Conflict Trends Update

IRAN

In a 30-2 vote (with three abstentions), the International Atomic Energy Agency’s (IAEA) Board of Governors on Wednesday passed a resolution censuring Iran’s lack of cooperation in answering agency safeguards concerns on activities at undeclared sites.

Ahead of the vote, Iran vowed to respond harshly and set about installing advanced centrifuges and removing two cameras. On Thursday, it removed 27 IAEA cameras. Crisis Group expert Ali Vaez says the ramping up of nuclear activity and dialling down of international oversight underscores the urgency in reviving the 2015 nuclear deal, negotiations around which have stalled in recent months.

YEMEN

The government and the Huthis on 2 June extended a UN-mediated truce for two months just hours before the deal’s expiration. The ceasefire, which has been in place since 2 April, has led to a 50 per cent drop in civilian casualties. Crisis Group expert Veena Ali-Khan says while the truce extension is a crucial step toward the sustained reduction of violence, it does not necessarily bring both parties closer to a permanent deal to end the war. Some provisions – such as reopening the roads in and around Taiz, a government-held city besieged by Huthis where the situation remains volatile – are unfulfilled. Without progress in Taiz, the truce will remain fragile and may fail to kickstart talks toward a more formal ceasefire and political transition.