Dozens of Turkish troops have been killed in Syrian government air raids backed by Russia. Turkey has intensified its military operations, firing down two Syrian fighter jets as well as launching several ground attacks. It marks a dramatic escalation in the conflict between Turkey and Russian-backed forces in Syria.
The 33 deaths and 60 wounded resulting from the attack on February 27 in the province of Idlib comes as Syrian government forces, backed by Russian air power, attempt to seize the last remaining territory held by opposition forces, backed by Turkey. It was the largest death toll for Turkey in a single day since it first intervened in Syria in 2016.
Russia denied involvement in the attack, and has stated that Turkish troops should not have been in the area where counter-terror operations were underway. Moscow has also blamed Turkey for failing to inform it about the presence of its troops in the Idlib region. Despite Russia’s role in the attack, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan blamed the Assad regime in Damascus for the casualties, a move that could cause a debacle for Turkey.
Erdogan started cozying up with Russia in an attempt to counter-balance Turkey’s relationship with the West and pursue an autonomous foreign policy. He purchased the advanced Russian S-400 air defence system despite US threats of retaliation. This was not simply a political choice but a hard power turn in Erdogan’s international orientation.
However, Russia’s attack has compromised Erdogan’s attempt to portray Turkey as a regional power. In addition, Arab countries have decided to follow the US policy in Syria and have left Erdogan out in the cold.
In this situation, Turkey has called for help from its allies in NATO, a relationship that has become increasingly troubled since Erdogan became president. Erdogan’s miscalculations could mark the end of his foreign policy adventurism and has the potential to create another refugee crisis in Europe.
After Turkey requested an immediate meeting for consultation over the situation in Syria, NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg announced a meeting for Article 4 consultations. Under Article 4, any NATO ally can request consultations whenever their territorial integrity or security is threatened.
Following the meeting, Stoltenberg merely offered condolences and urged Russia and Syria to stop its operations. “I call on them to stop their offensive. To respect international law. And to back UN efforts for a peaceful solution,” he said during a press conference.
NATO’s answer was expected, as the alliance is not interested in risking a direct military confrontation with Russia. Vladimir Putin is a staunch supporter of the Assad regime, so any confrontation with Assad could translate into direct confrontation with Russia.
Despite NATO calls to stop military operations in Idlib, Turkey has intensified its operations by launching a major offensive, Operation Spring Shield, attacking several Syrian army positions and shooting down two Syrian fighter jets.
This offensive was then halted as a result of a ceasefire agreement forged in Moscow between Erdogan and his Russian counterpart.
Frustrated with the lack of help from the West, Turkey has stated that it will no longer honour its commitments to prevent migrants from reaching the EU external border in Greece and Bulgaria. Turkey hosts around 3.6 million Syrian refugees.
In 2016, Turkey and the European Union signed a deal to stop Syrian refugees from entering the EU in exchange for funding. The deal also included a more relaxed visa procedure for Turkish citizens who want to travel to Europe and reassurement about Turkey’s EU integration talks.
The EU-Turkey deal was heavily criticized by human rights organisations. Amnesty International was particularly vocal, accusing the EU of turning its back on a global refugee crisis and calling the deal a “historic blow to rights.”
President Erdogan on Monday vowed to keep the doors open for migrants heading for Europe, as he upped pressure on Western countries to give Turkey more support over the Syrian conflict.
As Turkey pressures the EU over the Idlib situation, dramatic footage of the Greek shores has shown migrants trying to cross over the Greek border by sea and land.
The 2015 refugee crisis, when over a million refugees entered the EU, produced long lasting consequences in Europe, fuelling a wave of right-wing extremism and illiberalism. A repeat of the 2015 crisis could have disastrous consequences for a fractured Europe that is still dealing with many other geo-strategic obstacles such as Brexit, asylum-seekers, borders and security inter alia.
The European Commission released a statement in 2019 noting that last year the number of irregular arrivals of refugees entering Greece had fallen by 97 per cent. The number of lives lost at sea had also decreased substantially since the 2016 EU-Turkey refugee deal.
The Balkans are not immune to this problem. Syrian refugees usually use Balkan routes to reach Western Europe, which is highly problematic, especially for Serbia, Bulgaria and Hungary. These small countries do not have the capacity to manage millions of refugees crossing their territory.
Erdogan’s miscalculations in Syria are likely to create major obstacles for Turkey itself, the Middle East and Europe. While more refugees are pouring in, a humanitarian catastrophe is unfolding on the shores of the Balkans.