Four scenarios for geopolitics after the Iran war

After more than a month of war and amid an uneasy cease-fire, Iran announced Friday that it would reopen the Strait of Hormuz for ships traveling a pre-approved route, while President Donald Trump vowed to continue a US blockade on Iranian ships. Both sides are still negotiating a deal to bring the conflict to a close.

Turkey Expands Influence in Africa: Africa File, April 16, 2026

Key Takeaway:

Turkey. Turkey has recently advanced economic and security ties with Niger and Somalia, viewing both countries as its African anchor states through which it can further its strategic interests in Africa. These partnerships aim to address several domestic concerns, such as patronage and energy security, and bolster Turkey’s international standing vis-à-vis global competitors.
Assessment:

Théocratie vs démocratie

Introduction
Cette analyse propose une lecture comparative de deux discours politiques, en se concentrant sur leur structure et leur cohérence interne.

C’est dans cette perspective que s’inscrit cette lecture : non pour juger la vérité des propos, mais pour en examiner la cohérence interne – leur capacité à s’organiser, à se soutenir et à produire un ensemble intelligible.

Syria will stay out of Iran conflict unless it faces aggression, president says

Syrian President Ahmed al-Sharaa said on Tuesday that his country will ​stay out of the U.S.-Israeli war against Iran unless Syria is subject to ‌aggression and has no diplomatic solutions.

“Unless Syria is targeted by any party, Syria will remain outside any conflict,” the Syrian president said at an event hosted ​by think tank Chatham House in London, Reuters reported.

From Oslo to annexation: Israel cements control of the West Bank

Israel’s cabinet on Sunday approved a process to restart land registration in the occupied West Bank for the first time since 1967, allowing the state to claim land from Palestinians unable to prove ownership.

A week earlier, on 8 February, the cabinet had ratified new measures extending the Israeli state’s administrative, legal, and enforcement authority across large areas of the West Bank that are currently under Palestinian Authority (PA) administration.

Oil Wars: Speeding The Transition to Renewable Energy

One simple observation since the US-Israel attack on Iran on February 28 is that solar panel prices have not risen, staying at around $300 for an off-the-shelf, 400-watt commercial panel (7 cents/W for an industrial solar cell). But oil prices have risen, reaching $116 per barrel in the first week of hostilities, a 65% increase from the pre-war mark of $70/barrel, raising energy prices for everyone including American consumers at the pump.

‘Harakat Ashab al-Yamin al-Islamiya’ and Claimed Attacks on Jewish Targets in Europe

One of the wider consequences of the U.S. and Israeli war against Iran has been a rise in reported attacks on perceived ‘Zionist’ and ‘American’ targets in Europe. These attacks- spanning from Greece to Britain- have been claimed on social media by a group called Harakat Ashab al-Yamin al-Islamiya (‘Islamic Movement of the People of the Right’). The concept of ‘Ashab al-Yamin’ (‘People of the Right’) is ultimately derived from the Qur’an and refers to the believers who will go to Paradise.

Iran’s Mystery Gift to Trump

I think the picture sums it up… Iran is not going to negotiate with the Trump administration on Trump’s terms. Iran has set its terms and will not deviate from those. Here is a synthesis of the key demands from recent Iranian statements and reporting: