Month: May 2024

An “America First” World

What Trump’s Return Might Mean for Global Order

What would become of the world if the United States became a normal great power? This isn’t to ask what would happen if the United States retreated into outright isolationism. It’s simply to ask what would happen if the country behaved in the same narrowly self-interested, frequently exploitive way as many great powers throughout history—if it rejected the idea that it has a special responsibility to shape a liberal order that benefits the wider world. That would be an epic departure from 80 years of American strategy. But it’s not an outlandish prospect anymore.

The urgency of European strategic autonomy is more pronounced than ever

With Russia pressing from the east and Trump polling well in the west, the EU needs a dramatic increase in its defense capabilities.

European strategic autonomy, strategic independence, and emancipation—these concepts have been ambiguously defined and, consequently, unconvincingly operationalized since they became buzzwords after the publication of the 2016 EU Global Strategy. While the Trump presidency may have awoken Europe to the transatlantic partnership’s fragility, particularly as the U.S. under different administrations seems keen to redefine its global leadership, the current turbulent European security landscape renders the EU’s ability to defend itself more relevant and challenging than ever. Greater strategic autonomy will require rapid defense integration among EU member states, an emphasis on understanding the perceptions and requirements of its Central and Eastern member states, and a commitment to a strong European pillar in the NATO structure that can at least maintain a first line of defense in case of strained U.S. capabilities.

Sadrist Return Might Upend Iraqi Politics and Regional Orientation

The popular Shia cleric Moqtada Al Sadr is preparing to return his movement to Iraq’s intra-Shia and broader political competition, potentially upending Iran’s influence in Iraq.

Outmaneuvered by pro-Iranian Shia rivals in 2021-2022, Sadr’s movement commands the loyalty of many Iraqi Shias who want political and economic reform.

Sadr’s willingness and ability to mobilize mass demonstrations could produce short-term instability, but his return might ultimately curb the influence exerted by Iran-backed militia commanders.

Sadr agrees with the current government on the need to balance Iraq’s relations with Washington and Tehran, but he is ideologically opposed to many U.S. interests and allies.

The Risks Of Russia’s Nuclear Posturing – Analysis

The war between Russia and Ukraine has entered its second year and there is no end in sight. Earlier this month, in a concerning escalation, Russia announced that it plans to hold drills simulating the use of tactical nuclear weapons along the border with Ukraine. Earlier in March, Russia had said that it would station nuclear weapons in Belarus. Such nuclear posturing in the middle of a war is worrying.

Antony Blinken Is Playing A Dangerous Game With Ukraine – OpEd

On April 4, speaking at a NATO Summit, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken stated that “Ukraine will become a member of NATO. Our purpose at the summit is to help build a bridge to that membership.” This is an exceedingly dangerous statement.This latest statement continues the trend of making promises to Ukraine that it may one day become a member of NATO without offering a concrete timeline. This is the worst of all possible worlds: such implicit promises provoke Russia, which has stated on multiple occasions that the prospect of NATO membership for Ukraine is a red line, while doing nothing to enhance Ukraine’s security.

The Free World: An Alarming Status Report

It seems urgent for the long-term survival of the United States and the Free World – where people enjoy unprecedented freedom of speech, property rights, economic opportunity, religious freedom and other civil liberties – not to accept assaults on these hard-won achievements either at home or abroad.

A New Iron Curtain Is Being Built From The Arctic To Central Europe

The new Iron Curtain that’s descending upon Western Eurasia from the Arctic (Finland) to Central Europe (Poland) via the Baltics is for psychological purposes to scare Europeans into doing whatever their leaders demand on false security-related pretexts so that the US can continue dividing-and-ruling them.

It’s Not Just Ideology: Why The US Is Hard-Wired To Be Hostile To Autocratic Regimes – OpEd

The U.S. was born out of ideas and the geopolitical schemes of competing maritime empires, forging a foreign policy approach that dominates its foreign relations today.

Considering whether modern states are empires tells us almost nothing useful about either modern states or empires. A better question is what policies and structures pioneered by empires are still employed by states today, and how.

Ukraine Needs More Than Crisis Management

Its Security Depends on Long-Term Commitments From the West

The U.S. Congress’s approval last month of a $61 billion aid package for Ukraine came not a minute too soon. Ammunition shortages resulting from Washington’s months-long dysfunction have eroded Ukrainian frontline positions and left cities and critical infrastructure exposed to missile and drone barrages. Top military and intelligence officials in Kyiv have advised Ukrainians to brace for territorial setbacks in the coming months. Already, the Russian military has stepped up pressure on Kharkiv, forcing thousands of Ukrainians to flee out of fear that Russian forces could soon reoccupy their towns.

The ‘Inside Track’ Of Putin-Xi Jinping Talks – OpEd

In international diplomacy, summit meetings stand apart from regular high-level meetings when they are held at key moments or important junctures to reinforce partnerships and/or launch major initiatives.

The summit meeting at Beijing last Thursday between Chinese President Xi Jinping and Russian President Vladimir Putin last falls into such a category, taking place at a momentous juncture when a great shift in the global power dynamic is happening and the breathtaking spectacle of history in the making playing out in real time.