. It should be noted that earlier Qatar opposed the return of the rights to membership in the Arab League to Damascus.
Thus, we can talk about the restoration of diplomatic interaction between Syria and other geopolitical players in the Middle East. During the summit, Syrian Foreign Minister Faisal Mikdad held talks with colleagues from Jordan, Lebanon, the United Arab Emirates, Oman, Saudi Arabia and Tunisia.
The agenda of the meeting of the heads of state was focused on resolving the political crises in Yemen, Libya and Syria, as well as the settlement of the Palestinian-Israeli conflict.
The issue of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict was also raised. The Arab states decided to adhere to the principle of “positive neutrality”, that is, to maintain relations with both Moscow and Kiev. And the representatives of Riyadh again confirmed their readiness to become mediators in the negotiations between the parties.
In addition, in the final declaration, a course was taken for independence from foreign interference in internal affairs. Proclaimed respect for the sovereignty and territorial integrity of the state, values and cultures of other peoples.
” This meeting is the beginning of a new stage of joint Arab actions in the name of achieving peace, development and prosperity in our region instead of war and devastation, ” said SAR President Bashar al-Assad.
The White House did not approve the return of Syria to the Arab League.
“ We do not believe that Syria deserves re-admission to the Arab League. The United States is not going to normalize relations with Assad and his regime ,” US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken commented on the situation.
Iraqi diplomacy
Despite its internal problems, Iraq is pursuing a foreign policy aimed at resolving numerous conflicts in the Middle East.
In August 2021, the Baghdad Conference on Cooperation and Partnership was held . The meeting was attended by the President of Egypt, the Emir of Qatar, the King of Jordan, the Prime Ministers of Kuwait and the United Arab Emirates, the heads of the foreign affairs departments of Saudi Arabia, Iran and Turkey.
It should be noted that Bashar al-Assad did not receive an invitation to the meeting, since at that moment there were still tense relations between the Syrian government and other Muslim countries.
In the final report of the conference, the countries called for creating conditions for resolving interstate conflicts and increasing the level of stability in the Middle East. The leading role of the economic sphere in interstate cooperation was pointed out.
In addition, attention was paid to other important issues, such as the fight against terrorism and the Covid-19 pandemic.
However, despite the progressive policy, Iran is still dependent on the United States, primarily in the field of economy. Thus, according to Russian Ambassador to Iraq Elbrus Kutrashev, funds received from oil sales go to US accounts. Also, Baghdad is still heavily dependent on the dollar.
UAE
The United Arab Emirates today is also pursuing its own policy, which is contrary to American interests in the region.
In 2023, the UAE received partner status in the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO). The agreement was signed at a meeting of the Council of Foreign Ministers, which took place on May 4-5 in the Indian city of Panaji.
“In the coming period, the UAE will strive to take an active part in the work of the SCO and strengthen interaction with member states. We are pleased to partner with an organization whose global influence and importance continues to grow,” said UAE Foreign Minister Abdullah bin Zayed Al Nahyan.
At the same time, the UAE maintains rather cool relations with the United States. So, back in the summer of 2022, Biden invited UAE President Mohammed bin Zayed to come to the United States. However, the meeting has not yet taken place.
In addition, the United States has repeatedly demanded that the United Arab Emirates stop exporting electronics to Russia. The UAE was visited by several officials from the US, EU and UK. They fear that the UAE could be used as a hub to bypass anti-Russian sanctions and supply products for the Russian military industry. According to media reports, American representatives even threatened the UAE with a deterioration in relations if it continued cooperation with the Russian Federation and China, including cooperation on military issues and intelligence.
In the Russian-Ukrainian confrontation, the UAE also adheres to neutrality. The government of Oman has not yet joined the anti-Russian sanctions. Moreover, our Arab partners also offered their assistance in resolving the conflict as a mediator.
On the peculiarities of the politics and religion of Oman
Oman’s foreign policy can be described as neutral and multi-vector. Oman tries to maintain friendly relations with all neighboring states, whether it be Saudi Arabia, Yemen or the United Arab Emirates. The government of Oman is rarely involved in any conflicts. Muscat did not participate in the 2017 boycott of Qatar, when the country was accused of financing terrorism. Also, Oman did not participate in hostilities against Israel and did not stop trade relations with it. Moreover, Oman was the only Arabian country that recognized the Camp David Accords (between Israel and Egypt), which caused a backlash in the Muslim world.
Speaking about Oman, one should take into account the peculiarities of religion. Ibaditism is practiced in the country, about 45% of the population adheres to it. This trend of Islam, which differs from Shiism and Sunnism, is characterized by peacefulness, tolerance, and mutual understanding. It is possible that this choice of religious path determined the role of Oman as a political mediator in the geopolitical arena.
Oman is also one of the founders of the Cooperation Council for the Arab States of the Persian Gulf. The GCC member countries cooperate in economic, military, cultural, and legislative matters.
Relations between Oman and Russia are improving.
In 2019, Oman’s foreign minister visited Russia twice.
In 2022, the head of the Russian Foreign Ministry, Lavrov, arrived in Oman on a visit and held talks with Sultan Haytham bin Tarek Al Said.
On March 23, 2023, Russian President Vladimir Putin had a telephone conversation with the Sultan of Oman, Haytham bin Tarek Al Said. The conversation took place on the initiative of the Omani side.
