Bottom lines up front
On balance, the best long-term outcome for Africa is likely one in which China accepts the cost of reform.
Demand for minerals will grow about 5 percent per year under all scenarios but only a reform scenario sees Chinese demand for African manufactures grow.
The Islamic State is increasingly pivoting its operations toward Africa, where it maintains the capacity to coordinate violence across a broad area, generate financial resources, and expand its recruitment base. Over two-thirds of the Islamic State’s global activity in the first half of 2025 was recorded in Africa (see graph below). This pivot to Africa comes as the group’s propaganda also focuses more and more on its operations in Africa, with its affiliates gaining influence and prestige in the global IS network. This surge in activity raises urgent questions about the Islamic State’s capacity for violence in Africa, its strategies, and the threat it poses to regional governments and the world.
Nigeria’s former Minister for Foreign Affairs, Bolaji Akinyemi, has said that Russia has a hand in the Burkina Faso, Niger Republic, and Mali’s sudden announcement of departure from the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS), as Russia is seeking to weaken ‘western influence’ in Africa.
In 1918, V.I. Lenin renamed the Bolshevik Party the Russian Communist Party. Western scholars and policymakers soon began studying communism and the threat it posed to free nations.
In 1920, the German Workers’ Party adopted a new name: the National Socialist German Workers’ Party, better known as the Nazi Party. Western scholars and policymakers soon began studying Nazism and the threat it posed to free nations.
As news of more mass atrocities committed by the United Arab Emirates-backed Rapid Support Forces (RSF) circulates, the Islamic State has again called for jihad in Sudan. In this week’s Al Naba newsletter, the global jihadist organization made its second call to arms for Sudan this year, while also encouraging foreign fighters to migrate to the country.
A well-armed jihadist group affiliated with al Qaeda is closing in on Bamako, the capital of Mali. The country’s military junta and their Russian partners are struggling to counter the jihadis, who now hold sway in many parts of the huge Sahelian country.
Fuel is running short in Bamako as militants belonging to a group called Jama’at Nusrat al-Islam al-Muslimin (JNIM) cut roads to the capital, attack military patrols and ambush tanker trucks.