Turkey’s Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu’s visit to the United States this week has witnessed an ironic twist, with Turkey and the United States reversing their positions over the NATO enlargement and Turkey’s bid for new F-16 fighter jets.
Ahead of the NATO summit in June, during which Sweden and Finland were formally invited to the alliance after they abandoned their historical military non-alignment policy, it was Turkey who was trying to turn the potential expansion into a bargaining chip in its negotiations with the United States. Back then, President Recep Tayyip Erdogan had called on the countries “who are vigorously working for their accession” to “do what is necessary.” Washington, in turn, was circumspect, seeking to keep apples and oranges separate. US Secretary of State Antony Blinken at the time stressed that potential F-16 sales to Turkey was “separate” from Ankara’s demands over the Nordic enlargement.
Now they have reversed the roles.
US Ambassador to Ankara Jeff Flake maintained Thursday that there was no connection between the F-16 sale and the NATO expansion, but not without adding, “The US Congress has invested a great deal in this war, to aid Ukraine in fighting back Russian aggression, both monetarily and leading this coalition. They see this as very important.”
A similar message was delivered to the Turkish side during the Cavusoglu-Blinken meeting on Wednesday, the top Turkish diplomat confirmed after his talks. Cavusoglu told reporters that the American side told them that Turkey’s ratification of the NATO enlargement “would have a positive impact on Congress” of which approval is required for the F-16 sale to Turkey.
Yet, this time, the country which is trying to keep the two issues separate is Turkey, as Nazlan Ertan reported this week. “The two issues are separate and are running their own course,” Cavusoglu said after his meeting with Blinken, adding that Turkey’s ratification of the Nordic accession has never been “officially presented” as a precondition for the sale.
The Turkish bid to buy new F-16s and upgrade kits from the United States faces an uphill battle in the Congress, as Elizabeth Hagedorn reported. “Support for Turkey has waned on Capitol Hill, including over its deepening ties to Russia, continued provocations against Greece and multiple military campaigns against US-backed Kurdish forces in northeast Syria,” she observed. The potential $20 billion dollar sale is in the informal review period, Hagedorn noted.
“Congress will also be handling a Greek request to buy at least 30 new F-35s — the same aircraft Turkey helped develop and had planned to acquire up to 100 to renew its air force,” Andrew Wilks reported on Tuesday, reminding us that Cavusoglu’s trip was coming amid heightened tensions between Ankara and Athens
As for the pending NATO expansion, a potential Turkish ratification of the enlargement ahead of crucial presidential and parliamentary polls seems like a tall prospect unless Erdogan secures major concessions from Sweden that can boost his electoral chances.
While Ankara signaled it was ready to give a nod to the Finnish bid, it has been demanding Stockholm to fully address its security concerns before ratifying the Swedish accession, a process that requires ratification by all 30 members of the alliance.
Speaking to a group of reporters over the weekend, Erdogan’s top foreign policy adviser Ibrahim Kalin said Sweden had asked for some six months to fulfill Turkey’s demands.
“The next step in the volatile Ankara-Stockholm ties will be the visit of Swedish Defense Minister Pal Jonson to Ankara at the invitation of his Turkish counterpart Hulusi Akar next week,” Ertan reported.
On the regional front, Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) commander Mazlum Kobane told Amberin Zaman that he expects a Turkish attack in February. “We expect an attack in February. The town of Kobani is a likely target because of its symbolic meaning for Kurds world over. Turkey is heading for elections,” he said during the exclusive interview.
In response to a question over the Russian-mediated high-level talks between Ankara and Damascus, Kobane said he did not believe that the Russian attempts could succeed.
In his latest analysis, Fehim Tastekin listed the obstacles and motivating factors awaiting the “fledgling Turkish-Syrian dialogue.” Both the Syrian government and Turkey “need to moderate their positions to avoid a collision in their quest for normalization,” he opined.
Iran, meanwhile, has been “very pleased” with “the transformation” in the ties between Ankara and Damascus, Iran’s Foreign Minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian said in Ankara on Tuesday, as I reported here. His remarks came amid speculations that Tehran was upset over the rapprochement between Turkey and the Syrian government.
The rapprochement has also “left many refugees stunned,” as Joshua Levkowitz put it. The refugees have become a key topic” ahead of Turkey’s elections, he reported.
Meanwhile, Turkey’s some 65 million electorate will head to polls in May instead of June. As Ertan reported, Erdogan on Wednesday pointed to May 14 for the elections, “ending months of speculation on the timeline for snap polls.”
“While the country’s dual polls were formally scheduled for June 18, Ankara’s political and diplomatic circles have been hedging bets on early election dates, weighing in various components of the electoral equation,” she explained.
Erdogan’s announcement fanned the flames of an ongoing constitutional debate on whether Erdogan could run in the elections.
Several opposition parties and government critics maintain that Erdogan’s candidacy would be unconstitutional as Turkey’s constitution does not allow a person to be elected to the presidency more than twice. Erdogan’s government and their allies, in turn, argue that if he gets elected, it will be Erdogan’s second term in the office under the executive presidency system to which the country transitioned in 2018 and that his tenure at the office between 2014 and 2018 under the parliamentary system should not be taken into account.
The ball is now on the main-opposition Republican People’s Party-led opposition bloc’s court to agree on a candidate who will run against Erdogan. The alliance, which is comprised of six parties, previously said that they would announce their candidate once the election date is set.