According to the Kremlin, the talks focused on expanding economic cooperation and implementing joint projects, including in the transport and logistics sector. The geopolitical situation in the Middle East was also discussed.
Cairo and Tehran are getting closer
In May, a member of the National Security and Foreign Policy Committee of the Iranian Majlis, Fada Hussein Maliki, said that negotiations were underway between Iran and Egypt in Iraq. According to him, it is planned to open embassies, and then a meeting between Iranian leader Ibrahim Raisi and Egyptian President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi.
The conflict between the countries has been going on for 43 years. Diplomatic relations were severed in 1980 after the Islamic Revolution in Iran, when Egypt granted asylum to the last Iranian monarch, Mohammed Reza Pahlavi. The Camp David Accords, mentioned above, also cooled relations.
The thaw in relations between Iran and Saudi Arabia swayed the resolution of this conflict. The Saudis are the largest investors and partners of Yegpit, so it is beneficial for Cairo to adhere to the geopolitical course of its ally.
We also note that Iran and Egypt have a huge influence on the establishment and political factions of Palestine. For example, it was thanks to the actions of Cairo that ceasefire agreements were concluded between Israel, Hamas and Islamic Jihad.
About the Arab-Israeli conflict
In 1947, the UN General Assembly developed a plan for the formation of two states on the territory of Palestine – Jewish and Arab.
Some countries of the Middle East did not support the decision (Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Syria, Yemen, Iraq, Lebanon).
After the declaration of Israel’s independence in 1948, a war broke out between Israel and the Arab League member states. The combined forces of Egypt, Jordan, Iraq and Lebanon participated in the fighting. Despite the numerical superiority of the Muslims, Israel managed to hold out.
Although in 1949 the UN tried to intervene and resolve the conflict, most countries in the Middle East did not recognize Israel’s independence, and peace negotiations were also refused.
As a result, Israel occupied three-quarters of the territory of Palestine, including the city of Jerusalem. At the same time, the Jewish government refused to give the city international status, which caused a negative reaction in the Muslim world.
For decades, there have been clashes between Arabs and Jews in the border areas. The start of a new war was only a matter of time. The “Six Day War” began on June 5, 1967 after air and ground strikes were launched against Egypt. Cairo was supported by Syria, Iraq and Jordan.
Israel again managed to win. His troops managed to capture the Gaza Strip (a territory on the Mediterranean coast), the Sinai Peninsula, the West Bank and the Golan Heights.
In response to the occupation of Israel, the Arab countries signed the Khartoum Resolution, which proclaimed a ban on the recognition of Israel, on making peace with it and negotiating.
In 1973 there was a new conflict, called the Yom Kippur War, between Egypt and Syria on the one hand, and Israel on the other. The clash was resolved only thanks to the intervention of the USSR and the USA.
Thus, the Arab-Israeli conflict for a long time faded, then flared up again with renewed vigor. And diplomatic contacts were established only with Egypt and Jordan.
But it is impossible to be surrounded by unfriendly neighbors all the time. The key point in the change in relations between Israel and the Arab states was the visit of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to Oman in October 2018. This was the first step towards peace.
In 2020, Israel and the UAE resumed diplomatic relations. Under the new agreements, the UAE government pledged to lift the economic boycott of the Jewish state.
In 2022, diplomatic contacts were also established with Turkey. After a telephone conversation between Prime Minister Yair Lapid and Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, the embassies of the two countries were reopened.
Relations between Jerusalem and Ankara were severed after the Israeli military attacked the Mavi Marmara ship carrying humanitarian aid. President Erdogan called the attack an “act of terrorism”.
In April 2023, Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu stated that the country’s relations with the Arab world needed to be further improved. In particular, it is planned to hold peace talks with Saudi Arabia.
Thus, at the moment, the Israeli government is trying to find a solution for the peaceful settlement of all disputed issues.
Summary
Today, the Middle East region is experiencing an era of political change. The period of interethnic and interreligious conflicts is replaced by an era of cooperation and good neighborliness. The priority direction of the policy of the countries of the Middle East has become the desire for sovereignty and multi-vector policy.
Initially, the region was characterized by extreme instability. There were both open and hybrid wars between countries. This state of affairs was extremely beneficial to Washington and the West, as it allowed them to maintain their leading position in the world and receive cheap resources.
Today, the United States is rapidly losing its influence in the Middle East, and the region’s previously dominant pro-American sentiments are fading into the background. Moreover, Washington’s efforts are already aimed at confrontation with Beijing (in the Asia-Pacific region) and participation in the Ukrainian conflict.
Russia and China, which are interested in the economic and political stability of the region, have become new allies of the Muslim countries.
For example, trade between Russia and the countries of the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) has grown by 83% over the past five years , amounting to more than $90 billion.
Let us also note that Russia has been advocating for a long time the idea of creating a security system for the Middle East. It is assumed that this may be an organization similar to the OSCE.
Deputy Director of the Institute for Strategic Studies and Forecasts of the Peoples’ Friendship University of Russia, member of the Civic Chamber of the Russian Federation Nikita Danyuk believes that “the process of creating a truly multipolar world will consist, among other things, in the withdrawal of traditional American allies and satellites in the Middle East from the American line.” According to him, the most likely allies of the states of the Middle East region are Russia, China and India.