Africa

Ethiopia Prepares for War: Africa File Special Edition

Key Takeaway: The Ethiopian federal government will likely launch an offensive against the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) within the next month to neutralize the TPLF and its role in an emerging, loose anti-Ethiopian federal government coalition consisting of Eritrea, the TPLF, and other Amhara and Oromo ethno-nationalist militias. A conflict in Tigray would likely increase ongoing proxy competition between the Ethiopian federal government and the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) and heighten the risk of a broader Ethiopia-Eritrea conflict, which would likely draw in Egypt, the United Arab Emirates, Israel, and potentially Saudi Arabia.

Libye : l’ONU décrit une machine d’exploitation des migrants

« J’aurais préféré mourir ». Détenue pendant plus de six semaines dans une maison de traite à Tobrouk, dans l’est de la Libye, une femme érythréenne raconte avoir été violée à plusieurs reprises, avant d’être libérée après le paiement d’une rançon par sa famille.

Son témoignage figure parmi près d’une centaine de récits recueillis par l’ONU, qui décrivent un système d’exploitation d’une brutalité persistante contre migrants, réfugiés et demandeurs d’asile dans le pays.

The growing Saudi-UAE power struggle in the Horn of Africa

The rift between Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) has erupted beyond subtle divergences into a more overt and consequential rivalry.

While it started with an emerging proxy war over southern Yemen, it has now shifted to the Horn of Africa. But while efforts to smooth their differences have recently pointed to a quiet compromise, their underlying competition may take longer to dissipate.

Turkiye’s F-16 Deployment To Somalia Might Not Only Be For Protecting Its Investments

It’s plausible that this is part of Turkiye’s preparations for a campaign against Somaliland carried out under the banner of the nascent “Islamic NATO” that’s rapidly forming around Saudi Arabia.

The Middle East Eye reported that Turkiye’s deployment of three F-16s to Mogadishu “aims to protect Turkish energy and space port investments”. They also cited an official Turkish statement reaffirming Somalia’s territorial integrity amidst Israel’s recognition of Somaliland and pledging support in the fight against terrorism in a hint that it plans to play a greater role in such missions there. The outlet added that Turkiye already has armed drones and attack helicopters in Mogadishu too.

La Corne de l’Afrique : nouvelle terre de bataille d’influence entre les monarchies du Golfe

La Corne de l’Afrique s’impose comme l’un des nouveaux “terrain d’affrontement” de la compétition stratégique entre Émirats arabes unis, Arabie saoudite, Israël et puissances régionales. Une lutte d’influence qui fragilise des États déjà instables et fait planer le risque d’un conflit élargi en mer Rouge.

Composée de l’Éthiopie, de la Somalie, du Somaliland, de Djibouti et de l’Érythrée, voisine du Soudan, la Corne constitue la pointe orientale du continent africain, face à la mer Rouge qui la sépare du monde arabe.

Execution of Saif al-Islam Gaddafi upends Libya’s fragile power balance

The death of the ICC-wanted heir removes a major obstacle to the country’s stalled elections, even as his supporters decry a ‘treacherous’ end for the man who once promised reform – and later, ‘rivers of blood’.

Saif al-Islam Gaddafi, the son of Libya’s late longtime ruler, Muammar Gaddafi, was killed Tuesday by gunmen who stormed his home in the western city of Zintan, his French lawyer Marcel Ceccaldi told AFP.

Al Qaeda in the Indian Subcontinent: Almost Forgotten

Introduction
The rise of the Islamic State of Iraq and al Sham (ISIS) to the forefront of the global jihadist movement challenges al Qaeda’s prominence and influence. The ISIS counter-state that does away with the Iraq-Syria border, as well as its growing presence in such places as Libya, the Sinai, and Afghanistan, are proof of the group’s power and the effectiveness of its strategy. The leader of ISIS, Abu Bakr al Baghdadi, described al Qaeda’s leadership as individuals who have become misguided and who have misled the global jihadist movement.[1] Baghdadi demands allegiance from all Muslims and claims the title, emir al mumineen, commander of the faithful, which was held for decades by Taliban leader Mullah Omar. ISIS’s growth has taken its toll on the al Qaeda network. Groups that had once been associated with al Qaeda have splintered, declaring their loyalty to Baghdadi. Al Qaeda’s name no longer carries the same recruitment power it once did.

How Israel’s Somaliland gambit will reshape Red Sea geopolitics

Late last year, Israel broke new diplomatic ground by becoming the first country to formally recognise the independence of Somaliland, a self-declared republic existing within Somalia’s internationally recognised territory.

Perched along the southern coast of the Gulf of Aden, extremely close to the strategically vital Bab al-Mandab strait, Somaliland has spent more than three decades seeking international legitimacy after declaring independence in 1991.